Price and immigration, is the model a bit off?

[Perry]

I do wonder if it's sort-of ego-food so that people can later crow about how clever and right they were. Seems akin to the old saw: why don't you take my advice - I'm not using it.

Speak your truth quietly and clearly; avoid loud and aggressive persons.

I'd prefer it if people avoided predictions. Especially here, but elsewhere would be good, too.

I hope that no new-to-the-forums person would proceed with investment decisions based on any of the failed predictions of such people.

[Jeffa]

I do wonder if it's sort-of ego-food so that people can later crow about how clever and right they were. Seems akin to the old saw: why don't you take my advice - I'm not using it.

Speak your truth quietly and clearly; avoid loud and aggressive persons.

I'd prefer it if people avoided predictions. Especially here, but elsewhere would be good, too.

I hope that no new-to-the-forums person would proceed with investment decisions based on any of the failed predictions of such people.

Don't listen to Perry new members

He's a Red in sheeps clothing.

Listen to me,

King Jeffa.

[Chris W]

Interesting to note.

In 2021, population in NZ falls by 3,915, yet average house prices in NZ increased by about 27.5%.

1) https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...ving-long-term
2) https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...028097-january

[McDuck]

Interesting to note.

In 2021, population in NZ falls by 3,915, yet average house prices in NZ increased by about 27.5%.

Ha!,
hi Chris.
You made a bit of a rookie mistake.

Have you considered lag time.

So, by that I mean, you could have pent up demand - that activates at a later date.

Also, you might have an oversimplified mental model for naming groups of things.

So for example, the group "Byers" might have some sort of control gate to the set (or group).

So you might have a bunch of potential buyers, who can not buy, but once that control gate is opened, they can move into the buyers category, and the numbers seem to swell.

So more of a change of status , rather than a change in overall population.

I like it when people are genuinely interested in the mechanics of running a viable society, so ask me what ever you want and I'll help if I can.

[Chris W]

Have you considered lag time.

McDuck,

Thank you for your help.

Just to clarify, can you tell me which is the leading indicator and which is the lagging indicator?

[McDuck]

McDuck,

Thank you for your help.

Just to clarify, can you tell me which is the leading indicator and which is the lagging indicator?

Hi Chris.

New Zealand has had record immigration for the past decade.

So when you have at least 10 years of pent up demand, it's going to take 10 years of similar sized population losses to remove the effect.

All things being equal, you could simply consider the 10 year population shift - instead of an annual one.

But, in reality, it's the increase in the amount of NZ dollars in circulation, that has made house prices appear to increase 25%.

It's only an illusion, just like you could think you were getting fatter if someone shrunk your cloths in the dryer.

Hope this helps.