• Login:
Welcome, Register Here
follow PropertyTalk on facebook follow PropertyTalk on twitter Newsletter follow PropertyTalk on LinkedIn follow PropertyTalk on facebook
Page 2 of 16 FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 12 ... LastLast
Results 11 to 20 of 157
  1. #11
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    3,691

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Davo36 View Post
    You were an adult in 1987?
    Obviously I have a gap in my education.
    I'm happy to be corrected.
    Why don't you explain what happened to residential housing in 1987 and the next few years.
    Perhaps some examples of property prices might help me understand better.

  2. #12
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    3,691

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Perry View Post
    I was and I can vividly recall the mortgage interest rates, back then.
    Good.
    You would have noticed that the mortgage rates of 21% at the start of 1987 reduced to about 12% a few years later.
    What did that do to house prices?
    In your opinion, was there a crash in residential house prices over that time?

  3. #13
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    312

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Davo36 View Post

    The trend is up, but couple of dips there mate.

    Here is the chart for both nominal and inflation adjusted prices (also referred to as "real"). From RBNZ house price study dated January 2016



  4. #14
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    3,691

    Default

    The red line seems to be going only one way to me.
    And that is with a log scale.
    Is the only dip around 2006?

  5. #15
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    3,691

    Default

    Thanks for posting that graph, Chris.
    So far we are having trouble locating someone who has seen a property bubble in NZ.
    Hopefully they will appear soon and enlighten us with their wisdom.

  6. #16
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    312

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Kane View Post
    The red line seems to be going only one way to me.
    And that is with a log scale.
    Is the only dip around 2006?
    Bob,

    The dip is around 2009 I think.

    Are there any conclusions that you would make with respect to future prices?

  7. #17
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    312

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Kane View Post
    So far we are having trouble locating someone who has seen a property bubble in NZ.
    Hopefully they will appear soon and enlighten us with their wisdom.
    Here is a comment that I found from another thread. The comment was made by flyernzl


    Well I have little knowledge of what went on in Spain and 'some American cities' . . .
    . . . but I do have some depth of insight into what happened in Ireland.

    The Irish collapse was triggered by developers building far too many houses, and doing so almost entirely with borrowed money.
    When these houses did not sell the developers then went broke, obviously could not repay their loans, and thus took the lenders down with them.
    (Established homeowners and established landlords were largely unaffected).

    I suspect that if we do have some sort of property collapse in NZ in the near future, it will not be caused by an oversupply of housing.
    Last edited by Chris W; 20-03-2018 at 11:07 PM.

  8. #18
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    3,691

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris W View Post
    Are there any conclusions that you would make with respect to future prices?
    It's really hard to get a property crash.
    You have to take a number of different things which are all out of your control and magically align them together.
    Being able to predict this happening several years ahead is virtually impossible.
    The only measure you can safely use is house prices move by about the inflation rate + 2%.
    If inflation is around the 2% mark then house price increases will be about 4%.

  9. #19

    Default

    At the time of the crash. I do remember the ""Contributory Mortgage "" companies that setup and many went bust. They were offering far higher rates of return than the banks were on their term deposits.

    Their prospectus told prospective investors, your money with them was covered by insurance against loss . However they didn't mention the fact that they also owned the insurance company...

  10. #20
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    15,431

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Kane View Post
    Good.
    You would have noticed that the mortgage rates of 21% at the start of 1987 reduced to about 12% a few years later.
    What did that do to house prices?
    In your opinion, was there a crash in residential house prices over that time?
    I wasn't a PI back then, and blissfully unaware (ignorant) of such things.

    I remember that selling my PPOR in Papatoetoe around 1997 was a challenge, though.
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!


 

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Four reasons not to panic about a property bubble in NZ
    By Rosco in forum Property Investment (NZ)
    Replies: 49
    Last Post: 26-06-2014, 09:49 PM
  2. Where’s the next property bubble building?
    By muppet in forum General (NZ)
    Replies: 12
    Last Post: 01-11-2013, 03:32 PM
  3. Ireland's Property Bubble
    By Shamrock in forum Property Investment (NZ)
    Replies: 11
    Last Post: 19-06-2013, 10:24 PM
  4. China In a Property Bubble?
    By Davo36 in forum World in General
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 05-01-2010, 09:58 AM
  5. House price jump stokes bubble fears
    By muppet in forum Property Investment (Oz)
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 04-08-2009, 10:10 PM
  6. New Zealand Property Market Bubble
    By dhalsun in forum Property Investment (NZ)
    Replies: 135
    Last Post: 18-05-2007, 02:29 PM
  7. Property bubble must burst
    By muppet in forum Property Investment (NZ)
    Replies: 73
    Last Post: 03-03-2007, 01:03 PM
  8. What if the property bubble does pop?
    By muppet in forum Property Investment (Oz)
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 04-08-2005, 01:23 AM
  9. The New York Property Bubble
    By murray-spi-investments in forum General (NZ)
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 07-02-2005, 12:43 PM
  10. HB property bubble tipped to burst
    By muppet in forum Property Investment (NZ)
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 21-05-2004, 05:12 PM

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •