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  1. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wayne View Post
    It does, of course, depend on what the full story is.
    Do we have the full, real, story via the media?
    What!!!! I can't hear what you're saying!!!! I'm too busy freaking out due to that headline!!!!
    Squadly dinky do!

  2. #52
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    The other big headwind for the economy was likely to be a slowdown in migration in 2019 and 2020.

    Infometrics forecasts the annual net migration gain will fall

    from 68,900 (for the year to March) to below 17,000 by early 2021.


    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=12031276
    have you defeated them?
    your demons

  3. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by eri View Post
    The other big headwind for the economy was likely to be a slowdown in migration in 2019 and 2020.

    Infometrics forecasts the annual net migration gain will fall

    from 68,900 (for the year to March) to below 17,000 by early 2021.


    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=12031276
    How on earth would you forecast this? Like how can anyone look a few years out and decide immigration will be up or down?
    Squadly dinky do!

  4. #54
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    Sep 2004
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    Soothsayers abound.
    With all the Draconian new laws for residential rental LLs, perhaps AirBnB would be better? To avoid any hassle in Hawke's Bay, consult Be My Hostess. Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  5. #55
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    Sep 2008
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    the immigration process takes years

    health reports, police reports, interviews etc

    if not many are in the system 2018

    then there won't be many immigrants in 2020
    have you defeated them?
    your demons

  6. #56
    Join Date
    May 2004
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    2,758

    Default

    The Treasury has lots of analysts. Forecasting is their day job. They have been saying for several years that net immigration is expected to revert to the long term mean, now within the next 2 or 3 years.

    In recent times, it is emigration that that driven a lot of the net migration, esp the impact of the Australian economy slow down. That is changing so the number leaving should grow fast. They all live somewhere so the housing 'crisis' may solve itself, except for the tenants landlords don't want.

    The Treasury will have updated net migration numbers for the Budget.

  7. #57
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    Sep 2008
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    it turns out immigration was not at record levels of 72,500 in mid-2017.

    Immigration had peaked a year earlier at 64,000

    What might a full year of headlines about falling immigration have done to undercut the issue's power in the election?

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12201804
    have you defeated them?
    your demons

  8. #58
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    Sep 2004
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    Hastings
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    14,757

    Default Up, Down, Flying Around . . .

    Quote Originally Posted by eri View Post
    The other big headwind for the economy was likely to be a slowdown in migration in 2019 and 2020.

    Infometrics forecasts the annual net migration gain will fall

    from 68,900 (for the year to March) to below 17,000 by early 2021.


    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=12031276
    A year later, anyone got insights into how that prediction is tracking?
    With all the Draconian new laws for residential rental LLs, perhaps AirBnB would be better? To avoid any hassle in Hawke's Bay, consult Be My Hostess. Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!


 

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