Originally posted by eri
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Price and immigration, is the model a bit off?
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Originally posted by eri View PostThe other big headwind for the economy was likely to be a slowdown in migration in 2019 and 2020.
Infometrics forecasts the annual net migration gain will fall
from 68,900 (for the year to March) to below 17,000 by early 2021.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=12031276
Originally posted by Davo36 View PostHow on earth would you forecast this? Like how can anyone look a few years out and decide immigration will be up or down?
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Interesting to note:
1) immigration down significantly in 2020 compared to 2019 - https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...pared-year-ago
2) house prices, meanwhile have been rising - That means the national median price rose 18.5% year-on-year. - https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...000-last-month
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Originally posted by Chris W View PostInteresting to note:
1) immigration down significantly in 2020 compared to 2019 - https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...pared-year-ago
2) house prices, meanwhile have been rising - That means the national median price rose 18.5% year-on-year. - https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...000-last-month
So, you need to compensate for lag.
Often a cause and effect don't occur at the same time.
When there's a backlog of demand, the price won't drop until it's met.
Last edited by McDuck; 17-12-2020, 06:32 AM.
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Originally posted by Perry View PostBetter to avoid empty guesses and risk being perceived as repetitive than to make so many wrong predictions and remove all possible doubt.
Fyi I have a 94% success rate in all my economic predictions, perhaps you should highlight that instead of the other 6%.Last edited by Jeffa; 06-10-2021, 09:32 AM.
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Originally posted by chook View PostBut your the one asking for all the predictions?
I'm bringing them up to show that most of them - the biggest majority - are wrong.
It's all about credibility and how that has an impact on the standing of the poster making predictions.
Empty vessel makes loudest noise.
One of many examples . . .
Originally posted by Jeffa View PostNo need to quarrel my fellow capitalist!
Jeffas predictions are always accurate! ALWAYS!!
DISCLAIMER:King Jeffa has a margin of error within 3 to 5%. Time frames can very 3 to 6 months.Originally posted by Wayne View PostDidn't you predict negative OCR by years end?Originally posted by Jeffa View PostYes and I was WRONG..WRONG with a capital W!
Did I say I was wrong? Oh yes I said it I was WRONG.
Don't worry Wayne I'm wiping away my crocodile tears with all the money I made this year..
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Originally posted by Perry View PostCan't see how you arrive at that position.
I'm bringing them up to show that most of them - the biggest majority - are wrong.
It's all about credibility and how that has an impact on the standing of the poster making predictions.
Empty vessel makes loudest noise.
One of many examples . . .
Negative interest rates are coming I still stand by that prediction.
Just not in this economic cycle.
Today's increase as was in 2014 a prelude of what is to come.
And you need to work on your mathematics
1 of my predictions doesn't represent a majority dumb as.Last edited by Jeffa; 06-10-2021, 02:45 PM.
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Originally posted by Jeffa View Post1 of my predictions doesn't represent a majority dumb as.
Please go back to your Conspiracy Theories sandpit and play there.
But on the price and immigration model, it does seem almost certain that 'forecasts' and 'modelling' are predictions by another name and just as bad as predictions when it comes to proven accuracy.
Recall the spectre of the tens of thousands of SARS-COV-2 deaths in NZ computer 'modelling' from some Auckland Ivory Tower wallah.
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