Price and immigration, is the model a bit off?

[Perry]

The other big headwind for the economy was likely to be a slowdown in migration in 2019 and 2020.

Infometrics forecasts the annual net migration gain will fall

from 68,900 (for the year to March) to below 17,000 by early 2021.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=12031276

How on earth would you forecast this? Like how can anyone look a few years out and decide immigration will be up or down?

They can't. They're uneducated guesses pontificated by the over-qualified. Attention seekers, all.

[Perry]

The other big headwind for the economy was likely to be a slowdown in migration in 2019 and 2020.
Infometrics forecasts the annual net migration gain will fall
from 68,900 (for the year to March) to below 17,000 by early 2021.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=12031276

How on earth would you forecast this? Like how can anyone look a few years out and decide immigration will be up or down?

Depends on where you purchase your crystal ball.

[Chris W]

Interesting to note:

1) immigration down significantly in 2020 compared to 2019 - https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...pared-year-ago

2) house prices, meanwhile have been rising - That means the national median price rose 18.5% year-on-year. - https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...000-last-month

[McDuck]

Interesting to note:

1) immigration down significantly in 2020 compared to 2019 - https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...pared-year-ago

2) house prices, meanwhile have been rising - That means the national median price rose 18.5% year-on-year. - https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...000-last-month

Yes, well spotted.

So, you need to compensate for lag.

Often a cause and effect don't occur at the same time.

When there's a backlog of demand, the price won't drop until it's met.

[Perry]

Another interesting thread of opinions and guesstimates to look back on.

[Jeffa]

Another interesting thread of opinions and guesstimates to look back on.

God your repetitive Perry

Say something anything original

Please!

[Perry]

Better to avoid empty guesses and risk being perceived as repetitive than to make so many wrong predictions and remove all possible doubt.

[chook]

Better to avoid empty guesses and risk being perceived as repetitive than to make so many wrong predictions and remove all possible doubt.

But your the one asking for all the predictions?

[Jeffa]

Better to avoid empty guesses and risk being perceived as repetitive than to make so many wrong predictions and remove all possible doubt.

You need to have doubt in any investment decisions, if you can't critique your own decisions your living in an non existent realty.

Fyi I have a 94% success rate in all my economic predictions, perhaps you should highlight that instead of the other 6%.

[Jeffa]

But your the one asking for all the predictions?

And he wonders why very few forum members reply to his request.

[Perry]

But your the one asking for all the predictions?

Can't see how you arrive at that position.
I'm bringing them up to show that most of them - the biggest majority - are wrong.
It's all about credibility and how that has an impact on the standing of the poster making predictions.
Empty vessel makes loudest noise.

One of many examples . . .

No need to quarrel my fellow capitalist!
Jeffas predictions are always accurate! ALWAYS!!
DISCLAIMER:King Jeffa has a margin of error within 3 to 5%. Time frames can very 3 to 6 months.

Didn't you predict negative OCR by years end?

Yes and I was WRONG..WRONG with a capital W!
Did I say I was wrong? Oh yes I said it I was WRONG.

Don't worry Wayne I'm wiping away my crocodile tears with all the money I made this year..

[Jeffa]

Can't see how you arrive at that position.
I'm bringing them up to show that most of them - the biggest majority - are wrong.
It's all about credibility and how that has an impact on the standing of the poster making predictions.
Empty vessel makes loudest noise.

One of many examples . . .

Good god Perry for me to go back through hundreds if not thousands of post show's how little of a life you have.

Negative interest rates are coming I still stand by that prediction.

Just not in this economic cycle.

Today's increase as was in 2014 a prelude of what is to come.

And you need to work on your mathematics

1 of my predictions doesn't represent a majority dumb as.

[Jeffa]

And Perry if you think I'm going to stop predictions think again.

[Perry]

1 of my predictions doesn't represent a majority dumb as.

No, it shows you lack credibility in such things. No more, no less. It was only one example. There were others which you admitted to and I did not have the will or time to find them all. You seem oblivious to the law of holes. (Evidenced by your follow-up post.)

Please go back to your Conspiracy Theories sandpit and play there.

But on the price and immigration model, it does seem almost certain that 'forecasts' and 'modelling' are predictions by another name and just as bad as predictions when it comes to proven accuracy.

Recall the spectre of the tens of thousands of SARS-COV-2 deaths in NZ computer 'modelling' from some Auckland Ivory Tower wallah.

[chook]

oday, 03:02 PM
Originally posted by Judge View Post
Perry are you asking people to make predictions so you can tells us in 6 months they did not come true? Everyone is sick and tired of this game...


A post 18 months ago on another thread from another pissed off forumite