Auckland House Prices fall 4 percent

[Wayne]

Does anyone have any data on Japan's property prior to the end of days? Would be interesting to see whether their market was 'normal' before then.

But Wayne - one really has to wonder, what good do higher property prices do for an economy? Surely if land and housing were cheap, our young would be able to afford a house early, and get on with spending massive amounts on furnishings and holidays. In the case of Japan, holidays don't even subtract from GDP much - they love travelling internally, and in nearby Asia.

Really I wasn't even thinking of property prices in Japan - I agree that rising property prices don't do anything for the economy except make us more indebted.
I was really thinking of the deflations etc that have been going through for decades.
People seem to have adjusted and just get on with life.
Of course I haven't studied this so have probably missed lots.

[Nick G]

Japan's population will fall by 30% in the next 30 years. Already towns are being abandoned and folks who "inherit" homes wind up footing a bill to demolish them. Future demand is priced into current pricing. A town I go camping in when there in August is giving away homes. The bubble in the 80's was due to a massive influx of wealth from industrialisation in the previous 15 years and very loose lending policies.

[Wayne]

Japan's population will fall by 30% in the next 30 years. Already towns are being abandoned and folks who "inherit" homes wind up footing a bill to demolish them. Future demand is priced into current pricing. A town I go camping in when there in August is giving away homes. The bubble in the 80's was due to a massive influx of wealth from industrialisation in the previous 15 years and very loose lending policies.

All to do with an ageing population.
It is hitting Japan 1st but others will follow.

Very loose lending policies - where did I see that recently?

[Nick G]

Japan failed to counter this with any kind of immigration. Very Xenophobic unfortunately.

[elguapo]

Japan failed to counter this with any kind of immigration. Very Xenophobic unfortunately.

How do you mean 'failed'? They made a choice to take a different path, the outcome of this will be interesting, as almost everyone else is taking the immigration route to fill the demographic hole, but I'm not convinced it's going to work out as intended.

[Wayne]

How do you mean 'failed'? They made a choice to take a different path, the outcome of this will be interesting, as almost everyone else is taking the immigration route to fill the demographic hole, but I'm not convinced it's going to work out as intended.

I'm not convinced on immigration either way.
Immigration of suitable people (people who add value rather than drag on the economy) to keep the population stable seems like a fair idea.
Adding people to 'grow' the economy is dubious in my book.
Japan did neither - I'm not sure if they made a concious decision knowing the population would fall or if they really took their eye off the ball.

[Nick G]

Institutionalised discrimination which is tolerated by the populace.

Deep down at a cultural difference level many people don't want to get mixed up with other nationalities, particularly the Chinese and Koreans, and are happier for the country to shrink, deal with a bankrupt government or whatever.

That combined with an ingrained reluctance to protest and question authority. Those who don't like the status quo and speak out are stigmitized and ignored.

There's a big furore (well one of many) about Trump selecting which media has access to him, which has been status quo in Tokyo for at least 30 years.

[eri]

japan discusses raising the ago of "old" from 60 to 75

Japan, with its 1.43 TFR, (children per woman) was doing better than South Korea and Singapore (both 1.19), Hong Kong (1.12) and Germany (1.38 ).


So Singapore began looking to Japan and its re-employment age. “When you raise the retirement age, the expectation is ‘same job, same pay’ ... When Japan introduced the idea of re-employment age, the concept is ‘not necessarily the same job, not necessarily the same pay’,” he said, noting that Japan’s re-employment age is still 65.

SINGAPORE — From July, the re-employment age will go up from 65 to 67 and employers will no longer have the option to cut employees’ wages at the age of 60

http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/re-employment-age-be-raised-67-0

[Merlot Mike]

Thanks,


Yeh we are buying for long term.

That's the ticket. There's always some risk but look at your financial situation/job stability and how much equity (deposit) you will have in the place and assess the likelihood of you needing to sell in a down market. If you can ride out the bumps you'll be ahead for sure in a decade or so.

[flyernzl]

But Wayne - one really has to wonder, what good do higher property prices do for an economy?

To me, rising/high house prices are a result not a direct benefit.

Such prices show that there is demand.
Why is there demand?

Can be multiple factors - a nice place to live: stable government with no threats or wars: plenty of good, well-paying employment; easy access to recreational facilities; a good place to set up in business; pleasant weather; in-demand educational facilities - the list could go on and on.

Conversely, places that have negative factors (wars, isolation, droughts, crime, high unemployment) have little demand and low property prices.

So the rise in property prices in NZ in general and Auckland in particular can be seen as a complement to us and the way we run our country.

[Anthonyacat]

High prices and quick price growth show there is demand in excess of supply, quite a distinction from just demand itself.

It can (and arguably is, in Auckland) be due to a poor way of running an area, as much as due to a good way.

[eri]

high property prices are not the best

but better than low property prices

[McDuck]

high property prices are not the best

but better than low property prices

Just like shares, depends when you bought in.
Probably lots of folks around who use their house to live in and the price either way won't improve their quality of life.

[Nick G]

Demand and really low interest rates...

[Learning]

Some of it's artificially inflated demand. So many houses being bought up and left empty.