Auckland House Prices fall 4 percent

[orion]

All the economists this morning basically saying the same thing, volumes down but prices going to increase in Auckland.

If it's in the paper Dean, yes then it must be true.

[Bobsyouruncle]

Yes sales volumes is what I mean Slug.

[ammar]

true while unemployment is low.

Nz is still a low wage economy with comparatively low productivity, around 20% less than the OECD average, therefore wages cannot rise significantly as businesses compete in the global marketplace. Should better prospects arise in other countries NZ will become less desirable for migrants despite our "lifestyle" opportunities.

This is the point, better prospects are unlikely to rise in other countries. It is getting worse.

[McDuck]

This is the point, better prospects are unlikely to rise in other countries. It is getting worse.

You're right, the world has become a very messy place of late, the movement of people across Europe and the world in general has really upset the local systems in the destinations they arrive at. Not only housing and jobs, but socially too, with for example the sexisim of young men from certain countries doing more harm than they could possibly calculate.
As expected, we are now seeing kickbacks, cutbacks, and in general doors slamming shut.

[elguapo]

true while unemployment is low.

Nz is still a low wage economy with comparatively low productivity, around 20% less than the OECD average, therefore wages cannot rise significantly as businesses compete in the global marketplace. Should better prospects arise in other countries NZ will become less desirable for migrants despite our "lifestyle" opportunities.

But this low productivity shows there is a lot of upside potential. If it can be realised, there is a lot of wage growth possible.

[McDuck]

But this low productivity shows there is a lot of upside potential. If it can be realised, there is a lot of wage growth possible.

It's an interesting story, but totally at odds with the reason buisness hires immigrant labor, rather than training local born people or offering higher pay.
Employers want cheap labor.
A smart man could see that they are privatizing the gains and socialising the costs, in the long run.

[drelly]

Not sure that immigrant labour is always about price. I keep hearing from orchard owners that kiwi labour is unreliable. The immigrants turn up, work harder and make good money.

[Nick G]

I'm from Te Puke, many local workers are really good and come back each year, the problem is there arent enough. the folks who are forced by WINZ to work the season dont improve things. Immigrants do work hard, not having a safety net is a big motivator

[ammar]

And in the high skilled side, simply there is no enough people. The highly skilled Kiwis leave to other countries and they return when they are old. The skilled migrants and after some years here lured by better salaries in other countries they also leave and the cycle continues.


Those talking about cutting immigration, need to think again.

[McDuck]

And in the high skilled side, simply there is no enough people. The highly skilled Kiwis leave to other countries and they return when they are old. The skilled migrants and after some years here lured by better salaries in other countries they also leave and the cycle continues.


Those talking about cutting immigration, need to think again.

It's all just self interest dressed as reason.
The locals want work and good conditions for themselves and their children. And the immigrants want to ditch failing overcrowded places . Soon after they decide to get all their friends and relatives along with them, by hook or by crook.
Until they blow out the new place.

[McDuck]

Drelly, yes,
True. Not always.
This is where you need good numbers and good sense to see the real picture.
Kiwi fruit orchard owners would have a totally different experience than say people going to get food or it support in Auckland.

[cube]

My crystalball's as foggy as yours. It could be a short dip just before a massive growth like 2012 or it could be the beginning of a crash like 2007. No one's going to know until after it's happened. each camp has its own evidence and fact based opinions.

How long do you wait to see if the smoke is going to become an inferno or fizzle out? How long is a piece of string?

Ahh yes, the great house price crash of 2007. We remember it well.

[cube]

I promise houses will be worth more in 15-20 years than they are now.

Surely you're investing for the long term, right?

Promise, as in guarantee? Careful now...

Chart: Accumulated (residential) Land Price Changes in Tokyo's Central Wards and Central
Osaka City



Source : http://tochi.mlit.go.jp/h19hakusho/c...u_1-1_eng.html

[Wayne]

Japan makes for a fascinating study.
For all its' economic woes it seems to still do well overall.

[Anthonyacat]

Does anyone have any data on Japan's property prior to the end of days? Would be interesting to see whether their market was 'normal' before then.

But Wayne - one really has to wonder, what good do higher property prices do for an economy? Surely if land and housing were cheap, our young would be able to afford a house early, and get on with spending massive amounts on furnishings and holidays. In the case of Japan, holidays don't even subtract from GDP much - they love travelling internally, and in nearby Asia.