The Real Inflation Figure for 2018

[Don't believe the Hype]

I suppose it's possible.
Everyone is prone to that to some extent.

I'm pretty careful to take wide samples outside my own data.
Perry can be seen to be doing the same with this topic.


How do you account for all the people Perry and I know, who do watch their income vs expenditure, and see the gap shrinking?

There's 4.5million people in the country, 7b + on the planet. The small sample size you have is not statistically significant nor at a guess a representative sample.

[McDuck]

You make a good point.
Yet I see Paris is burning.

From my point of view, I have my own history of very carefully and scientifically collected data, as well as thirty corroborating data inputs from trusted real people in my real environment, as opposed to your unverified data, and some Government collected data.
The methodology and definitions unchecked as of yet.
You must know what I'm going to trust first.

[Son of G]

Stats NZ already produce 13 sub group indices to show how different groups in NZ are experiencing price rices.
The real kick in the guts is that government social support increases are often base on the much delayed general CPI but those groups are expiring much higher price increases right now.

See:

https://www.stats.govt.nz/search?Search=HLPI

[Perry]

Stats NZ already produce 13 sub group indices to show how different groups in NZ are experiencing price rices.

An excellent reference - thank you.

The HLPIs are different from the overall basket of inflation as measured by the consumers price index (CPI). The CPI measures price changes experienced for New Zealand households overall. As a national average, the CPI does not reflect price changes for different groups in society. HLPIs also include mortgage-interest payments in place of 'construction of newly built houses'.

It would be interesting to have a rent vs own sector differentiation.

The real kick in the guts is that government social support increases are often base on the much delayed general CPI but those groups are expiring much higher price increases right now.

As you observe, there is a nasty 'drag' between the price increases experienced and the indexed benefits being adjusted. The methodology seems to be somewhat different, too. E.g. the mention of mortgage interest as opposed to new house costs. I wonder what variation there is between the CPI for a given period and the Household Living Costs Price Index on a group-by-group basis?

My woeful maths skills are not good enough to do that, but it is good to see the recognition that different groups effectively experience different inflation rates. Something that's long been suspected. And even acknowledged by the W'gton woodenheads, using the recent [logical fallacy] ACC announcements as a guide.

[Perry]

Oops, maybe we haven't got as many New Zealanders as we thought
1 Feb 2019

Statistics NZ has switched to using outcomes data to measure migration, instead of the old intentions-based measure. It says this is a more accurate way of showing what's really happening. The data now comes from information from border crossings, showing how long people actually spend in or out of New Zealand rather than what they said they were going to do on their passenger cards.

OMG!

I wonder how much of the other things they 'measure' are based on intentions, rather than reality? Inflation, perhaps?

Some of the comments were pointed:

So, they based their statistics on "intentions" rather than actual "Facts", So what else does the laughingly called Statistics department take a blind guess at? The mind boggles, what on earth are we paying these people for? Tell you what, I will get a few mates around next week and after a few drinks, we will be able to give you statistics on anything you want, our method would probably be just as good by the sound of it.....statistically speaking.

Both Labour and NZ First campaigned on lowering immigration, I suppose instead of actually lowering immigration that can just come up with a new way of calculating immigration to make it appear lower, sounds about right. I don't trust statistics NZ especially with the way they handled the census.

This has nothing to do with any government (past or present) directive or any policy setting. This Statistics NZ devised measure. They have access to the data that illustrates actual migration but have actively ignored it in favour of their own methodology. Yet another example of a Stats NZ failure, an agency struggling for relevancy in the 21st century. If your interest is Immigration stats, Immigration NZ (now part of MBIE) have produced far more accurate stats on border movements for years...

[Davo36]

Unemployment is measured incorrectly too I reckon.

They say it's 4.5% or whatever. But it's way higher than that.

There are 300 to 500k NZers not counted as being unemployed because they are not looking, or employed for 1 hours a week or whatever.

[Perry]

Stats NZ already produce 13 sub group indices to show how different groups in NZ are experiencing price rices.

An excellent reference - thank you.

The HLPIs are different from the overall basket of inflation as measured by the consumers price index (CPI). The CPI measures price changes experienced for New Zealand households overall. As a national average, the CPI does not reflect price changes for different groups in society. HLPIs also include mortgage-interest payments in place of 'construction of newly built houses'.

It would be interesting to have a rent vs own sector differentiation.

The real kick in the guts is that government social support increases are often base on the much delayed general CPI but those groups are expiring much higher price increases right now.

As you observe, there is a nasty 'drag' between the price increases experienced and the indexed benefits being adjusted. The methodology seems to be somewhat different, too. E.g. the mention of mortgage interest as opposed to new house costs. I wonder what variation there is between the CPI for a given period and the Household Living Costs Price Index on a group-by-group basis?

My woeful maths skills are not good enough to do that, but it is good to see the recognition that different groups effectively experience different inflation rates. Something that's long been suspected. And even acknowledged by the W'gton woodenheads, using the recent [logical fallacy] ACC announcements as a guide.

Good to see the per societal strata figures in use.
It's getting harder to be poor, and easier to be rich
25 Oct 2019

New data from Stats NZ shows that whether you're finding it harder to get by depends a lot on who you are. It measures the cost of living through its household living cost price indexes, which compare how inflation affects 13 different groups. This is different to the consumer price index (CPI), which looks at inflation as a whole.