2020 Predictions

[OnTheMove]

Why is this outbreak going to be worse than SARS, bird-flu, swine-flu, etc? Each has failed to get anywhere close to their predicted death toll. It's the health Services version of a bank economist.

It may not, but we had a very much US based economy during SARS.

All due respect Im not sure how up to play you are with cross species disease, but its not a case of IF but WHEN a big one comes. My mrs is a double Dr in biology/zoology, she doesnt seem overly worried yet so that makes me feel a little at ease. Its looking like they have isolated it. But there are 1000s of diseases that if were cross species transmitted would make the Black Plague look like a picnic. Luckily there are some very smart people trying to get ahead of the game with methods ahead of our time, not old school medicinal fixes.

Its always hard to crystal ball but i feel I may have taken the wrong option,,,,,

[OnTheMove]

Softening GDP, leading to less demand on resources, reduces inflation pressure, so interest rates would need to be kept lower for longer, to stimulate inflation and economic growth.

So now it depends on how big this becomes and fast it is resolved.

Yes, I think it seems at this stage by contraction to mortality to be more related to current respitatory health and those immunosuppressed. as per above, I was wanting to take 5 years at 3.99 then they cut the ocr in dec, so it lifted to 4.19%. So i thought id take the 3.39 rate, save up and pay down a big chunk in 18 months ($100k or so) and hopefully still be getting 4.19% or lower. but now thinking about elections in november and if this impacts the economy, i might have selected the wrong rate and maybe should have gone for the 5 years at 4.19% now.

Being a worry wart somewhat.

What is the likely hood we will see it jump back to pre GFC 8-10% rates in the next 18 months?

[donna]

Really good article by Steven Joyce. Did you watch the short video - it was an interesting - but more so it was followed up with our PM in the news - not for doing her job of course, but for looking good in an outfit on cover of TIME.

Serious matters aside, it's great to see our PM building up her personal profile, I predict her next move will be to the UN and in time she'll be the first female Secretary General, and until then - it's likely to be 4 more years of Trump and 3 more years of Ardern.

[Bluekiwi]

Could this be the start of something?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...ectid=12302314

Yep, between us we picked it Davo.

Its out now, Pandemic, so human cost maybe 20 Million, if you work on quarter of the world getting it, and less than 1% dyeing from it.

But the extensive ramifications will need to be discussed in the Armageddon Thread unfortunately.

[Bluekiwi]

Really good article by Steven Joyce. Did you watch the short video - it was an interesting - but more so it was followed up with our PM in the news - not for doing her job of course, but for looking good in an outfit on cover of TIME.

Serious matters aside, it's great to see our PM building up her personal profile, I predict her next move will be to the UN and in time she'll be the first female Secretary General, and until then - it's likely to be 4 more years of Trump and 3 more years of Ardern.

LOL you must be reading my mind on Trump and Ardern.

[Bluekiwi]

Yes, I think it seems at this stage by contraction to mortality to be more related to current respitatory health and those immunosuppressed. as per above, I was wanting to take 5 years at 3.99 then they cut the ocr in dec, so it lifted to 4.19%. So i thought id take the 3.39 rate, save up and pay down a big chunk in 18 months ($100k or so) and hopefully still be getting 4.19% or lower. but now thinking about elections in november and if this impacts the economy, i might have selected the wrong rate and maybe should have gone for the 5 years at 4.19% now.

Being a worry wart somewhat.

What is the likely hood we will see it jump back to pre GFC 8-10% rates in the next 18 months?

I will be in your situation in a few weeks, but I am pretty sure you made the right move, if the 18 month rate is at 3.35 still, then I will take that.
The 5 years at 4.19 is too steep.

As long as the 3 year rate is under 4.43 when you come out the other side in 18 months you are going to come out ahead.
And I think it will.

And unfortunate as Coro Virus is, its going to help your lower for longer view.

The caveat to that is if the world economy goes into major financial meltdown and no one wants to lend money and the price goes up by 5%

[Perry]

Maybe a good time to be buying up stocks of medicated face masks?

[Wayne]

Maybe a good time to be buying up stocks of medicated face masks?

Facemasks work better for people with it (to stop them spreading it) than those without it (they get it through touching stuff etc).

[PC]

Maybe a good time to be buying up stocks of medicated face masks?

Straight from the Wuhan factory!
No worries.

[Jeffa]

Here's a prediction, interest rates for mortgage borrowers will be advertised @2.89 %in the next 12 to 18 months....

[Jeffa]

Here's a prediction, interest rates for mortgage borrowers will be advertised @2.89 %in the next 12 to 18 months....

Just saying....

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12313066

[Keys]

Mmmmmmm. Nice for those who are up for renewal in the next few months or so.

[McDuck]

Here's one.

liquidity is connected to activity.

It's a global market.

Activity is also connected to connectivity.

With less Activity and less Connectivity, the act of printing money becomes inflationary.

And there's only so much inflation a finely tuned system can take.

(or should that be Takery). Ha.

[spaceman]

…...

With less Activity and less Connectivity, the act of printing money becomes inflationary......
.

This is not true.

EG...prior to any slow down the requirement for new money was 10, but new money was being created at 4.....not enough was being created....no inflation
after slow down the required amount of new money has halved to 5....money still being created at 4....still not enough is being created....no inflation.

The mere act of "printing" money isn't inflationary.....new money in excess of the expanding requirements of the economy is.

If the amount of new money was in excess before any drop in activity, the new money is already causing inflation. A drop in requirement accelerates the inflation.

New money must be created to cope with an expanding economy or the system will grind to a halt.....getting the amount of new money right is the tricky bit a little error either way will have minimal effect. Large amounts (typically "printing" way to much) are a recipe for disaster, just ask Germany, Zimbabwe, Venezuela etc

Cheers
Spaceman

[Jeffa]

Here's one.

liquidity is connected to activity.

It's a global market.

Activity is also connected to connectivity.

With less Activity and less Connectivity, the act of printing money becomes inflationary.

And there's only so much inflation a finely tuned system can take.

(or should that be Takery). Ha.

Phase 1:Coronavirus
Phase 2: Deutsche Bank about to collapse taking the liquidity out of the global market
Phase 3:....