2020 Predictions

[Perry]

I will start to introduce discounts for quality tenants and advertise as such (read higher rates for undesirable tenants).

How will you get around s32(2)?

[OnTheMove]

Im looking at Wellington and trying to justify the cost.

Auckland hit the push back line in the median and just keeps bouncing back down when it goes near breaking through.

So everybody sold, used the inflated equity and picked some tasty hanging fruit elsewhere to invest in.

Wellington East median $964000.

Welli a mere 200k residence. Which has not changed dramatically ever. Slow steady crawl for Gum-Nits jobs.

Given it is awfully close to Auckland Centrals median, I just cant justify that cost other than people jumping on the band wagon like Welli was the new Bit-Coin with a double in median between 14'-17' (that is a bit wild), only Windy, Rainy, Hilly, but flappn good spearfishing out Makara way on the side.

Auckland has had its correction, its now bouncing up and down possibly for another 7 years which will be the great crash everyone predicted, excepted it was a small crash and a long plateau.

I do not see that happening in Areas like Welli where the population doesnt demand it and the next fav on the list with investors was Dunners with a Median of $522k where what seems not so long ago $120k got you something quite tasty.

If I was to predict a crash which I refuse to as whilst Bloomberg had the right reasons, nobody has a time frame, by NZs economy alone Id pick parts of Welli and Dunedin to cool and crash. I think any said crashes will occur in pockets of every town outside of Auckland and possibly a slight decrease of the recent upward trend of the bouncing Auck market. But there aren't many towns left in the 15%pa plus range and those that are, do not have the population to warrant care factor.

Id have expected Aucks semi crash to have rippled to its siblings by now, but given these areas are still rising Im seeing that as worse not a good thing.

Predictions are so over rated though, where is the cheapest place to buy a crystal ball?

[Perry]

. . . where is the cheapest place to buy a crystal ball?

New? Or second-hand?

[OnTheMove]

New? Or second-hand?

Has to be Used/second hand Perry. What would be the fun in a new one, it would spout out REA Propaganda or if it was a negative one it may turn on me and spout out Bloomberg dooms day.

I think you have to train a Crystal ball, much like a Dragon

The real issue would be Politeness in naming said Crystal Ball, we wouldnt want to offend either side of that spectrum by actually making a prediction hahaha

[Bob Kane]

My prediction:
Some new, fresh-faced, lying scammer will step up and claim to be NZs leading property educator in the style of Richmastery of a few years back.
In a rising market these types come to the front.
Be on guard.
They will use social media to their advantage and break most of the ethical rules surrounding property investing.

[BlueSky]

Old prediction.
There are so many these days I have lost count.

[BlueSky]

I predict there will be more new investors piling in than ever before, some "boomers" cashing it in. The old long term buy and hold doesn't quite work with the new millenniums as in everything they do. Get rich quick schemes will be everywhere.

Third tier lenders will thrive in this market and we all know what this is a sign of...

Need deep pockets for developments with ever increasing costs so more developers going under replaced by more joint -"ventures of social (crown) and social/ community housing providers.

NZ has a love affair of buying and selling properties, fueled by social media and so called "property expert spruikers".
The game is getting tougher though, brought in by unprecedented changes working against landlords.

[Perry]

Anyone want to speculate / predict that the current clown-clone crop of socio-commies will start 'making noises' about residential rent controls?

Or just announce it with no warning?

[Keys]

How will you get around s32(2)?

Does not apply.

[Hound]

Later 2020. The return of junk bonds, being pedaled by former, now washed up celebrities.

Labour will up the annual subsidy to kiwisaver to $2000, on the condition they are voted back in.

[donna]

My prediction:
Some new, fresh-faced, lying scammer will step up and claim to be NZs leading property educator in the style of Richmastery of a few years back.
In a rising market these types come to the front.
Be on guard.
They will use social media to their advantage and break most of the ethical rules surrounding property investing.

I wonder about this - don't you think they'll be wary of a hefty fine now there's the case law precedent with Fong?

I agree social media will be their 'friend' for marketing - and may slip through the net of the ASA.

cheers,

Donna

[OnTheMove]

My prediction:
Some new, fresh-faced, lying scammer will step up and claim to be NZs leading property educator in the style of Richmastery of a few years back.

Haha so true.

What are some DeBunked prophets?

Easy business model, state the obvious, use google to firm up the age old methodology with your own twist on it, Charge shed loads to be a member.

Auckland should see a modest increase imo, given its plateud since 2016 while small Cities and towns have had ridiculous gains (Welli doubled median in 3 years).

On that note, people said Aucklands mini correction will ripple through to the rest of NZ in a couple of years, that hasnt occured yet. Im wondering when it will? And what is the affordability multiple for such cities that dont have the income potential of Auck?

[jack2016]

I predict a millennial uprising - blaming boomers for everything that millennials want but can't get for free - passing laws to ban combustion engine vehicles and consumption of meat, fueling importation of lots of batteries and veges. What effect that has on house prices I don't know.

[Perry]

Has anyone predicted the General Election outcome, so far?

[elguapo]

I predict a millennial uprising - blaming boomers for everything that millennials want but can't get for free - passing laws to ban combustion engine vehicles and consumption of meat, fueling importation of lots of batteries and veges. What effect that has on house prices I don't know.

A repeat of the cultural revolution? That would be interesting.