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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    15,425

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    Quote Originally Posted by LifeBroker View Post
    the difference now vs 2016 is we have a trade war and housing is cooling worldwide.

    A quick google search across world markets shows the housing market is slowing down - across the globe.
    Another prediction for assessment, after six months or so. How close is it?
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  2. #42
    Join Date
    Apr 2018
    Posts
    258

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    Quote Originally Posted by Davo36 View Post
    John Key presides over huge house price increases, huge immigration numbers, then goes into banking and decides it's all a bit of a disaster...
    Am I the only person who finds this a bit of a conflict of interest or a bit fishy. Resigns, sells his house at record high, then predicts a slump along with many high ranking economists......

    Coincidence?

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    5,087

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    Quote Originally Posted by PC View Post
    House prices drop a bit.
    Rents continue to skyrocket.
    Soon becomes cheaper to buy than rent.
    10-20 more kiwi build houses get finished, don't sell - given away to housing charities instead.
    Twytford & Taxinda say "it's FAIR" about 500 more times & raise "not new" taxes again.
    PC is looking pretty good.
    DFTBA

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    3,088

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    Housing should ALWAYS be cheaper to buy than it is to rent.

    After all that applies to rental cars, chainsaws, bicycles and concrete mixers.
    Why should housing be any different?

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    8,451

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    Quote Originally Posted by OnTheMove View Post
    Am I the only person who finds this a bit of a conflict of interest or a bit fishy. Resigns, sells his house at record high, then predicts a slump along with many high ranking economists......

    Coincidence?
    Of course it was a conflict of interest.

    All his investments were in a blind trust, so he couldn't see where his money was being invested. But he could certainly see the value of his house going up...

    Sells half of it to a Chinese buyer. After spending years saying a) There is no housing crisis, b) Foreigners have no effect on the market and c) The Chinese aren't to blame.
    Squadly dinky do!

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    15,425

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    Quote Originally Posted by cube View Post
    PC is looking pretty good.
    But in how many NZ areas does the "house prices drop a bit" apply?
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  7. #47

    Default

    That's probably a sensible way to look at it. Never considered it

  8. #48
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Torbay, Auckland
    Posts
    3,938

    Default

    No CGT and low interest rates stopped a potential significant crash in Auckland.

    So only down around 15% from Aug 2016 to now (but 20% on the shore where Chinese buyers had the most influence).

    The foreign buyer ban has had massive impact and especially as foreigners can still sell (but not buy) their will be on-going repercussions.

    I see the first sign of a mini pick up in auctions and open homes and amount of houses selling.

    But I do not predict increasing prices, just a steadying and solidification of the structural adjustment in prices.

    Probably slow and minimal annual price increases around 2% from now till Luxon gets in in 2023.
    Paul Magill B.com
    Bluekiwi Property Consulting

  9. #49
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    15,425

    Default

    But it does seem that the rest of NZ has avoided catching a cold, despite Auckland (or parts thereof) sneezing.
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  10. #50
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Torbay, Auckland
    Posts
    3,938

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    Winter is coming...... for them

    And their colds will lasts a lot longer and deeper.
    Paul Magill B.com
    Bluekiwi Property Consulting


 

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