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  1. #81
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Torbay, Auckland
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    3,938

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wayne View Post
    I wouldn't worry about what Shamubeel says - he is wrong on most things.
    If he make a call and is wrong he just shrugs his sholders - if Adrian make a call and gets it wrong he can stuff up the country.
    The Sham is the worst so called Economist I have ever seen, don't know why he gets so much public attention.

    So if OCR goes down .5% how much can they really drop interest rates.
    There is a point when depositors wont keep depositing, is it 2% ???

    Where do you put money if you cant put it in shares or deposits.
    Paul Magill B.com
    Bluekiwi Property Consulting

  2. #82
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    10,598

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bluekiwi View Post
    The Sham is the worst so called Economist I have ever seen, don't know why he gets so much public attention.

    So if OCR goes down .5% how much can they really drop interest rates.
    There is a point when depositors wont keep depositing, is it 2% ???

    Where do you put money if you cant put it in shares or deposits.
    And the deposit bit is the conumdrum that the banks have.
    Banks don't use the OCR for long rates. Under the rules they have to more closely match borrowing and lending terms (rules since the GFC caught them out when they borrowed short and lent long). The OCR is a daily rate so you can't use that for 1yr terms.
    Long terms are driven but what it costs them to borrow for the same terms - so term deposits and overseas.

  3. #83
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Torbay, Auckland
    Posts
    3,938

    Default

    Yep, got that, but they change rates and consumers expect rate changes, using OCR change as the trigger point for that.
    Of course in reality its really what longer term funding costs are for them related to the Fed and international money markets, for those longer rates.

    I see a point where a global slow down sends longer funding costs lower for longer, but their also comes a point like the GFC where risk aversion affects supply of funds to NZ and the cost of that funding rises substantially.



    I am just coming up for renewal in early May for 1.7m so considering very hard whether to go 3.35 18 months, or lock in a 5 year rate, in case things get bad.
    Paul Magill B.com
    Bluekiwi Property Consulting

  4. #84
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    365

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    CHRISTMAS ARRIVES EARLY IN THE U.S, 2020
    The fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points (0.5%)in an unprecedented move .

    *WHAT WE KNEW:A cut was expected at the March Fed meeting .Would it be 25 or 50 basis points was the question.

    *THE CURVEBALL: It arrived early

    They are now at the 1% lower bound for the Fed Fund rates .The actions that have been taken here are historic .This was a desperate move.

    UNDERSTAND VERY CLEARLY WHAT THIS MEANS
    When the derivatives start to unravel
    Once the upside down pyramid begins to tumble
    Once the cascade occurs
    We can expect even more money printing because interest rates will already likely be at 0%

    The perfect storm.....

  5. #85
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Torbay, Auckland
    Posts
    3,938

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffa View Post
    CHRISTMAS ARRIVES EARLY IN THE U.S, 2020
    The fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points (0.5%)in an unprecedented move .

    *WHAT WE KNEW:A cut was expected at the March Fed meeting .Would it be 25 or 50 basis points was the question.

    *THE CURVEBALL: It arrived early

    They are now at the 1% lower bound for the Fed Fund rates .The actions that have been taken here are historic .This was a desperate move.

    UNDERSTAND VERY CLEARLY WHAT THIS MEANS
    When the derivatives start to unravel
    Once the upside down pyramid begins to tumble
    Once the cascade occurs
    We can expect even more money printing because interest rates will already likely be at 0%

    The perfect storm.....
    Does this affect the cost for NZ banks to borrow long term, will this mean lower rates for us at the 5 year end ??????????????
    Paul Magill B.com
    Bluekiwi Property Consulting

  6. #86
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    365

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bluekiwi View Post
    Does this affect the cost for NZ banks to borrow long term, will this mean lower rates for us at the 5 year end ??????????????
    You shouldn't be taking financial advice from a dodgy guy named Jeffa on a open forum...but from my opinion...ARE YOU SERIOUS? Inflation is about to wipe out a good chunk of your debt and you want to fix for 5 years???..Why do you think the government borrowed 12 billion for infrastructure??

  7. #87
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    365

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    Fed Chair Powell says he would want to see persistent rise in inflation before hiking rates again
    PUBLISHED WED, DEC 11 2019 2:54 PM EST
    UPDATED WED, DEC 11 2019 6:59 PM EST
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/11/fed-...tes-again.html




    The study analyzed the first 41 confirmed cases of new coronavirus admitted to Wuhan between December 16, 2019 and January 2, 2020. The results showed that of the first 41 confirmed cases,

    https://web.archive.org/web/20200130...27/680493.html

  8. #88
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    3,691

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffa View Post
    Inflation is about to wipe out a good chunk of your debt and you want to fix for 5 years???..
    Are you expecting inflation to increase soon?

  9. #89
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    365

    Default

    I'm going off line for an unspecified time...Im going to get pinched...

  10. #90
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    365

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffa View Post
    Here's a prediction, interest rates for mortgage borrowers will be advertised @2.89 %in the next 12 to 18 months....
    https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/11994...-interest-rate


 

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