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  1. #151
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    15,429

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris W View Post
    . . . an economist has warned.
    Nuff said. A prediction soothsayer looking for media coverage for his business.
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  2. #152
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Posts
    7,658

    Default

    that seems a pretty worse case scenario....

    but those need to be accounted for too
    have you defeated them?
    your demons

  3. #153
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    3,088

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    What is generally forgotten (but is actually mentioned in the above scenario) is that as the recession bites new home building ceases.
    Therefore, with a rising population, a housing shortage develops. Over time this pushes prices back up so eventually builders can once again build with the expectation of making a profit.
    So there is a self-correcting mechanisim at play.

  4. #154
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    312

    Default

    If you're interested, here is a firsthand experience of the Irish property bubble

    https://youtu.be/1hi7gV9uyK8?t=37

  5. #155
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    8,451

    Default

    I just watched that actually. Was quite good.
    Squadly dinky do!

  6. #156
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    312

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JBM View Post
    I don't think its just a local issue >>> but

    Qutown/Wanaka has a history of BOOM BUST.. seeing asking prices of over $1k per sqm for a tiny slab of land > 20min+ drive from CBD small tourist focused townships (#1-risk if tourism drops off etc) stupidly high rent just so investors can break even >>

    I see major pressure points coming to a head >> esp if rates head higher

    Incomes for the mass of residential population locally is either tourism based or property based- tradies RE agents etc .. now these same workers are biggest buyers / owners of recently purchased property at very high levels generally ... I've heard debt 500k-800k+ is quite common for 30-50yr couples etc here

    I'd say the average worker and esp. families are really struggling with finances.. I really don't know how many keep their heads above water

    I've got a family of four debt-free home in the central Otago area and better than average income ...and we don't have much free cash floating around after basic weekly expenses..

    Now while property is booming and tradies can charge an arm and leg for any work.. thats not going to last forever..

    Just like historically LOW rates 4-5% fine only $400-$600pw just to cover interest on loans for many.. will these last forever??

    I see many 4-5 story apartment blocks going up at every corner of the township .. one could see an overdevelopment of small units/apartments ..

    I think its all like a game of Jenga .. every Qtr stack another block to the tower .. how high will it go before it falls over and investors pull out of spec apartments in turn bankrupting developers in turn leaving tradies out of pocket in turn forcing sales of homes add in GFC 2 and it starts looking very BEARISH on an investment case for capital growth then you have buyings sitting on their hands prices fall banks call in loans or don't refinace >>

    JBM,

    What are you seeing in Queenstown now?

  7. #157
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Posts
    825

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris W View Post
    JBM,

    What are you seeing in Queenstown now?
    Not much yet ...as lockdown will affect R.E etc few months after lockdown ends will tell the story which IMHO will be bleak


 

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