2020 Predictions

[Keys]

Has anyone predicted the General Election outcome, so far?

National to have a coalition majority of three.

[Learning]

Has anyone predicted the General Election outcome, so far?

Labour. They haven't done enough damage yet.

[Perry]

Has anyone predicted the General Election outcome, so far?

National to have a coalition majority of three.

Labour. They haven't done enough damage yet.

You jest? Alone? Or in coalition? What more do you think they need to do to ensure losing?

If Labour get another turn . . . the new age boat people - senior citizens leaving Auckland.

[Bluekiwi]

Its a pretty exciting year, a lot could happen. And a lot of what happens will be determined by out of the blue unforeseen events.
The fires in Ausie an example.

I predict the Winston will not make 5% this time around, due to people finally realising and getting sick of him and Jones corrupt politics.
But National still losing under Bridges and greens and labour ruling.
Unless Luxon gets in, and then National will win, even with greens making 5%.
I predict Luxons power would prevail even over Jacinda's perfectly timed wedding photo's (say 5% nett gain).

I predict one OCR increase at end of year, and Interest rates longer term ones, slightly increasing from June.
I predict Auckland property market recover entrenched from November 2019, and stable through the year, with maybe up to 5% rise and settles down at that level.
Don't be fooled it already has improved around 5% to 10%.

I predict the Trump China issues to be resolved and a non issue by end of the year.

I predict Trump to get back in.

These is all my guesswork predictions.
I also think that 2020 is a big year, something big is going to happen, don't know what it is though, just a feeling.

[Davo36]

I also think that 2020 is a big year, something big is going to happen, don't know what it is though, just a feeling.

Could this be the start of something?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12302314

[donna]

Here's a source for updates. It's been around since 2003 SARS being a more severe strain.

[OnTheMove]

I predict one OCR increase at end of year, and Interest rates longer term ones, slightly increasing from June.
I predict Auckland property market recover entrenched from November 2019, and stable through the year, with maybe up to 5% rise and settles down at that level.
Don't be fooled it already has improved around 5% to 10%.

Good predictions. I agree, Auck will recover (if it hasnt already back to pre correction) and then flat line again, possibly for a long time (crystal ball just turned green lol).. Every year Auck doesnt become volatile and flat lines the lower its risk of having another, but MAJOR correction. Draw 9% from 2000 to now and thats about where we should be imo, OPINION. And every year we are not doing a Welli and doubling median with 3 years, the better IMO. Plus Auckland has a MUCH higher potential for employment and large 6-7 figure incomes. Where some of these small towns with $1m median pockets, ugggh, no thanks. But hey, the future is unknown :-)

I forsee these over heated pockets in small cities being the catalyst for the rest of the country finally feeling the ripple from Auckland and corrections occuring, but in pockets.

Here's a source for updates. It's been around since 2003 SARS being a more severe strain.

Its pretty scary to be honest the inter species viruses, they know a big one will occur, there are thousands out there waiting to cross contaminate. I will try to find this podcast on it, was either a Ted Talk or one of the Science channels. Scary but interesting. A bit like Smegel from LOTR :-)

[Perry]

Interesting to reflect / look back two years, to January 2018.

Westpac's New Zealand economics team is warning house prices will fall gradually for the next four years

Those damned econ-o-mists and their crystal-ball-gazing antics again!

[Davo36]

Interesting to reflect / look back two years, to January 2018.

Westpac's New Zealand economics team is warning house prices will fall gradually for the next four years

Those damned econ-o-mists and their crystal-ball-gazing antics again!

Wow, wrong again! Shocker!

[Perry]

Why does the bank keep employing and paying them?

Be cheaper to phone ol' Shammy, every so often.

Probably about the same degree of accuracy, too.
...............................

[Bluekiwi]

Westpac has always, at least since 2003, based their property market predictions, solely on interest rates.

Their prediction 2 years ago, based once again on interest rates going up, and then they didn't and now they change their view on house prices.

Its pretty pathetic really.

[Perry]

In his book, The Death of Economics, Professor Paul Ormerod was scathing on this matter.

He said something like: "there is no valid reason of any sort why a bank would employ an econ-o-mist."

Prof. Ormerod referred to econ-o-mists as "economic soothsayers - after the fact."

[OnTheMove]

Will this latest virus outbreak in China impact interest rates though?

China is a MAJOR source of our economy either via our exports or our Tourism.

[Bluekiwi]

Softening GDP, leading to less demand on resources, reduces inflation pressure, so interest rates would need to be kept lower for longer, to stimulate inflation and economic growth.

So now it depends on how big this becomes and fast it is resolved.

[Learning]

Will this latest virus outbreak in China impact interest rates though?

China is a MAJOR source of our economy either via our exports or our Tourism.

Why is this outbreak going to be worse than SARS, bird-flu, swine-flu, etc? Each has failed to get anywhere close to their predicted death toll. It's the health Services version of a bank economist.