Covid-19 Economic & General Effects for PIs & PMs

[Frezzinghot]

Some people would say that might be scare mongering.

What is the logic put forward by those people?

Just the general commentary from Kiosaki & company about the crashing stockmarket

[Perry]

First NZ death recorded today. Bugger!

[Jeffa]

First NZ death recorded today. Bugger!

I really don't wish to be disrespectful as I am saddened for there loss,however every 90mins in New Zealand someone dies from heart disease.

https://www.heartfoundation.org.nz/statistics

I just want to put things into perspective.

[mrsaneperson]

Truly that is what is missing, its perspective. Instead we have replaced it with grotesque hysteria.

Currently as of 29.3.20 there are 32, 000 worldwide deaths from Covid-19. Over 1 year that's 128000. That's only 1/4 of the annual worldwide deaths that occur from flu. Yet for flu we have no medical Marshall law lock downs. No bankrupting of the economy. This is crazy stuff what's happening right now.
As jeffa said one person dies every 90 mins in NZ of a heart attack. There's your perspective.

If ever the lockdown does finish and those that still have a job, haven't committed suicide, fallen peril to financial collapse, depression, drugs or inactivity - returning back to the workforce will be a much scaled down event.

And what if the virus returns or some other mutation of it, what do we do, go into lockdown again, this time totally crippling the economy ?

The vaccine if it ever comes about, I'm sure it will. Who would want to take it? Prevention of something that only affects those with compromised health and over 70.

For sure if the common flu causes 4x more deaths than this Covid-19 virus does, there will be a lot of running for cover and red faces when finally it's realised the extreme insanity that has been brought upon us.

[Perry]

For sure if the common flu causes 4x more deaths than this Covid-19 virus does, there will be a lot of running for cover and red faces when finally it's realised the extreme insanity that has been brought upon us.

Optimist.

T'will be said that it would've been worse if not for the lockdown.

[motivated]

Convirus 19 effects on Migration and the Property Market

I am curious as to whether recent events have resulted in a nett increase or decrease in the permenant population of NZ. clearly if there is a big change either way it will impact on the supply and demand for residential property in NZ.
Does anyone have data on recent migration flows?
Im also wondering how many of the approx 650000 Kiwis will leave Australia for home because of the appalling lack of support for these people (taxpayers) by the Aussie Govt.

[elguapo]

Optimist.

T'will be said that it would've been worse if not for the lockdown.

Quite right. They will avoid accountability at all costs.

[Learning]

Traditionally birth rates drop in times of financial depression. Not exactly immediate impact on property.

[Sanya]

In a recent post I raised a question on whether the state will take back the ground its taken in the COVID-19 emergency measures.

It seems likely – to me at least – that Jacinda will win the upcoming election because it’s rare for “war-time” Prime Ministers not to be re-elected. Furthermore, there will be plenty more opportunities for the PM to be uppermost in the minds of many because this crisis we are all facing is not limited to a four week lockdown. Quarantines assist in breaking the chain of virus transmission. They do not cure the underlying problem.

In my opinion the general effects of COVID-19 for property investors will be wide-ranging.

1. Continuation of the rent freeze.
2. Increase the security of tenure for tenants who can’t meet their obligations.
3. Erosion of property rights with the prospect of a timed extension preventing landlords them from retaking possession of their rental properties.
4. After the election some form of wealth tax (not obviously labelled a CGT tax tough) largely targeted at asset holders. Gov needs extra income to recoup COVID-19 handouts. You will be paying it.

It’s really up to PI’s to chart a course through this. Most of us are playing a long game in property investment – so this is simply some gusty winds and rough surf….

[Jeffa]

In a recent post I raised a question on whether the state will take back the ground its taken in the COVID-19 emergency measures.

It seems likely – to me at least – that Jacinda will win the upcoming election because it’s rare for “war-time” Prime Ministers not to be re-elected. Furthermore, there will be plenty more opportunities for the PM to be uppermost in the minds of many because this crisis we are all facing is not limited to a four week lockdown. Quarantines assist in breaking the chain of virus transmission. They do not cure the underlying problem.

In my opinion the general effects of COVID-19 for property investors will be wide-ranging.

1. Continuation of the rent freeze.
2. Increase the security of tenure for tenants who can’t meet their obligations.
3. Erosion of property rights with the prospect of a timed extension preventing landlords them from retaking possession of their rental properties.
4. After the election some form of wealth tax (not obviously labelled a CGT tax tough) largely targeted at asset holders. Gov needs extra income to recoup COVID-19 handouts. You will be paying it.

It’s really up to PI’s to chart a course through this. Most of us are playing a long game in property investment – so this is simply some gusty winds and rough surf….

I might have a different angle in regards to the upcoming election and the longer it is delayed the better chance National will get in.

Unemployment will kick in,people will be hurting,you can only
accept kindness and huggs for so long when your partner is unemployed and the kids are going without.
People will find someone to blame once the lockdown is over and if life dosent return to normal.

The ones that will feel it the most are the core supporters of Labour.

Example:

2008 Global financial crisis Clark led government crushed buy the incoming Key government.
1987 although Labour had won by a small number of votes soon after the 1987 Wall Street sharemarket crash caused widespread unemployment in New Zealand,resulting in Labour getting smacked at the General election in 1990.

My guess is Labour knows this and will be backed into a corner if unemployment rises.

Either way people are going to be hurt come polling time

and there the ones that are going to be deciding the election.

You might want to note the polls were already tight before the beer virus.

[Sanya]

I might have a different angle in regards to the upcoming election and the longer it is delayed the better chance National will get in.

Unemployment will kick in,people will be hurting,you can only
accept kindness and huggs for so long when your partner is unemployed and the kids are going without.
People will find someone to blame once the lockdown is over and if life dosent return to normal.

The ones that will feel it the most are the core supporters of Labour.

Example:

2008 Global financial crisis Clark led government crushed buy the incoming Key government.
1987 although Labour had won by a small number of votes soon after the 1987 Wall Street sharemarket crash caused widespread unemployment in New Zealand,resulting in Labour getting smacked at the General election in 1990.

My guess is Labour knows this and will be backed into a corner if unemployment rises.

Either way people are going to be hurt come polling time

and there the ones that are going to be deciding the election.

You might want to note the polls were already tight before the beer virus.

Excellent post Jeffa.

I do agree, it is in Labour's interest to run the election as soon as possible. I doubt they will postpone it. It looks likely that the Republic of Singapore will also run a general election in the midst of Covid-19.

Between now and the GE, Labour will be like Santa Claus - with your money. Grant Robertson has already messaged that another economic package may be needed which is political code for one is under preparation in the wings.

People are already hurting, but the "beer virus" as you term it can be used as a scapegoat for a myriad of social ills.

For a rapidly growing number of New Zealanders, their only source of income will be a wage subsidy or benefit from the Government. Are people really going to vote against the hand that is feeding them?

Finally, to counter your argument I would point out that the majority of NZ Governments in recent history have been two term (or more).

[Perry]

For a rapidly growing number of New Zealanders, their only source of income will be a wage subsidy or benefit from the Government. Are people really going to vote against the hand that is feeding them?

The next gummint might well feed 'em more of the same.
Would not any coloured gummint do for such handouts?
The gNats may promise greater largesse during the hustings.
(Only an aspiration, of course!)

[Sanya]

[...]
The gNats may promise greater largesse during the hustings.

Indeed Perry, but for that to happen we’d actually need to hear from the Hon. Mr. Bridges.


He’s suspended any form of campaigning.

With a state of national emergency in place – and even after it’s lifted – “gNats” will struggle for attention and airtime.

The next gummint might well feed 'em more of the same.
Would not any coloured gummint do for such handouts? [...]

Perhaps, but as the old proverb goes, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

[motivated]

Seems like the Aussie govt will make a wage subsidy to Kiwis who have been in /are in employment but no benefits to unemployed kiwis. On that basis one would assume there may only be a tricke rather than a wave of kiwis coming home

[klauster]

For a rapidly growing number of New Zealanders, their only source of income will be a wage subsidy or benefit from the Government. Are people really going to vote against the hand that is feeding them?

And the govt is very good promoting the crisis mode.
But a hard landing isn’t avoidable when businesses not open again.