Property Predictions for 2019

[Davo36]

When all the evil LL problems have been fixed and everything is "fair" - who will be the new whipping boy?
Dairy Farmers - I recon!

Have been for some time mate.

[Davo36]

Anyway back to predictions:

I guess I'm more of a pessimist than an optimist most times.

This year I reckon we could see some very big downturns in world stockmarkets - the downturn that is happening now could worsen substantially.

I also think we could see more of a decline in Auckland house prices. With foreign buyers mostly removed (and actually I reckon they have mostly left out of choice anyway - the easy capital gains have gone), interest rates possibly rising slightly and banks being more cautious, I think your average punter will struggle to pay the mortgage.

But having said that, the government and the reserve bank simply won't let interest rates rise too much. They can't. To do so would tip the country into a property bubble bursting and recession.

What they will do is do their damnedest to keep the party going.

[Perry]

But having said that, the government and the reserve bank simply won't let interest rates rise too much. They can't. To do so would tip the country into a property bubble bursting and recession.

What they will do is do their damnedest to keep the party going.

And from a bunch on socio-commies, that will be galling in the extreme.

[Bluecoat]

The strikes will continue.... more money thrown in for votes
Growth will turn negative
Property prices heading south led by AK
One of Ozzie banks will seek government assistance.
Precious metal prices will increase

[OnTheMove]

How much did we borrow during the GFC and who too? How much is our total mortgage debt in NZ? How much does the US owe China?

The last question probably will be the catalyst. Pretty much the same as Bluecoat predicts.

Cannabis referendum will legalise medical and recreational use via Taxed dispensaries.

But honestly outside the debt thing, it pretty much feels like groundhog year since 2016 when things were predicted to head south, so really. No

[LifeBroker]

the difference now vs 2016 is we have a trade war and housing is cooling worldwide.

A quick google search across world markets shows the housing market is slowing down - across the globe.

( I had to remove all the links - not allowed to post links yet? )

[M_A_M777]

Although he's ultimately out to sell something (mainly, as I understand it, a subscription to his newsletter), when it comes to what the future holds, I follow and listen to Jim Rickards.

Jim is of the belief that we're headed for a global great depression that will last around 25 years.

Kind of scary to think about. But given the market fundamentals, it's not an unrealistic scenario.

[Rosco]

Property Prices - Flat or down 5% from Jan 19 to Dec 19. I started to separate Auckland and main centres vs other areas, but really I think this will be everywhere
Interest rates - up 0.25% to 0.5% over year
Rents ?? Huge increases in last year or so. But countered by how much can people pay? Maybe up 5%?

Kiwi build - will claim thousands but really add very little to the number of houses being built.

Tax fairness - apparently from recent article 40% of NZer's don't pay any tax once you allow for WFFTC etc. I think this will move to 45%.
Other side, top 5% will move from 25% of tax to 30% of tax.
In My opinion making NZ more unfair!

Another new big change for landlords in next 24 months - not sure what Labour will come up with, but something new and different to make life as a landlord harder.
Over 36 months - not enough new houses being built, so a u- turn on some of the changes such as ring fencing.

Ross

[Wayne]

Tax fairness - apparently from recent article 40% of NZer's don't pay any tax once you allow for WFFTC etc. I think this will move to 45%.
Other side, top 5% will move from 25% of tax to 30% of tax.
In My opinion making NZ more unfair!

I had read previously that it was 50% but 40% is fine as a figure.
Most of those 40% don't realise that they are actually beneficiaries - you often hear people say 'I pay my fair share of tax'.
I think it is sad that we have to support 40% of wage eraners - a subsidy to business really.

[Perry]

I had read previously that it was 50% but 40% is fine as a figure.
Most of those 40% don't realise that they are actually beneficiaries - you often hear people say 'I pay my fair share of tax'.
I think it is sad that we have to support 40% of wage eraners - a subsidy to business really.

Whatever the actual figure is, the moribund media and Comrade Commissar Cullen & Taxcindarella's spin doctors will not want it to be a factor of any significance in any discussions.

[donna]

Media like The Guardian (UK) say the 'great depression' is set to kick in - next year 2020. What would you predict the impact would be on house prices? If it's to last 25 years, you can be sure there'll probably be a big war in there too.

Anyone here planning on living off their assets within the next 10 or so years? Are you going to sell down a property or two or take some other action in the near future or just hang on and wait and see?

cheers,

Donna

[Perry]

Let's just say this sort of catastrophe does happen.

What's it going to do to employment, wages, and the ability of tenants to afford the rent?

There are lots of LL consequence options to ponder. None of them pretty.

[Learning]

What's it going to do to employment, wages, and the ability of tenants to afford the rent?

There are lots of LL consequence options to ponder. None of them pretty.

Oh no! After years of over inflated record high rents LL's might need to choose between selling up (in a depressed market), empty properties or lowering rents. Make hay while the sun shines for the rains will come.

[Bob Kane]

Oh no!
The property market is heading for a crash.
Let's introduce a CGT so that if we sell at a loss, we can claim that loss for a tax refund.
Brilliant!

[Perry]

The rot's already started.
..............