Originally posted by PC
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Property Predictions for 2019
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Anyway back to predictions:
I guess I'm more of a pessimist than an optimist most times.
This year I reckon we could see some very big downturns in world stockmarkets - the downturn that is happening now could worsen substantially.
I also think we could see more of a decline in Auckland house prices. With foreign buyers mostly removed (and actually I reckon they have mostly left out of choice anyway - the easy capital gains have gone), interest rates possibly rising slightly and banks being more cautious, I think your average punter will struggle to pay the mortgage.
But having said that, the government and the reserve bank simply won't let interest rates rise too much. They can't. To do so would tip the country into a property bubble bursting and recession.
What they will do is do their damnedest to keep the party going.Squadly dinky do!
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Originally posted by Davo36 View PostBut having said that, the government and the reserve bank simply won't let interest rates rise too much. They can't. To do so would tip the country into a property bubble bursting and recession.
What they will do is do their damnedest to keep the party going.
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How much did we borrow during the GFC and who too? How much is our total mortgage debt in NZ? How much does the US owe China?
The last question probably will be the catalyst. Pretty much the same as Bluecoat predicts.
Cannabis referendum will legalise medical and recreational use via Taxed dispensaries.
But honestly outside the debt thing, it pretty much feels like groundhog year since 2016 when things were predicted to head south, so really. NoLast edited by OnTheMove; 03-01-2019, 09:06 PM.
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Although he's ultimately out to sell something (mainly, as I understand it, a subscription to his newsletter), when it comes to what the future holds, I follow and listen to Jim Rickards.
Jim is of the belief that we're headed for a global great depression that will last around 25 years.
Kind of scary to think about. But given the market fundamentals, it's not an unrealistic scenario.
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Property Prices - Flat or down 5% from Jan 19 to Dec 19. I started to separate Auckland and main centres vs other areas, but really I think this will be everywhere
Interest rates - up 0.25% to 0.5% over year
Rents ?? Huge increases in last year or so. But countered by how much can people pay? Maybe up 5%?
Kiwi build - will claim thousands but really add very little to the number of houses being built.
Tax fairness - apparently from recent article 40% of NZer's don't pay any tax once you allow for WFFTC etc. I think this will move to 45%.
Other side, top 5% will move from 25% of tax to 30% of tax.
In My opinion making NZ more unfair!
Another new big change for landlords in next 24 months - not sure what Labour will come up with, but something new and different to make life as a landlord harder.
Over 36 months - not enough new houses being built, so a u- turn on some of the changes such as ring fencing.
RossBook a free chat here
Ross Barnett - Property Accountant
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Originally posted by Rosco View PostTax fairness - apparently from recent article 40% of NZer's don't pay any tax once you allow for WFFTC etc. I think this will move to 45%.
Other side, top 5% will move from 25% of tax to 30% of tax.
In My opinion making NZ more unfair!
Most of those 40% don't realise that they are actually beneficiaries - you often hear people say 'I pay my fair share of tax'.
I think it is sad that we have to support 40% of wage eraners - a subsidy to business really.
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Originally posted by Wayne View PostI had read previously that it was 50% but 40% is fine as a figure.
Most of those 40% don't realise that they are actually beneficiaries - you often hear people say 'I pay my fair share of tax'.
I think it is sad that we have to support 40% of wage eraners - a subsidy to business really.
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Media like The Guardian (UK) say the 'great depression' is set to kick in - next year 2020. What would you predict the impact would be on house prices? If it's to last 25 years, you can be sure there'll probably be a big war in there too.
Anyone here planning on living off their assets within the next 10 or so years? Are you going to sell down a property or two or take some other action in the near future or just hang on and wait and see?
cheers,
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Originally posted by Perry View PostWhat's it going to do to employment, wages, and the ability of tenants to afford the rent?
There are lots of LL consequence options to ponder. None of them pretty.
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