Originally posted by Perry
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2020 Predictions
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If Labour get another turn . . . the new age boat people - senior citizens leaving Auckland.
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Its a pretty exciting year, a lot could happen. And a lot of what happens will be determined by out of the blue unforeseen events.
The fires in Ausie an example.
I predict the Winston will not make 5% this time around, due to people finally realising and getting sick of him and Jones corrupt politics.
But National still losing under Bridges and greens and labour ruling.
Unless Luxon gets in, and then National will win, even with greens making 5%.
I predict Luxons power would prevail even over Jacinda's perfectly timed wedding photo's (say 5% nett gain).
I predict one OCR increase at end of year, and Interest rates longer term ones, slightly increasing from June.
I predict Auckland property market recover entrenched from November 2019, and stable through the year, with maybe up to 5% rise and settles down at that level.
Don't be fooled it already has improved around 5% to 10%.
I predict the Trump China issues to be resolved and a non issue by end of the year.
I predict Trump to get back in.
These is all my guesswork predictions.
I also think that 2020 is a big year, something big is going to happen, don't know what it is though, just a feeling.
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Originally posted by Bluekiwi View PostI also think that 2020 is a big year, something big is going to happen, don't know what it is though, just a feeling.
Squadly dinky do!
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Here's a source for updates. It's been around since 2003 SARS being a more severe strain.Email Sign Up - New Discussions, Monthly Newsletter, About PropertyTalk
BusinessBlogs - the best business articles are found here
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Originally posted by Bluekiwi View PostI predict one OCR increase at end of year, and Interest rates longer term ones, slightly increasing from June.
I predict Auckland property market recover entrenched from November 2019, and stable through the year, with maybe up to 5% rise and settles down at that level.
Don't be fooled it already has improved around 5% to 10%.
I forsee these over heated pockets in small cities being the catalyst for the rest of the country finally feeling the ripple from Auckland and corrections occuring, but in pockets.
Originally posted by donna View PostHere's a source for updates. It's been around since 2003 SARS being a more severe strain.Last edited by OnTheMove; 23-01-2020, 12:11 PM.
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Interesting to reflect / look back two years, to January 2018.
Westpac's New Zealand economics team is warning house prices will fall gradually for the next four years
Those damned econ-o-mists and their crystal-ball-gazing antics again!
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Originally posted by Perry View PostInteresting to reflect / look back two years, to January 2018.
Westpac's New Zealand economics team is warning house prices will fall gradually for the next four years
Those damned econ-o-mists and their crystal-ball-gazing antics again!Squadly dinky do!
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Westpac has always, at least since 2003, based their property market predictions, solely on interest rates.
Their prediction 2 years ago, based once again on interest rates going up, and then they didn't and now they change their view on house prices.
Its pretty pathetic really.
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In his book, The Death of Economics, Professor Paul Ormerod was scathing on this matter.
He said something like: "there is no valid reason of any sort why a bank would employ an econ-o-mist."
Prof. Ormerod referred to econ-o-mists as "economic soothsayers - after the fact."
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Softening GDP, leading to less demand on resources, reduces inflation pressure, so interest rates would need to be kept lower for longer, to stimulate inflation and economic growth.
So now it depends on how big this becomes and fast it is resolved.
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Originally posted by OnTheMove View PostWill this latest virus outbreak in China impact interest rates though?
China is a MAJOR source of our economy either via our exports or our Tourism.
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