Prediction Again - Gloom & Doom

[Perry]

Kiwi analysts say global economy strong, amid warning of financial crash
11 Jan 2017

Here we are, folks, three years on and . . .

[OnTheMove]

Well Auckland lost 10% and ever since has been having a heart murmours with prices rising during the year by 8% due to Q3 sales and then falling in Q1, Q2, Q4.

Supposedly 4 years on from Aucks slight correction and continuous plateu some are saying Auck might bust its q3 resistance line and the rest of NZ, being HEAVILY over inflated imo to not only median income but populations and actual amount of jobs that can justidy $1.4m median in Kelburn or $900k median in Mt Grand Dunedin, yeah renters in Dunedin are the sort to be able to afford to pay those kinds of mortgages from borrowers ;-p. So Im with the rest of NZ following Aucklands last 4 years, like a ripple in the water. But I wouldnt surprised if some of these suburbs dropped more like 30%. Spot corrections

I dont see NZ having a massive national correction. Its obvious some areas do not justify their pricing, so it shouldnt be a shock if they do correct as Auckland investors find resistance lines in the local capita. (and other cashed up investors)

Time to learn a new investment method, oh know shares, oh how scary. Ive made 9.5% PA for last 10 years and I havnt made a single selection outside which ASX based managed fund I use.

[Wayne]

Save the money building that road, but in 2 quick cats a day to from gulf harbour and save that road money for replacing the F.... stupid Bus system with a train line. One day when fossil fuels are out they will go, oh i know, electric buses (give me strength)

Where is the train going to go? (How is getting over the harbour?)

[OnTheMove]

Where is the train going to go? (How is getting over the harbour?)

Flip it Wayne, if Aucklanders who have not lived overseas and experienced proper suburb to suburb train line commuting, do not get the chance, then where are you going to put the extra 2 lanes for traffic within 10 years?
here is your heads up.

[Wayne]

Flip it Wayne, if Aucklanders who have not lived overseas and experienced proper suburb to suburb train line commuting, do not get the chance, then where are you going to put the extra 2 lanes for traffic within 10 years?
here is your heads up.

That didn't answer anything.
You suggested to replace the bus with the train as if it could be done overnight - how does it get across the harbour?
I'm not suggesting that it isn't a good idea but rather probing how much you have thought this through.

[OnTheMove]

That didn't answer anything.
Im not suggesting that it isn't a good idea but rather probing how much you have thought this through.

Enough. Comparing it to Sydney tolls. The idea is to both fund the line/tunnel but also to dicourage people from driving in the CBD, no large city encourages this outside emergences/tolls. Of course sydney and bris thought WELL ahead and have lines going to within walking distance of any suburb you live in.

All Im proposing is a northern line replacing the bus system. It was mapped out on Light Rail then scrapped. It has to occur or like I was asking in reflection, where do you place the extra lanes for even further car congestion? That is the real issue.

Aucklands cost to Transport due to congestion is ASTRONOMICAL
Aucklands CO2 due to lack of thought out transport is astronomical

All of this is solveable just how we use to pay 50c crossing the harbour bridge, yet these days its easy to use technology. A complete circle around the inner city for people using vehicles not public transport to enter the zone. Of course there are always exceptions (city plumbing workers etc, people who need vehicles to service the cities nees). Or could these vehicles be left in the city and the workrs use improved transport home?

The ultimate answer to your question and how far ahead have I thought is $100s of billions, which is not popular but is far more pressing than any other issue Auck is facing.

[ermat]

Well Auckland lost 10% and ever since has been having a heart murmours with prices rising during the year by 8% due to Q3 sales and then falling in Q1, Q2, Q4.

Supposedly 4 years on from Aucks slight correction and continuous plateu some are saying Auck might bust its q3 resistance line and the rest of NZ, being HEAVILY over inflated imo to not only median income but populations and actual amount of jobs that can justidy $1.4m median in Kelburn or $900k median in Mt Grand Dunedin, yeah renters in Dunedin are the sort to be able to afford to pay those kinds of mortgages from borrowers ;-p. So Im with the rest of NZ following Aucklands last 4 years, like a ripple in the water. But I wouldnt surprised if some of these suburbs dropped more like 30%. Spot corrections

I dont see NZ having a massive national correction. Its obvious some areas do not justify their pricing, so it shouldnt be a shock if they do correct as Auckland investors find resistance lines in the local capita. (and other cashed up investors)

Time to learn a new investment method, oh know shares, oh how scary. Ive made 9.5% PA for last 10 years and I havnt made a single selection outside which ASX based managed fund I use.

I think you are correct regards a location based corrections. Will be interesting to see how the next 12 months unfolds.

[OnTheMove]

Any thoughts on this Wuhan Virus having a big impact on our interest rates?

Im annoyed, I wish I had locked down 5 years now.

NZs exports and more so Tourism, not to mention Debt much more reliant on China than the GFC days. GFC 2.0 in the making? :-)

[JBM]

Any thoughts on this Wuhan Virus having a big impact on our interest rates?

Im annoyed, I wish I had locked down 5 years now.

NZs exports and more so Tourism, not to mention Debt much more reliant on China than the GFC days. GFC 2.0 in the making? :-)

Will go lower if anything as economic growth numbers will free-fall if this virus continues to spread and cause slowdown is business ... GOVT+Central Banks these days can't handle recessions anymore(well that what we are told) so will pump even more money to keep all the bubbles afloat and rates will fall even further ... the FED has
stated rates will likely stay very low for even longer than expected.. artificially sustained economy is the new normal..

[OnTheMove]

Will go lower if anything as economic growth numbers will free-fall if this virus continues to spread and cause slowdown is business ... GOVT+Central Banks these days can't handle recessions anymore(well that what we are told) so will pump even more money to keep all the bubbles afloat and rates will fall even further ... the FED has
stated rates will likely stay very low for even longer than expected.. artificially sustained economy is the new normal..

Thanks JBM, that gives me some actual reasons to hold hope in 19 months i wont be facing 8% special rates hehe.

Yes bless Sir John Key for dropping those rates, inflating the markets, selling his property up the Rd from me and taking off to his pacific property. I think that house doubled in price. There was an article or a write up about it somewhere.

Anyway, im hoping you are right, inflated property markets keep sustain artifical economies.

And yes, isnt that why Ardern wanted to up the rates a little bit to add another $25B or so to the bail out packages? This is prob my real concern, how much does she want the rates raised by? I should have gone floatng and waited for the May OCR drop then gone 5 years... agggh crystal ball + anxiety = stress haha

[OnTheMove]

Sept 2020, where did I get Novemeber from...

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/103390/prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-announces-2020-general-election-will-be-held-september-19

[Wayne]

Thanks JBM, that gives me some actual reasons to hold hope in 19 months i wont be facing 8% special rates hehe.

Do you have all your borrowings at one term and one rate?
Best way is to spread the renewal dates so if it does go up all is not affected at the same time.

[Perry]

Kiwi analysts say global economy strong, amid warning of financial crash
11 Jan 2017

Willem Buiter, the Citigroup bank's chief economist and a leading theorist on monetary policy, said investors should cut their exposure to asset markets like the sharemarket before central banks shut off emergency stimulus.

But New Zealand commentators are far from advising people to bail out, saying share prices were being justified by strong global growth.

Kiwi analysts say global economy strong, amid warning of financial crash
11 Jan 2017

I wonder who will be proved right?

No one. As usual.