Property Predictions for 2019

[Wayne]

Oh no!
The property market is heading for a crash.
Let's introduce a CGT so that if we sell at a loss, we can claim that loss for a tax refund.
Brilliant!

It's a capital GAINS tax - no mention of claiming losses

[Nick G]

Predictions!

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/110016412/crystal-ballgazing-on-2019s-property-market

[donna]

That was very AKL centric - except for Nick's input.

Just thinking re the ring fencing...there could be some sell down of negatively geared stock - good for FHBs. Though gone are the days of the spruikers (like Blue Chip etc) flogging off the plan apartments etc to the naive etc, so we're not likely to see a huge increase in property listings.

cheers,

Donna

[Bluecoat]

David Chaston says thanks to affordability limits being reached & a range of public policy changes, Auckland home owners ought to buckle in for a prolonged housing market funk
17 Jan 2019

The Auckland housing markets are clearly in a funk. House prices in the City of Sales are little changed at the end of 2018 from what they were in September 2016. Sales volumes are unusually low. And the commentary around the state of the market is no longer upbeat. But we have had flat periods before. So what do earlier flat periods tell us? What does history suggest?

[Wayne]

David Chaston says thanks to affordability limits being reached & a range of public policy changes, Auckland home owners ought to buckle in for a prolonged housing market funk
17 Jan 2019

Now FUNK I can handle - probably more accurate than fall or dive of any of the other verbs they like to give.
A bit off colour.

[Chris W]

Property projections from Ashley Church


"What will happen over the next 12 months, I think, is that we'll see some markets around the country - including Auckland - there'll be much more dramatic drops in prices, and that could be in the order of 15-20 per cent.



"They'll tend to be in areas where there's been either high speculation or in areas where there's been strong investor activity.



"The expectation for me would be that those will be in lower socio-economic areas around the country where there's been strong investor activity, and a lot of speculation. There'll be some variations to that, look for some big drops, against the background across the country of flat median prices."

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/property-market-2019-look-some-big-drops-in-values-increases-renters?variant=tb_v_1

Full article
Property market 2019: 'Look for some big drops' in values, increases for renters

If you're unsure of what to expect in terms of New Zealand's housing market in 2019, property expert Ashley Church is tipping more of the same for Kiwis looking to get on the property ladder.



Appearing on TVNZ1's Breakfast today, Church says that prices will remain reasonably flat across the country, although it won't be out of the question for a few outliers, namely in our biggest city - Auckland.



"Auckland's been flat for the last year or so," Church began. "There's been a bit of activity in other markets around the country."



"The expectation would be that other markets will start to decline and flatten off this year to be more like Auckland, but no crash. Prices will stay flat for the next three or four years."



Yet while the majority of the property market will stay as is, Church also predicts a sharp decline in a few areas across the country, again with sharp focus on Auckland.



"What we've had over the last 12 months is that Auckland's been flat, and when we talk about being flat, what we mean is that the average median price across the country is going to be flat - which means that it's going to move one or two per cent either way.



"What will happen over the next 12 months, I think, is that we'll see some markets around the country - including Auckland - there'll be much more dramatic drops in prices, and that could be in the order of 15-20 per cent.



"They'll tend to be in areas where there's been either high speculation or in areas where there's been strong investor activity.



"The expectation for me would be that those will be in lower socio-economic areas around the country where there's been strong investor activity, and a lot of speculation. There'll be some variations to that, look for some big drops, against the background across the country of flat median prices."



However, while it might be slightly rosier for those looking to own properties of their own, renters again will be hit hard in the pockets, Mr Church strongly predicts.



"Another year - unfortunately - of bigger than average (rent) increases."

"Last year we had around about a $30 per week increase, that was against the background of about $12 per week on average the previous 10 years.



"You'll have, I think, another year where we're up around that $25-30 per week mark unfortunately."

Lastly, Mr Church light-heartedly refused to predict what we'll see with interest rates, having missed the mark completely at the beginning of 2018.

"I came out and made a prediction last year that was wrong - which was that they were going to go up - and so did every other commentator.

"My advice on that? Throw a dice."

[Perry]

I predict lots of failed predictions.

[Bob Kane]

Most of these predictions come from the imagination of the predictor.
There are no facts or real data involved.
As such, they are worthless.
Take all the predictions over the last 10 years that interest rates will be going up.
Not one piece of data has being provided to support this prediction.
Interestingly, the predictors of this nonsense actually appear to believe what they're predicting.

[Perry]

Interestingly, the predictors of this nonsense actually appear to believe what they're predicting.

But what of the terminally gullible which also believe that stuff?

[Perry]

The strikes will continue.... more money thrown in for votes
Growth will turn negative
Property prices heading south led by AK
One of Ozzie banks will seek government assistance.
Precious metal prices will increase

Six months later and . . . . ?

[Perry]

the difference now vs 2016 is we have a trade war and housing is cooling worldwide.

A quick google search across world markets shows the housing market is slowing down - across the globe.

Another prediction for assessment, after six months or so. How close is it?

[OnTheMove]

John Key presides over huge house price increases, huge immigration numbers, then goes into banking and decides it's all a bit of a disaster...

Am I the only person who finds this a bit of a conflict of interest or a bit fishy. Resigns, sells his house at record high, then predicts a slump along with many high ranking economists......

Coincidence?

[cube]

House prices drop a bit.
Rents continue to skyrocket.
Soon becomes cheaper to buy than rent.
10-20 more kiwi build houses get finished, don't sell - given away to housing charities instead.
Twytford & Taxinda say "it's FAIR" about 500 more times & raise "not new" taxes again.

PC is looking pretty good.

[flyernzl]

Housing should ALWAYS be cheaper to buy than it is to rent.

After all that applies to rental cars, chainsaws, bicycles and concrete mixers.
Why should housing be any different?

[Davo36]

Am I the only person who finds this a bit of a conflict of interest or a bit fishy. Resigns, sells his house at record high, then predicts a slump along with many high ranking economists......

Coincidence?

Of course it was a conflict of interest.

All his investments were in a blind trust, so he couldn't see where his money was being invested. But he could certainly see the value of his house going up...

Sells half of it to a Chinese buyer. After spending years saying a) There is no housing crisis, b) Foreigners have no effect on the market and c) The Chinese aren't to blame.