Covid-19 Economic & General Effects for PIs & PMs

[Jeffa]

All the stats are a week old. Every person testing positive today was infected a week ago. How many new people have these new cases infected between then and now?

From the 100 cases NZ had a week ago two people are in ICU today.
Of the 450 cases we have today 9-12 will need ICU beds next week.
How many new cases next week will need ventilators and ICU beds the week after that?

We have only so many ICU beds and ventilators. Once a critical patient's hooked up they're on it for two-three weeks. What happens when there's more critical patients than ventilators?

The lockdown limits the spread drastically. The longer people ignore the rules the more damage to the economy, job losses, economy collapse, depression, suicides, postponed elective surgeries, etc.

Trump is trying to put the economy ahead of the virus. How will that work when a quarter of his workforce is sick in bed. 16,800 new cases on Wednesday. 18,500 yesterday.

Fix the virus first. Then fix the economy.

From 2018..It's no different to any other influenza

https://www-newshub-co-nz.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2018/09/half-the-wellington-icu-patients-have-flu.amp.html?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15853901211106&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newshub.co.nz%2Fhome%2Fnew-zealand%2F2018%2F09%2Fhalf-the-wellington-icu-patients-have-flu.html

"It means we have less beds available to allow us to do complicated operations like heart surgery," Dr Young says.

My Wife is a nurse at middlemore, she says its no busier, if anything its quite but she said she is not allowed to discuss hospital matters.

[Learning]

According to Worldometer the death rate from infection is currently about 4.5% globally. (

601,519 infected,27,441 dead)

As I said, we are seeing those who were infected a week ago. What will the numbers look like in a week from now?

[Jeffa]

According to Worldometer the death rate from infection is currently about 4.5% globally. (

601,519 infected,27,441 dead)

As I said, we are seeing those who were infected a week ago. What will the numbers look like in a week from now?

Influenza has 3.5 million annually epidemics which
results in 250,000 to 500,000 deaths worldwide..mainly elderly and those with underlying health issues...every year..I repeat EVERY YEAR...China is already over 90% back to work...Why don't we shut the world down for influenza?

https://www.medscape.com/answers/219557-3459/what-is-the-global-incidence-of-influenza

[Learning]

I agree that the response has been to over the top but we're in it now and it's not going to be relaxed until the infections drop to near zero. Which isn't going to happen for a while if people keep going ignoring the rules to go mow their tenants lawns.

[artemis]

Interesting question for landlords. If income drops by 30% due to virus, they should be able to apply for the 12 week wage subsidy as self employed. Possibly at the part time rate. Shouldn't they? I would say it is worth applying, keeping good records in case spot checked.

The gov site says that people with more than one job can apply more than once. See FAQs at this link for details.

https://www.workandincome.govt.nz/products/a-z-benefits/employer-questions-and-answers.html#null

[Perry]

A bright note in the Sunday News. 50 people in NZ have recovered.

I have not seen any NZ deaths reported. Anyone else?

[Frezzinghot]

Probably because all the elderly are so shit scared of going ANYWHERE! Remember they are the demographic most at risk. It will attack them first if in fact this virus is as bad as the government is telling everyone.

[Frezzinghot]

Looking at the covid19 clock we can see that the death rate is comparable to the common flu. The actual death rate is between 0 to 0.2%, incredibly small for the following countries:Iceland, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Singapore, Sth AFRICA, Australia. NZ.. Other countries like Italy and Spain only have much higher death rates due to their much greater ageing population and many preexisting health conditions, coupled with bad smog in Northern Italy where most of the cases were reported. Italy has 3x respiratory problems as other European countries.

The lockdown in NZ will cause us much greater deaths and business failure. This Govt like many others around the world have bought into the hysteria

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Wow, a very common sense commentary, can we all share this to our friends and family so that common sense prevails and not this fear driven mantra by Jacinda and mates!

[donna]

Healthcare fails don't win elections, so I think the lockdown is the right action and what's interesting is thousands are still expected to die in NZ due to coronavirus and that's with the lockdown and I think if we didn't have it - it would be 20,000. Jacinda is not going to lose the election because of the lockdown, but she could have lost it if she didn't do it.

The business failure is the most worrying outcome as NZ is all about small businesses. It will be up to us though to support NZ business and when the lockdown lifts - I recommend choosing your local businesses over AUSSIE owned supermarkets.

Let's choose local - it's up to us the consumer to make the difference and put $$ into NZ businesses.

AUSSIE treats NZ residents poorly even through they pay taxes and they're not included in the coronavirus support. Plus, when it's time to show some empathy Scotty boy ignores Jacinda on the issue. We need to put our money where our mouth is and just do it aye.

cheers,

Donna

[Frezzinghot]

Have read some commentary around the world and by all accounts this recession will be bigger that the great depression in the 1930s, so yes this one is going to be BIG!

If i was the government I would get people back to work ASAP, this lockdown is no going to make it easy for anyone.

[Perry]

What's interesting is thousands are still expected to die in NZ due to coronavirus and that's with the lockdown and I think if we didn't have it - it would be 20,000.

Where has that notion sprung from?

The business failure is the most worrying outcome as NZ is all about small businesses. It will be up to us though to support NZ business and when the lockdown lifts - I recommend choosing your local businesses over AUSSIE owned supermarkets.

As all food outlets are open, what are you getting at?

As I see it, the biggest opportunistic rip-off is the Oz-owned banks. (Seemingly endorsed by taxcindarella tooth fairy). From what I can tell, the so-called mortgage holiday accrues interest and delays the final payt. date. Meantime, the banks get their money, in full, plus a bit more interest.

If taxcindarella tooth fairy et al can 'emergency legislate' against LLs in favour of tenants, why can't they 'emergency legislate' against banks in favour of mortgage holders?

Might be because the gummint's bank is an Oz-owned entity. Or that taxcindarella tooth fairy et al are terrified of the Oz-owned banks?

The aspect that most concerns me is that the colossal economic fall-out will not be shared equitably. Colloquially, those at the bottom of the socio-economic heap will suffer significantly and the most. Small & medium-sized businesses and lower waged / salaried earners are bearing the brunt. 80% of their usual wage / salary is all the displaced workers get during their workplace shutdown. The missing 20% is irrecoverable and will hurt. Parliament has been suspended for a month. I see no offer from our representatives to accept a 20% pay cut while on holiday.

I see no significant signs of discount - even deferment, or reining in expenditure - relief from the Rates levied by generally avaricious councils. Or any utility suppliers offering charges reductions. I.e. Telecons and electricity suppliers.

As the old Chinese saying has it: interesting times.

BTW, I'm sceptical of the foreign statistics that abound. Especially those coming from Chairman Mao's mates. One thing that the communist Chinese are unparalleled at is smiling, bare-faced lying.

[Perry]

Probably because all the elderly are so shit scared of going ANYWHERE! Remember they are the demographic most at risk. It will attack them first if in fact this virus is as bad as the government is telling everyone.

The 'official' charts beg to differ.



Keep in mind that those are simple numbers, it seems. No adjustments for proportion of the NZ population by percentage, unfortunately.

That aside, the twenty-year-olds do seem to need to be worried. (Compared to the 60+ age brackets.)

[Frezzinghot]

Where has that notion sprung from?


As all food outlets are open, what are you getting at?

As I see it, the biggest opportunistic rip-off is the Oz-owned banks. (Seemingly endorsed by taxcindarella tooth fairy). From what I can tell, the so-called mortgage holiday accrues interest and delays the final payt. date. Meantime, the banks get their money, if full, plus a bit more interest.

If taxcindarella tooth fairy et al can 'emergency legislate' against LLs in favour of tenants, why can't they 'emergency legislate' against banks in favour of mortgage holders?

Might be because the gummint's bank is an Oz-owned entity. Or that taxcindarella tooth fairy et al are terrified of the Oz-owned banks?

The aspect that most concerns me is that the colossal economic fall-out will not be shared equitably. Colloquially, those at the bottom of the socio-economic heap will suffer significantly and the most. Small & medium-sized businesses and lower waged / salaried earners are bearing the brunt. 80% of their usual wage / salary is all the displaced workers get during their workplace shutdown. The missing 20% is irrecoverable and will hurt. Parliament has been suspended for a month. I see no offer from our representatives to accept a 20% pay cut while on holiday.

I see no significant signs of discount - even deferment, or reining in expenditure - relief from the Rates levied by generally avaricious councils. Or any utility suppliers offering charges reductions. I.e. Telecons and electricity suppliers.

As the old Chinese saying has it: interesting times.

BTW, I'm sceptical of the foreign statistics that abound. Especially those coming from Chairman Mao's mates. One thing that the communist Chinese are unparalleled at is smiling, bare-faced lying.

[Minz]

The 'official' charts beg to differ.



Keep in mind that those are simple numbers, it seems. No adjustments for proportion of the NZ population by percentage, unfortunately.

That aside, the twenty-year-olds do seem to need to be worried. (Compared to the 60+ age brackets.)

Remember that at this point in time, most cases are in returning travellers. The minority are relatives or community based, thus this chart could change if community spread becomes larger - now that we like to concentrate many of our wiser / older / more vulnerable in the same locations (rest homes, retirement villages). I am trusting that NZ has acted early and will stop the transmission FOR NOW. Heaven only knows how some of the small businesses will ever recover, the financial pain will have crippled many. I have already seen two go down and another really good business under threat ("saveable" IF the lock-down doesn't extend and really money can flow easily).

[Chris W]

Have read some commentary around the world and by all accounts this recession will be bigger that the great depression in the 1930s, so yes this one is going to be BIG!

Some people would say that might be scare mongering.

What is the logic put forward by those people?