2020 Predictions

[chook]

CHRISTMAS ARRIVES EARLY IN THE U.S, 2020
The fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points (0.5%)in an unprecedented move .

*WHAT WE KNEW:A cut was expected at the March Fed meeting .Would it be 25 or 50 basis points was the question.

*THE CURVEBALL: It arrived early

They are now at the 1% lower bound for the Fed Fund rates .The actions that have been taken here are historic .This was a desperate move.

UNDERSTAND VERY CLEARLY WHAT THIS MEANS
When the derivatives start to unravel
Once the upside down pyramid begins to tumble
Once the cascade occurs
We can expect even more money printing because interest rates will already likely be at 0%

The perfect storm.....

Jeffa is onto it although he/she are partly mad, whereas the rest of you are all experts after the event.
The Titanic has hit the iceberg, the band is still playing, everyone felt a bump..
Forget little NZ, its all playing out in the US with record Dow, out of control Repo market and massive debt which the Govt guarantees (thats a whole nother story!) Deutsche bank & HSBC bankrupt already and that is the tip of the iceberg. This was all playing out before the beer virus appeared on the scene, the virus is just acting as a trigger currently
Massive upheaval ahead.
Read carefully...Gold & Silver Bullion.

[Jeffa]

All central banks are actively engaging in stimulating in response to the growing crisis which has emerged on top of the economic slowdown..NOW THEY HAVE THE PERFECT EXCUSE...the problem is that they have been stimulating the market for 10 years...THERE EXHAUSTED they need a break..but they won't get it..MORE INTERVENTION WILL OCCUR of course...because this is the name of the game!..INJECT FIAT CURRENCY INTO THE SYSTEM...BUY ASSETS OF ALL KINDS and displace real individuals...INFLATE THE CURRENCY and put further and further control into the hands of a few....SUCCESS!!!

[Davo36]

All central banks are actively engaging in stimulating in response to the growing crisis which has emerged on top of the economic slowdown..NOW THEY HAVE THE PERFECT EXCUSE...the problem is that they have been stimulating the market for 10 years...THERE EXHAUSTED they need a break..but they won't get it..MORE INTERVENTION WILL OCCUR of course...because this is the name of the game!..INJECT FIAT CURRENCY INTO THE SYSTEM...BUY ASSETS OF ALL KINDS and displace real individuals...INFLATE THE CURRENCY and put further and further control into the hands of a few....SUCCESS!!!

Or they could just let a recession take place. Let assets drop in value, to something more realistic.

The cure for high prices is high prices. Unless you have idiots doing what you say above.

[Jeffa]

Over 60% of kiwis own there home..an election over 6 months away, its political suicide if they start loosing value on there *Assets *...Tony Alexander says they may loosen Lvrs...desperate times call for desperate measures...lvrs will be loosened.....

[Keys]

Here's a prediction, interest rates for mortgage borrowers will be advertised @2.89 %in the next 12 to 18 months....

An interestingly accurate guess.

[Jeffa]

Does this affect the cost for NZ banks to borrow long term, will this mean lower rates for us at the 5 year end ??????????????

https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/103927/red-bank-takes-sharp-knife-its-three-four-and-five-year-fixed-home-loan-rates-making

[Bluecoat]

And house price inflation- no impact, small impact or big impact down the line ?

[Jeffa]

And house price inflation- no impact, small impact or big impact down the line ?

Word on the underground is this was meant to happen..your leader doesn't were red lipstick ..your true master is J.Powell..The regions time in the sun is soon to be over,job losses, people heading to the big smoke for work,Auckland, Christchurch, Wellington will get big capital gains in the next 3 years with interest rates dropping to low 2%..the housing cycle repeats...the storm's coming..look at historically global recessions..who always wins??..THE RICH.

[Jeffa]

If you follow the money...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/imf-announces-50-billion-program-for-coronavirus-relief.html

It always leads to Wallstreet....

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/05/asia-markets-wall-street-imf-package-coronavirus-currencies.html

[McDuck]

If you follow the money...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/imf-announces-50-billion-program-for-coronavirus-relief.html

It always leads to Wallstreet....
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/05/asia...urrencies.html

yes, maybe.

but what is this Powell creature.


What sort of lego blocks is he made from?

What are his internal meme ingredients, if you catch my meaning.

and this business of him going to a Jesuit Prep school.

Are they still operational?

The Jesuits I mean.

And what's their agenda?

Or are they, like so many old orders, just an empty husk of money focussed self interest groups ?

And how much sway can a man have in the shape of the world , what with so many people an places going in their own directions.

And let's not forget the black swans.

And can the everyday man in the street, who's just trying to pay a mortgage and send their kids to school do anything about it anyway?

What an interesting web.

All very Da Vinci Code.

[Davo36]

If you follow the money...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/imf-announces-50-billion-program-for-coronavirus-relief.html

It always leads to Wallstreet....
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/05/asia...urrencies.html

Yep, this is bang on.

[Jeffa]

Phase 3....

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/business/stock-market-covid-19.html

[Jeffa]

Let the printing begin...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-05/u-s-mortgage-rates-sink-to-a-record-low-on-coronavirus-fears

[McDuck]

Let the printing begin...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...onavirus-fears

They seem a bit silly to me.

If you get your global manufacturing engines shutting down, sure you need get things flowing locally.
but is the cash going to end up in the right pace?

Wouldn't you need to carefully pump the cash in to the right sectors, rather than just letting the housing sector and the bank cats get it?

[Bluecoat]

Monetary stimulus is useless against a genuine supply shock and and demand for new credit collapses.

Growth was already weakening for other reasons than COVID-19.
Monetary tools are not designed for these kind of situations.
Any further rate cuts will only lead to bigger debt bubble.

So this thing could fast track the eventual day of reckoning or we enter survival mode (throw everything all at once , stimulus, surplus (at local governance level ) cheap credit etc etc until such time the great RESET occurs.