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I predict Trump takes the White House in January, and is bored of it by March, but doesn't admit this until September. Ceases active presidential duties by year end, figurehead only.
Or are we only talking NZ stuff?
There will probably be a major war or economic meltdown by then
1 - Sun comes up every morning but we may not see it if cloudy
2 - Sun goes down in the evening
3 - Earth keeps spinning but gradually slows till it stops spinning in about 2 billion years
4 - Trump is assinated in 2017
5 - People will continue to moan about house availability in Auckland while dreaming of the quarter acre dream within 5 minutes drive of the CBD and the media will forget about the other 3 million people in NZ outside Auckland.
- Auckland housing market continues its current softening as investors continue to wait it out, not realising it might be a 5 year trough.
- Everything else is reliant on Trump and what he does. US Trade war with China is almost certain - which inevitably will stoke inflation in the US and higher interest rates will ripple across the world.
The big boys in the development and finance communities will work out a way to hedge settlement risk and construction costs sensibly so these properties actually get built in Auckland. Foreign construction firms become bigger players.
Trump will find out the hard way what he can and can't get away with and operates under massive scrutiny and protest.
Trade sanctions against Russia.
Economic issues in the US as tax reform is tried, lord knows if it succeeds.
OK. I might as well have a go.
Totally expecting Perry to pull this up a year from now and prove me wrong.
I see Global trade and therfore global credit taking a huge hit because of the kickback from everyday people who are not getting a fair shake from the economic religion that was Globalisation.
I see social media forming a new global consciousness, particularly in the moral sense, and superficial luxury lifestyles shown on the media, breeding a new intense dissatisfaction in the cheap labor forces of the countries with huge populations.
These two factors may lead to inflation returning and credit retreating.
Totally expecting Perry to pull this up a year from now and prove me wrong.
I doubt you'll be alone.
I suspect that the idea of this thread is for us all to return at various times in 2017, crowing I told you so, or, hoping no one noticed what was said.
I suspect that the idea of this thread is for us all to return at various times in 2017, crowing I told you so, or, hoping no one noticed what was said.
Ha. It's all in good fun. I still reckon there's work to be done in understanding the forces that shape our economic world.
it's the hidden relationships between governments and energy or say financial collectives that go on in whispered tones in private rooms that must shape many things.
I watch, I deduce, I remember.
But it's as difficult as trying to see the shape of a huge sea creature when only the fin rides above the surface every now and again.
Rosco Hamilton is an interesting market and I own there so a bit biased. I think house prices were low there to begin with so median house price of $500k which it is currently looks ok right as there isn't a massive difference between Auckland avg wages and Hamilton avg wages so bot as out of whack as a $900k median price in Auckland? Still looks like a decent amount of migration coming into Hamilton with the uni, Wintec and movement of some light manufacturing to Te Rapa and of course the inland port.
If interest rates go up I think some investors and home owners will get seriously burnt.
Auckland is a different market - I predict flat first couple of months of 2017 but overall still 5% increase over whole year in prices.
Rest of country - I think has over peaked. I think everyone has got greedy watching Auckland, and gambled. When the fundamentals of population growth and rent increases don't happen to the degree needed, the prices rises will stall. Then if interest rates go up, some investors especially will be forced to sell in next 1-3 years. So I predict Hamilton and Tauranga down 5-10% in 2017. Rest of the country to stall, basically flat year, and might go down if jumped too much in 2015 and 2016.
I don't think debt to income levels will come in, but they would be a good way to protect house buyers and investors. Basically stops people pushing too far and stops them getting in trouble.
Agree with the above. It leaves me wondering if we just have less people living in Christchurch or the applicants are just doubling up. ie I have had a few applicants eg two couples, who want to share a 3 bedroom townhouse. I am not keen as it creates hassles with extra cars. Lots of new apartments coming on stream as well.
Agree with the above. It leaves me wondering if we just have less people living in Christchurch or the applicants are just doubling up. ie I have had a few applicants eg two couples, who want to share a 3 bedroom townhouse. I am not keen as it creates hassles with extra cars. Lots of new apartments coming on stream as well.
Maybe less inward migration and tradies associated with the rebuild are now leaving?
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