Three numbers, I only need three numbers.

[McDuck]

I just need three numbers to see where we stand.

How many houses are consented in a month.

How many people arrive in a month.

How long it takes to build a house.


That's the rough picture.

I can then polish it with details like, how many people die in a month, how many people fit per dwelling etc.
Maybe a regional breakdown.

So I got this.

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK1911/S00146/auckland-housing-supply-catching-up-with-shortfall.htm

[sidinz]

No, you need more than three numbers.

I saw an opinion piece recently that espoused the idea that according to the number of building consents, we have plenty of housing so shouldn't have a shortage.

But it got me wondering how many of those consents are for replacing existing houses (that have been removed, demolished or burnt down) rather than completely new stock.

Given how many older houses in (for example) Auckland are being removed or pulled down for townhouse developments or someone's dream home, I'm sure that consent numbers alone would tell a distorted story.

[artemis]

1. Consents info here

https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/building-consents-issued-november-2019

2. Monthly net migration here under the Migration heading

https://www.stats.govt.nz/all-topics/

3. It depends.

Consents - they don't all get built. Colliers reported last year that 49 Auckland apartment developments consented 2018 did not proceed.

Migration - number of New Zealanders leaving is a factor as their departure increases the housing pool usually.