Property Predictions for 2019

[Perry]

PC is looking pretty good.

But in how many NZ areas does the "house prices drop a bit" apply?

[nick000]

That's probably a sensible way to look at it. Never considered it

[Bluekiwi]

No CGT and low interest rates stopped a potential significant crash in Auckland.

So only down around 15% from Aug 2016 to now (but 20% on the shore where Chinese buyers had the most influence).

The foreign buyer ban has had massive impact and especially as foreigners can still sell (but not buy) their will be on-going repercussions.

I see the first sign of a mini pick up in auctions and open homes and amount of houses selling.

But I do not predict increasing prices, just a steadying and solidification of the structural adjustment in prices.

Probably slow and minimal annual price increases around 2% from now till Luxon gets in in 2023.

[Perry]

But it does seem that the rest of NZ has avoided catching a cold, despite Auckland (or parts thereof) sneezing.

[Bluekiwi]

Winter is coming...... for them

And their colds will lasts a lot longer and deeper.

[Perry]

Foxy Loxy?

I disagree.

The Rates Notice with RV on it is only relevant to buyers and sellers.

If the rent still comes in as it should, the ROI looks better-and-better, when set against the [declining] figures from Questionable Value (or whoever).

[exnzpat]

The Tipping Point will be Brexit, I think, but only for Europe, the US, and Australia. New Zealand will probably follow suit in about 6 months to a year.

[Perry]

Well, look who's back. Is all generally well, with you?
I recall your earlier predictions were off the mark.
Good luck with this one.

[Bob Kane]

He also claimed to be mad, in jail and dead.
He's probably right for one of those.

[exnzpat]

All of the above. However, I've lived through a number of recessions and I've noticed an odd thing about them. The media blames a seemingly unconenected incident for them. For instance, the 1987 worldwide recession was blamed on the failure of the Savings and Loan industry here in the USA, which is just weird when you think about it. What does a very small percentage of the USA banking industry have do with the greater world marketplace to begin with? Today, economists are predicting another recession, in fact everyone is talking about it, and yet it has not "officially" happened yet. The only "big thing" I see coming in the foreseeable future is brexit, a manmade disaster for sure, and a perfectly acceptable scapegoat for the new recession (though here, I think, we will blame Trump's tariff war with China).
Maybe I'll be right this time. In the past, I did not understand the socialist aspects of New Zealand and Australia, and how the respective governments meddling in each economy will sustain it. Australia, however, is in for a real test, I think. Things have now spiraled out of control there. Check out a few 60 minutes episodes on the Australian property market on YouTube, and see for yourself.

[Perry]

Well, folks. January 2020 seems like a good time to review the predictions for 2019.

Let all the erudite comments roll in on the back of S&P Agreements for 20,000 plus, affordable houses, etc.

[Perry]

Brace for Impact

Media like The Guardian (UK) say the 'great depression' is set to kick in - next year 2020.

Ready, steady . . . .

[McDuck]

I'll go for a 2020 stab in the dark.

Well... all us small fish get the wash over from the big fish...so lets think about them first.

Lots of our money comes from China.

indirectly.

I noticed that China moved into those old pirate waters, as soon as America was busy sending strike drones into the old Persian empire.
Well done, someone has been reading the Art of war by Sun Tzu.

China has the technology it wants now, and a big headache from the attitudes that come with free thought.
So you do the math.
Will Capitalism be a tool they still need,.... not so much.

Technology,

well, it's slowed down.
Many of the disruptions caused by computer are over, the "disappearance of remoteness" and all the cultural and behavioral changes that it made, are done... for now.

There's still a lot of moping up to do, I wonder what functions the banks will find to do, now that their practical function is no longer really required, for example.

Right close in, the price of houses, the number of houses, and the money to play with them...
I see that as an immigration issue.
I see the banks doing whatever they need to, to keep their now useless service running.
I see lots of dense housing projects just about to come on line.

The question is, will the amount of people coming in, outstrip the increasingly smaller boxes they are going to be shoved into.

I see immigration as a tool that employers are still using to hold wages down, so again, the banks might hit a limit with that.

So basically, more of the same.