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  1. #1

    Default How to time your reentry buy at the bottom of the low low? (crash)

    Ok I have no doubt Auckland is crashing, after protecting itself from the GFC with absurd borrowings, then the average non investor thinking they like myself have a master in commerce or even that because they bought a property and it went up in value by ridiculous amounts it was all planning boosting their JAFA mentality to LIMITLESS proportions. Those on the wise clearly used the gains in trusts to buy neutrally geared property, knowing with a crash comes 2x-4x current interest rates.

    Anyway, I personally calculated imo as of March 2017 Avg house prices were 40% over inflated (based on historical capital gains and not recent decade).

    I dont expect all properties will drop 40%, some 10%, some 70%. But I do think its started.

    Now Im not a big time investor. Ive only ever ran a few properties at a time while living in NZ and Aus, and Ive always timed both my exit and reentry very well. But a lot of that is probably luck. However one key indicator to me is house sales, pretty obvious to any investor and average house prices vs predicted bottom end house values.

    Id like any other tips you pros have for reentry into the market for flippers like me, I buy, reno, sell. I have low risk adversion and I dont rely on the market going up to make my money, in saying that its a lot easier in an up, but Im very comfortable with a flat market. So any tips aside from my 30+ years experience doing this would be much appreciate, I know you lot probably have a lot more experience outside the ludicrous Auckland bubble and have got more key indicators for a down turn plateauing.

    Cheers all

  2. #2

    Default

    I think you need to define "crash". Nothing happening where I live, business as usual. You say you are comfortable in a flat market but would you be comfortable in a crashing market where nothing is selling? Yes trading can work in any market but you need to be smart where we are now.

    \

    FH
    Last edited by Frezzinghot; 08-08-2017 at 08:29 PM.
    "Remember, people will judge you by your actions,not your intentions.You may have a heart of gold -but so does a hard-boiled egg".

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Posts
    613

    Default

    From what I seen during the GFC 2008-09 in the equity markets was when the FEAR was at its worse was the best time to buy and wait till everyone is talking up the Biggest in history Mega boom (MAX GREED) ...time to sell ....of course this can be 10yrs+ apart ....

    As long as we have fractional banking within a capitalist system .... we will continue to go from BOOM to BUST

    I think this next one will make the likes of 87 - 08 seem like just a warm up...

  4. #4

    Default

    Ok I have no doubt Auckland is crashing
    That would be news to everybody investing in Auckland. A flat period is nothing like a crash. Have you been through a crash? The biggest one we have had in Auckland in decades took 11% off Auckland prices on very subdued sales volumes. So your concerns are in the realm of unreality IMHO.

  5. #5

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JBM View Post
    From what I seen during the GFC 2008-09 in the equity markets was when the FEAR was at its worse was the best time to buy and wait till everyone is talking up the Biggest in history Mega boom (MAX GREED) ...time to sell ....of course this can be 10yrs+ apart ....

    As long as we have fractional banking within a capitalist system .... we will continue to go from BOOM to BUST

    I think this next one will make the likes of 87 - 08 seem like just a warm up...
    Rofl cant argue there, imagine what 08 would have been like without borrowing money due to our dependant allies borrowing bubble. then we borrowed on top of that like little lambies. Its odd how our down turns in property are always around the 7s.

    We have such a strong economy with 19 century arachaic ag and 100% BS Advertising Tourism.

    Our economy is driven by idiots using their paper capital gains spending up large in retail, whats sad there is they arent (largely buying NZ made) so our mass printed dollar is being sent off shore which of course in large means more and more of NZ is owned offshore. At best I hope the fall out is we become a state of Australia. At worst we ask Greece for help.

    Will we ever have a government who will focus on 1.Health 2. Education (remember those lucky retirees who got free uni, they want us to retire at 67, cheeky buggers) 3. Small business. Like in Australia where Small Business gets funding, support and a mentor in the same industry. Health, heck medicare like US and Aus, we just throw it into the budget and if anything is left we might give some to Health or Education.

    How did I get so bitter, oh John Key not delivering and retiring and leaving the guy who created the problem im charge.

    I never thought someone other than Labour or National was an option, but Im afraid its not the only option.

    How did I get onto this.....

    Timing the market, Im not so adverse to risk in a mildly falling market, but looking at our graph going vertical, Im not so keen if the apple drops at the same rate. I do expect the apple to bounce at the bottom as usual.

    Then hopefully we asset and income test retirees (why should a quadriplegic with a partner just over the meagre threshold not get a benefit yet a multi millionaire get $350 a week?). And raise the age to 67 immediately, no arguments.

    immigration and so called rubbish housing crisis over, Property bubble popped, NZ back to normal and stop pretending to be something its clearly not (mildly out of 3rd world in places)

    So Im thinking, house sale volumes, foreclosures, interest rates growing close to 10%, prices dropping below 25% and not bouncing back, if it hits 40% I feel buy and expect a bounce. Thats just my gut feeling not a financial advisor obviously and plenty of people will this this is absurd how could our market go up so much then drop so much. This is NZ after all, not Ireland or America or Australia, we make milk and lamb here in NZ. Impossible....

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Posts
    613

    Default

    Yes ...now I don't think little new Zeal-land will crash anything like some countries have international in recent modern times >>> but I think the bulk of narrow investment minded kiwis can't even comprehend a sizable correction ever happening in NZ Property
    ...does worry me ...Can only go one way!!! , u can make anymore land!!!! ..

    People like to put timeframes aka 10-30yrs as the backing to show values of NZ assets and employment can only go to minor correction to flatline at worst ..I certainly hope this is true >> but as a trader(and investor) one must look at all angles and not just what makes me feel good..

    Lehman Brothers was around for some 158yrs ...at its peak commanded a 60 billion market value (NZ GDP 180 Billion)

    filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Not only was it the largest bankruptcy case in United States history, but it also came after repeated assurances from the company’s chief executives that finances were healthy, liquidity levels were high, and leverage was manageable.......

    My biggest Macro worry is around China / Japan


    Simple fact is us Kiwis are MAD for property (and ruggers,beer,and blackouts from too much beer) ....we sort of have a ingrained excess nature to our culture ..much like our neighbours across the ditch... would actually be healthy if we did see a correction

  7. #7
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    2,911

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Mission2 View Post
    t. So any tips aside from my 30+ years experience doing this would be much appreciate, I know you lot probably have a lot more experience outside the ludicrous Auckland bubble and have got more key indicators for a down turn plateauing.

    Cheers all
    You've been flipping for 30+ years and you're asking for advice?
    Don't flip if you think the market is going down.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Posts
    432

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Mission2 View Post
    Then hopefully we asset and income test retirees (why should a quadriplegic with a partner just over the meagre threshold not get a benefit yet a multi millionaire get $350 a week?). And raise the age to 67 immediately, no arguments.
    Agree with the 67 increase but a universal benefit system (such as superann) is IMO the fairest system. That's right Fair. Why should I work, run a business and pay taxes only to not get any benefit for it when I'm 65/67? I am much better to not work, piss away all my money, or gamble it away at the casino and let those who have worked and paid taxes for the past 40 years pay for my retirement too, while they get jack for all their effort, that's fair.

    Means testing= more gov't interference which means more costs, more bureaucracy and more ways for those with assets to protect and hide them to become eligible. Means testing has a whole raft of unforeseen consequences. I don't begrudge a millionaire paying taxes that we all benefit from, employing people, working hard their whole career also being eligible for superan, they may not need it but they sure as hell earned a slice of the pie- after all they helped bake the damn thing through the taxes they paid while working. Instead we encourage and reward beneficiaries who sat on their arses for 30+ years living in a state house and THEN also gets a tax payer paid pension cos they are poor whilst those who worked and saved for a nest egg aren't entitled to anything as a result. That's a fairer/better system? Really?

    Craig

  9. #9

    Default

    No person who has been in the game long term and treats it as a job talks like the OP.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Kane View Post
    You've been flipping for 30+ years and you're asking for advice?
    Don't flip if you think the market is going down.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    7,335

    Default

    I thought it was either a troll, or a very confused person...


 

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