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  1. #1
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    Default Why Gold and Silver are the next best Investment.

    Hi Guys

    Another fascinating article about gold and silver and why their prices will spiral to giddy heights never seen before, over the next few years.

    http://www.financialsense.com/Market...2003/1215.html

    Regards

  2. #2
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    Default

    on another forum, there was a rumour that some nations are now dumping US$ in exchange for gold reserves.

    Could this be the start of something bigger?

    This is an unconfirmed rumour - but could have huge consequences to the entire jewellery and investment trades if there becomes mass hysteria surrounding such moves.

  3. #3
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    Hi Inzvestor

    Interesting article for you to read.

    Systematically Accumulate Gold

    By Richard Russell
    For The Gold Report
    January 21, 2004


    www.theaureport.com



    Nickolai Kondratieff (1892-193 was a Russian economist, one of the leading economists during the 1920’s. Kondratieff's major premise was that capitalist economies run through a long cycle of expansion and then contraction, with a cycle that is approximately 53 years in length.
    Kondratieff identified four distinct phases the economy goes through. They are a period of inflationary growth, followed by stagflation, then deflationary growth and finally depression. They have also been identified by seasons: Spring (inflationary growth, expansion), summer (stagflation, recession), autumn (deflationary growth, plateau) and winter (depression).
    So, are we about to encounter the “Kondratieff Winter?” See what Richard Russell has to say:

    Question -- I keep hearing about the so-called “Kondratieff” Winter that's supposed to be coming in. What's that all about?

    Answer -- Nikolai Kondratieff (1892 to 193 was a Russian economist who developed a theory about repetitive cycles of inflation and deflation. . Kondratieff saw four seasons in the world economy much as there are four seasons in nature.

    To make a very long story short, Kondratieff followers believe we are now in the “Autumn” season, in which debt is still building, with “winter” dead ahead. The Kondratieff Winter will see the massive debt of the U.S. and the rest of the world literally wiped out during a severe depression. One of the experts on Kondratieff is Ian Gordon of Canada (“The Long Wave Analyst”), and I believe . . . Bob Prechter (“Elliott Wave”) also subscribes pretty much to the broad Kondratieff concept.

    Question -- If the so-called “Kondratieff Winter” does materialize, where should an investor be?

    Answer -- My answer would be gold and cash. As far as the cash is concerned, that's a problem because today you have to decide which cash (currency) to be in. Right now I'd say you should be mostly in euros, but since I know most subscribers won't do this, I'd say that you should at least “get your feet wet” with a portion of euros.

    Question -- Is there a periodicity or cycle connected with Kondratieff?

    Answer -- The lows of the cycle or the “winters” have occurred in 1789, 1844, 1896, and 1949. Those are separated by about 52-54 years each. Adding 54 years to 1949 brings us to 2003.

    This is very interesting because we are in a primary bear market that began in 1999-2000, and on this basis we should be scraping off the bottom of the Kondratieff “Winter.” However, the Fed has decided to fight the primary bear forces “tooth and nail” as I predicted it would when the primary bear market first began.

    Ironically, the Fed's action has resulted in a further massive build-up of debt -- in fact the greatest build-up of debt in US history. . . it now takes eight units of debt (credit) to produce just one unit of GDP. The estimate is that the US as a whole is now carrying $34 trillion of debt with liabilities of $44 trillion coming up over the next decade.

    This incredible mountain of debt, in my opinion, will give way to a crushing wipe-out of debt as the bear market finally takes hold. This will occur despite any and all of the efforts and machinations of the Fed. . .

    Every nation is now indulging in competitive devaluations. This is generating a huge global increase in paper currency creation. To protect ourselves against this inflation, we must be in tangibles. This means gold, silver, diamonds, works of art, real estate, commodities. We should also be in some non-dollar currencies.

    At some point the global inflationary/debt edifice is going to topple over -- and crash. This will produce world deflation. At that time we will have to be in gold and some cash. That's the future as I see it. Everything else is of secondary consideration or “beside the point.”

    As an aside, I sense that gold is being quietly and systematically accumulated by sophisticated and knowledgeable investors around the world. This accumulation is keeping gold above the 400 level and in the 400-430 band. That's the way gold is trading.

    At some point ahead, all the 400 to 430 gold will be taken off the market. Then we will see gold move up to the 430 to 450 band. I don't know when this will happen, but if I had to guess I'd guess it will happen this year.

    In the meantime, we will see periodic sell-offs in gold and gold shares as late-comers and amateur speculators attempt to “beat the market” and scalp a few points off gold or gold stocks. This is not, in my opinion, the way to deal with gold at this time. Gold should not be traded, it should be accumulated up to a set proportion of your assets and held.

    (January 8, 2004)

    Regards

  4. #4
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    Jan 2004
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by inzvestor
    on another forum, there was a rumour that some nations are now dumping US$ in exchange for gold reserves.
    which forum? I'm interested

    Jas

  5. #5
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    Default

    Thanks Muppet

    Interesting points of view from all contributors to this debate.

    Jas - it was a UK site www.singingpig.co.uk, which I am regular poster to.

    Similar to PT but for UK residents.

  6. #6
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    Default

    Hi Guys

    Another interesting site regarding gold and silver.

    http://trinity.mips1.net/mggold.nsf/Current?OpenView

    Regards

  7. #7
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    Default

    Hi Guys

    Silver roared through US$7 an ounce today.

    That is up from US$5.65 before Christmas.

    Oh hell why didn't I buy some then.

    Regards

  8. #8
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    Default

    If you keep "sitting on your hands" you may be asking your self the same question in another six months! :P

    Regards.

  9. #9
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    Default

    Hi Marcus

    At least sitting on my hands helps keep them warm.

    Seriously, try this fascinating site:

    http://www.bibleprophesy.org/goldismoney/SS26.html

    Regards

  10. #10
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    Default

    Heard talk on the radio the other day that gold could go down to around $68 an ounce, mimicing the 19th century crash in silver prices when the Silver Standard became the Gold Standard.

    Seems there is growing realisation that currencies are backed by industry, not by gold reserves, so why bother having any?

    cube
    DFTBA


 

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