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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
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    15,106

    Default Keep Kalm & Karry On

    Quote Originally Posted by spaceman View Post
    dohhhhhhhhhhhhh! One of my pet hates!!!. No such thing as 10 -20% below MV. The price it sells at IS THE MV BY DEFINITION....it has to be.
    Fair point.

    Perhaps we need a new set of initials in this cool, calm and collected thread?

    EMV = estimated market value.


    Now, puts Mod hat on.

    Please guys and gals, take a deep breath [or several] before clicking the [submit] button.

    What's needed is for someone to prove that they have - akin to the average person - borrowed from a bank, 90-100% of the cost / value of the shares which were purchased with that loan.
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  2. #42
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
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    789

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by spaceman View Post
    Not according to ElgaupoÖÖÖ. OK I'll bite.....what shares have you owned that increased in value by 100% in a month Ö.and of course
    what shares have you owned that increased in value by 100% in a day????

    I never said shares and property was apples vs apples.


    That $250k loan, what is the security???....is it just the shares or something else??

    I agree that liquidity is indeed an advantage of the share marketÖ..most of the time



    it is a given that shares out perform property. But leverage amplifies any gains. Lets take 70% for shares (from ASB max) and 95% for property (also ASB max)

    $100 in shares @ 70% lev and 10% return will give you 30% ROI....not too shabby...ÖÖ$30 gets you $10 profit
    $100 in property @ 95% lev and 10% return will give you 200% ROI....waaaaaaayyyyyyyy less shabby than 30%...Ö $5 gets you $10 profit

    Given the above leverage how much does shares have to out perform property to give the same ROI????

    If property goes up 10% shares would have to climb by 60%...ÖÖ.now how often does the share market out perform shares buy a multiple of 6???.

    Of course I'm well aware of other factors such as holding costs of property vs shares and income on property vs dividends from shares. But the simple fact is that due to the easy leverage advantage of property vs shares, in the real world property will out performs shares. In Elgaupo's world rain is lemonade and rivers are tomato sauce and Öyou can achieve the same leverage with share as you can with property. You can actually go a lot higher in many cases.ÖÖ.

    Ö.maybe Ö.maybe not Ö..IDK

    Cheers
    Spaceman
    I donít disagree property here in NZ like many nations is by far the best leveraged investment one can do ... I,ve done many great property trades over the years where when you put down % return on capital invested and time are just brilliant...

    Now thatís of course why we now locally have to pay $300k+ plus for section not much bigger that driveways ..only 3yrs ago you could buy much better located 2x-3x larger sections for just over a third the cost..

    Now is this going to continue... I think not for some time (think we will go along the Japanese road after their property bubble)

    Yes I use our own debt free RES property for equity for the 250k (actually only 200k is in the market the other 50k is invested in a small vending business that pays all the costs of the trading company)

    Otherwise I would be paying much more than the 3.7%

    We also use our RES equity for a commercial property (which is paying its self off at around 6% per year)

    The share thatís gone up 100% since start of DEC = WWI.asx from .6c and touched 1.2c on Friday

    The equity that went up 100% in a day was a share option (which you can buy just like a share on the ASX)
    Canít remember of the top of my head

    Best return was share option SSNO just under 1000% in under a year hold

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    15,106

    Default

    A stuff item, of underwhleming note.

    Not to be read on a full stomach.

    Or too soon before breakfast.
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  4. #44
    Join Date
    Apr 2018
    Posts
    225

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JBM View Post
    Now is this going to continue... I think not for some time (think we will go along the Japanese road after their property bubble)
    Exactly, thats all the guys were trying to say, if you are a one trick Pony, ie NZ RE, yes you would have done well in last 20 years. But the resistance line is looming and whether that is the stimulus for correction, nobody knows. All we do know is that median multiples (of income) are ludicrously high and in some towns where the work and the capita just dont justify the prices. I think the GFC was missed by everyone and had Key not printed money we would have lost more like 30-40%. If something of that nature occurs again, even something much smaller, NZ with its lending to GDP ratio just cannot borrow to save NZ again. But nobody can predict the future, but common sense can be applied and a median house price of 70% increase in 3 years in Dunedin doesnt take a more than common sense to realise $630k median house price in such a town is pushing that resistant line. Its like expecting fossil fuels to be unlimited. The push back in affordability in that market is the production of affordable electric cars like the Nissan Leaf (the best selling electric car on the global market), id rather have a tesla but not for 2.5x the price haha.

    So all that was suggested is that shares are another option outside property as you have shown and yes they are able to be leveraged, perhaps not to the level of some banks for property AT THE MOMENT.

    I bought a property and it will only return 3.7%, but the alternative was a crappy flat in the city that was costing me more on interest only. So as a PPOR I have zero interest in its yield.

    My Aus Super on other hand Im trying to see what I can do there, Id like to be able to use it to buy my end game property. But not sure if I can buy international property under SMSF.

    Quote Originally Posted by Perry View Post
    EMV = estimated market value.
    .
    Hehe thats pretty much a given right? Hence no reply, just a deep sigh. A massive database of houses sold in the area, worked out what i ESTIMATED to be MV and paid MV. Or I could have paid the RV for another $200k, would that have been MV? NO.

    For me its more useful in terms of reno and sell in a flat market. In a bullish market outside Auckland it would be pretty darn hard to aquire Id think?
    Last edited by Perry; 06-01-2020 at 07:05 PM. Reason: fixed quoted text

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Apr 2018
    Posts
    225

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Perry View Post
    A stuff item, of underwhleming note.

    Not to be read on a full stomach.

    Or too soon before breakfast.
    They didnt really suggest a rate did they? CGT I have no issue with, am use to it in Aus. Wealth tax, well it will never effect me haha. But does seem a bit like, you can be a capitalist but we will restrict you.

    Heck a property correction is enough of a concern to be worrying about wealth tax.

    I do believe pensions should be assett tested. Who was that mazillionaire who is claiming the pension and was laughing at us all about it ? I think Gareth Morgans policies while unpopular do resolve the need for increasing tax to pay for pensions.

    Will Boomers be the last Gen to see pensions?

  6. #46
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    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
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    Default Tall Poppy Syndrome

    Quote Originally Posted by OnTheMove View Post
    I think Gareth Morgan's policies, while unpopular do resolve the need for increasing tax to pay for pensions.
    The problem with "cat man moregun" and others of his ilk is that they are symptom-chasers; they are certainly not cause-considerers.

    As an illustration, how often do we hear from taxpayer-cash-splurging gummints and ratepayer-cash-splurging councils that they need to increase revenue?

    Weekly? Daily? Monthly?

    How often do we hear from taxpayer-cash-splurging gummints and ratepayer-cash-splurging councils that they need to become more efficient, cost-effective and decrease expenditure?

    Never? Never? And never.

    Empire builders all.

    Hypocritical, cretinous scum, the lot of 'em. Comrade socio-commies et al.
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  7. #47
    Join Date
    Apr 2018
    Posts
    225

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Perry View Post
    The problem with "cat man moregun" and others of his ilk is that they are symptom-chasers; they are certainly not cause-considerers.
    Perhaps, but you do love your Gum-Nits Perry ;-p

    I think the pension one was a future cause consideration, ie Auckland being over run with immigrants with no jobs who cant pay Auckland rents so cant pay the taxes to feed Boomers retirement. In that regard I think its a simple plan that the majority who aren't uber wealthy will agree with and even the guys who are rich really dont need the pittance it provides. but to some its what they need to survive, elderly with no income but are freehold etc.

    Also at least he puts his money where his mouse is. As you know the Mrs is a double Dr in Biology/Zoology and has passed this on to me via my many unfit volunteer trips for Ecological projects, so Im with him on eradicating Cats. Even the fattest cat can catch endangered reptiles or birds that are all around our suburban areas. But this one seemed impossible with the mice so dense they were feeding off the Albatross, live. But the team won and for that I say good on ya Morgs. A man unlike the D head who was showing off that he claims the fiscal tax based pension, he does not and believes its morally wrong, I cant find fault with that.

    Who knows if assett testing meant the personal debt to GDP ratio was lower then thats a good thing for protection of the Bloomberg "effect" (my new terminology for the phenomena haha)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEE81x7aHI4

  8. #48
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    1,689

    Default

    I was of the opinion that the "more equal" times in recent memory that people keep harking back to were a 'golden age' that was never to be repeated and that things were regressing to the historical norm (however unpalatable it might seem to many) of there being great inequality.

    I based this on these observations:
    - that the same pattern was being seen across the allied nations of WWII which all would have benefitted from reparation monies flowing in, during this era
    - NZ had a protectionist scheme of 1) guaranteed exports to the UK at high prices and 2) high trade tariffs which kept local goods expensive and wages to produce them high
    - that until the world wars, there had always, for centuries (if not millennia) been big gaps between the rich and the poor

    Then I found this article and realised that my beliefs/observations were the tip of the iceberg: Catastrophe and Equality

    More on the theme

    So it would seem that inequality is the natural order of things, no matter how undesirable that may seem to egalitarian NZ. Which brings up questions of should we try to artificially alter it, to construct a more equal society in when people are simply not born with equal abilities and ambitions and how would we do that without punishing the people who work hard to build up what they have?
    Last edited by sidinz; 07-01-2020 at 03:11 PM.
    My blog. From personal experience.
    http://statehousinginnz.wordpress.com/

  9. #49
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    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by sidinz View Post
    So it would seem that inequality is the natural order of things, no matter how undesirable that may seem to egalitarian NZ. Which brings up questions of should we try to artificially alter it, to construct a more equal society in when people are simply not born with equal abilities and ambitions and how would we do that without punishing the people who work hard to build up what they have?
    When you have the answer to that, you will be a redoubtable guru, wise beyond measure. (But one whom Taxcindarella and Klump Jump Jong from NK will not be consulting.)

    Think of the parable of the talents. And . . .

    "For always there will be greater and lesser persons than you."

    That's the problem with socialism. It's a fake pie-in-the-sky fantasy nostrum, conceived by the woolly-headed, separated-from-reality do-gooders, of which there are far too many.

    One only has to look at places that are or were communist or some sort of hybrid. The 'system' worked only by fear, enforced by an army of secret service agents. Plus the "some more equal than others" syndrome, etc. On and on it could go.
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  10. #50
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
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    15,106

    Default What Do You Make of Them?

    A couple of passably interesting filler articles while the fake media people are still mostly on holiday.

    Record-breaking end to 2019 for property market, Realestate.co.nz says
    7 Jan 2020
    Quote Originally Posted by Stuff
    New Zealand's property market rounded off 2019 firmly in sellers' hands, new data from property listings website Realestate.co.nz shows. It experienced a record national average asking price of $703,780 in December and record lows in new listings and total homes available for sale. Spokeswoman Vanessa Taylor said it was the first time the site had recorded all three milestones in one month.

    "There have been years where we have seen a combination of two, but never all three. Low stock, teamed with high asking prices sees us close out the decade as a strong sellers' market," she said.

    House prices will continue their steady growth in 2020, but let's wait and see about this election
    5 Jan 2020
    Quote Originally Posted by Stuff
    OPINION: After an unprecedented five years of growth, the high end residential market experienced some speed wobbles over the past two years. The main reasons for the slow down were the introduction of a foreign buyer ban and a new Labour-led government that campaigned on slowing the market, which resulted in a loss of confidence.

    We believe the five or so years of mega growth was the 'correction'. Before 2012-13 high end property, especially Auckland waterfront property, was hugely undervalued. Over the past year and a half the market has found its way back to steady and sustainable growth.
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