• Login:
Welcome, Register Here
follow PropertyTalk on facebook follow PropertyTalk on twitter Newsletter follow PropertyTalk on LinkedIn follow PropertyTalk on facebook
Page 6 of 6 FirstFirst ... 4 5 6
Results 51 to 60 of 60
  1. #51
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    8,325

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Wayne View Post
    It does, of course, depend on what the full story is.
    Do we have the full, real, story via the media?
    What!!!! I can't hear what you're saying!!!! I'm too busy freaking out due to that headline!!!!
    Squadly dinky do!

  2. #52
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Posts
    7,575

    Default

    The other big headwind for the economy was likely to be a slowdown in migration in 2019 and 2020.

    Infometrics forecasts the annual net migration gain will fall

    from 68,900 (for the year to March) to below 17,000 by early 2021.


    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=12031276
    have you defeated them?
    your demons

  3. #53
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    8,325

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by eri View Post
    The other big headwind for the economy was likely to be a slowdown in migration in 2019 and 2020.

    Infometrics forecasts the annual net migration gain will fall

    from 68,900 (for the year to March) to below 17,000 by early 2021.


    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=12031276
    How on earth would you forecast this? Like how can anyone look a few years out and decide immigration will be up or down?
    Squadly dinky do!

  4. #54
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    14,879

    Default

    Soothsayers abound.
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  5. #55
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Posts
    7,575

    Default

    the immigration process takes years

    health reports, police reports, interviews etc

    if not many are in the system 2018

    then there won't be many immigrants in 2020
    have you defeated them?
    your demons

  6. #56
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Posts
    2,796

    Default

    The Treasury has lots of analysts. Forecasting is their day job. They have been saying for several years that net immigration is expected to revert to the long term mean, now within the next 2 or 3 years.

    In recent times, it is emigration that that driven a lot of the net migration, esp the impact of the Australian economy slow down. That is changing so the number leaving should grow fast. They all live somewhere so the housing 'crisis' may solve itself, except for the tenants landlords don't want.

    The Treasury will have updated net migration numbers for the Budget.

  7. #57
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Posts
    7,575

    Default

    it turns out immigration was not at record levels of 72,500 in mid-2017.

    Immigration had peaked a year earlier at 64,000

    What might a full year of headlines about falling immigration have done to undercut the issue's power in the election?

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12201804
    have you defeated them?
    your demons

  8. #58
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    14,879

    Default Up, Down, Flying Around . . .

    Quote Originally Posted by eri View Post
    The other big headwind for the economy was likely to be a slowdown in migration in 2019 and 2020.

    Infometrics forecasts the annual net migration gain will fall

    from 68,900 (for the year to March) to below 17,000 by early 2021.


    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=12031276
    A year later, anyone got insights into how that prediction is tracking?
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  9. #59
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    274

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris W View Post
    How falling prices impact house buying demand in the market. This shows you the dynamic nature of house buying demand and how it can change despite population growth and high net migration. Comment from readers on an article on interest.co.nz

    1) Why tie up equity now? Better to wait. Many investors like me have equity but we'd rather sit on it when the market isn't creating more in a hurry.

    2) The property market here is clearly falling and there's no point in putting yourself at risk of negative equity that could mean that you would loose your home if the banks aren't able to lend to you if prices dropped significantly over the next year which is looking highly likely.



    It seems like the dynamic of falling or stagnant house prices in Auckland is affecting buyer sentiment and buyer confidence and resulting in changed house price expectations in the Auckland market. Hearing of more first home buyers waiting on the sidelines. The property market in Auckland is now being described as a "buyers" market.

    Note that this is despite population growth, recent inbound immigration numbers, and the reported underlying shortage in housing in Auckland.

  10. #60
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    3,581

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris W View Post
    Note that this is despite population growth, recent inbound immigration numbers, and the reported underlying shortage in housing in Auckland.
    Yep - this is the 'flat spot' time in the Auckland property market.
    In 2021 it will be all on again and we'll be looking back at 2019 prices and saying we should have bought a few more back then.


 

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. immigration reform?
    By eri in forum Coffee Lounge
    Replies: 24
    Last Post: 21-08-2015, 09:15 AM
  2. Business Model
    By Proper Ti in forum Property Investment (NZ)
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 10-12-2013, 10:52 PM
  3. NZ Post - A Dinosaur Business Model?
    By Perry in forum Coffee Lounge
    Replies: 8
    Last Post: 28-11-2012, 07:28 AM
  4. Query: Property Valuation - Financial Model?
    By Giopersico in forum Welcome Newbies!
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 27-08-2011, 09:45 PM
  5. The old negative gearing model still works
    By Rosco in forum Finance, legal and tax (NZ)
    Replies: 28
    Last Post: 04-06-2010, 10:53 PM
  6. Property Managers - Understanding the business model
    By Shane D in forum Property Investment (NZ)
    Replies: 12
    Last Post: 21-04-2010, 11:20 AM
  7. A New Model for Green Living in the American Southwest
    By Walter in forum Property Investment (USA)
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 19-10-2006, 08:34 AM
  8. Silver
    By muppet in forum Other Investments
    Replies: 12
    Last Post: 04-07-2004, 04:05 PM
  9. Net immigration falling
    By fudosan in forum Property Investment (NZ)
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 22-06-2004, 04:26 PM

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •