Property investors to blame for NZ's high house prices.....

[Davo36]

What's the best cure for high prices?
High prices.
But that works in a free market - not what we have unfortunately.

Well this used to be the case.

BUT when you have:

1) A globalised world - so that anyone in any country in the world is able to buy here (although curtailed recently).

2) Ever lower interest rates.

3) Massive, unending immigration.


It's hard to see prices coming down.

[OnTheMove]

I tend to think there is a lot of truth in the article, even if written poorly. And I agree with a lot that has been said by Donna and the likes, however;

Investors on here ALWAYS point the finger else where and those that call them out are elitisised by the gurus with facs and figure and frankly waffle.

Why did Auck stop growing? Kick back in the in the resistant line in Shares terms.

Why once Auck stopped growing did Welli double its medium + within 3 years?

Why is my friend in Dunedin selling her house for $200k more than the RV, making it 250% in 7 years.

You really think kiwis are the ones setting ridiculous prices even during a pandemic?

[Chris W]

It's hard to see prices coming down.

Davo36,

What about now?

[OnTheMove]

Davo36,

What about now?

IMO it depends where the 15-25% unemployed will live, but id guess of that 90% will live in Auckland which provides above average incomes. I see parts of Welli losing 40-50%, the same, if not more in Dunedin.

I have a friend selling for $140k above GV, she stands to make $350k from her $20k deposit on $120k. She almost sold it. But time is of the essence. It shall be fun seeing these markets that us hollier than thou investors had no part in over inflating over the next 24 months.

my2c, of course I dont have a crystal ball.

[McDuck]

Well this used to be the case.

BUT when you have:

1) A globalised world - so that anyone in any country in the world is able to buy here (although curtailed recently).

2) Ever lower interest rates.

3) Massive, unending immigration.


It's hard to see prices coming down.

I really don't think those factors are totally to blame for the house situation before the C19 event.
Just look at how people reacted to toilet paper a few weeks back.
How do you explain that in terms of the "price, supply and demand driver" model?

Possibly you could also compare that to the baby milk powder issue from a few years back.
To get a wider picture.

[Davo36]

Davo36,

What about now?

Hmmm jury is still out IMHO.

House prices have been crazy for over 5 years, but they haven't come back because of the things I mention above.

Immigration is probably going to fall off a cliff. But the OCR has been lowered a lot. And NZ may look attractive to overseas buyers once again shortly.

The banks, the reserve bank and the government will all work in tandem to do their best to keep the property market afloat. Because if it falls, the economy is really screwed, much more so than by some virus. They may or may not be successful.

So I'm not sure if prices will go down by any meaningful amount or not.

[Frezzinghot]

Hmmm jury is still out IMHO.

House prices have been crazy for over 5 years, but they haven't come back because of the things I mention above.

Immigration is probably going to fall off a cliff. But the OCR has been lowered a lot. And NZ may look attractive to overseas buyers once again shortly.

The banks, the reserve bank and the government will all work in tandem to do their best to keep the property market afloat. Because if it falls, the economy is really screwed, much more so than by some virus. They may or may not be successful.

So I'm not sure if prices will go down by any meaningful amount or not.

Im going to wait on the sidelines and watch for the next 2-3 months, should be enough time to get a clear enough picture, then Im going to pounch!

[Davo36]

Im going to wait on the sidelines and watch for the next 2-3 months, should be enough time to get a clear enough picture, then Im going to pounch!

I'm looking at a Papakura commercial property, I must be nuts!

[Perry]

Squirrels like 'em, David.

[Chris W]

I'm looking at a Papakura commercial property, I must be nuts!

Davo36,

Isn't that located in the same area as your existing commercial property?

[Frezzinghot]

I'm looking at a Papakura commercial property, I must be nuts!

Must be some good deals about to appear though, better than any other time in history! Its just really about the timing and not going too early IMHO. All my ducks are in a row for the first time in a long time so being ready and finding the deal of the century are 2 different things. Will it be easier this time?

I have fond(not) memories of the GFC when the banks were not to keen to lend to me, know that I have some assets behind me its a lirttle easier but still they like to place some hoops in front of you.

[Frezzinghot]

Davo36,

Isn't that located in the same area as your existing commercial property?

The papakura thing is a difficult one!, I grew up there and have seen many changes. Its smack bang in the middle of some very big developments going on around it. 1st off there is the Drury township and development currently starting, Karaka is another growth area and Takanini has taken off, that will slow now because of the flu pandemic but I predict they will all go ahead eventually in about 3 - 5yrs from now. It almost looks as if the township was left behind, mostly due to the council stuffing the roading and infrastructure up, there must be the biggest number of damn lights per 2km radius that I have ever seen and it deters shoppers from going there, I have mentions this a few times to their councillors but they are too stupid to take my advice, anyway if those woodenheads can get the roading right, get rid of those $2 shops and get some good restaurants/cafes they will do well. You have to remember its position in south auckland, it is right to the left of the southern motorway so has good access. So I see a bright future in the council can get its shit together and get rid of those lights and create more parking spaces.

[chook]

"So I'm not sure if prices will go down by any meaningful amount or not." Davo36

Rest assured...Prices will fall by a meaningful amount moving forward

[Wayne]

"So I'm not sure if prices will go down by any meaningful amount or not." Davo36

Rest assured...Prices will fall by a meaningful amount moving forward

How much is meaningful?
On what basis do you make this prediction?