Predictions for 2017

[donna]

Hi All,

I was trying to find the 'predictions for 2016' thread but I guess we never did one. Previous years we've predicted all sorts of outcomes.

The Predictions for 2015 was a very popular discussion with nearly 500 replies and 66,000 views. I wonder how this thread will do? I predict it will reach... No seriously so much has happened in 2016 that I doubt anyone would have thought possible. John Key resigning that really has topped of a year of surprises.

So what's install for us in 2017?

A Little Government? (umm Andrew needs to change his name). With it more fury directed at us (property investors)?

What about house prices? Rise, Fall, Plateau?

Is Trump going to last the year? China's unhappy, so is Mexico but they need to line up behind so many everyday Americans whom are still in shock at the result and God only knows how many unhinged disenfranchised gun toting nutters are keen to get a pop at him maybe as soon as January.

All going well - i.e. no major disasters - natural or otherwise it should be business as usual for most of us in 2017. What's your predictions?

cheers,

Donna

[Perry]

Winston First for PM.

[muppet]

Who?
Wiley Win!
Nah, too old.

[muppet]

New Zealand to scrap the $100 note.
Better start collecting now.

[pooky]

Hmmmm.

Trump will sidle up to Russia with his 'keep your friends close and enemies closer' metality which may save the baltic states and have Russia/us stare down China and North Korea in the south China sea.

If Trump gets all those infrastrucure projects running in the rust belt, he may dodge a bullet. Figuratively and Literally.

Britain will formally exit the EU, which will make all those excitable EU types very grumpy and act like 5 year olds. And tell the EU to stick there 'you have to pay $5 Billion in obligations' fee. Then britain will set up a whole bunch of other trade agreements.

More countries will leave the EU.

More borders will close to refugees as fear rules at this point in history.

On the Home front.

Labour will look like they're catching up and catching up and nearly getting there, then completely muck it up and lose th election by slightly less than last time.

National will spend more on infrastructure across the country...so seriously in fact that 10 bridges actually get built in Northland.
Steady as it goes will get them back in because while everyone thought Brexit was 'WOW', Trump getting in made everyone else go 'WTF'.
We may be sheeple but we aren't maniacly stupid.

Winston will get in and wait for his tummy to get rubbed before helping national.

Investing.

Debt income ratio's won't be introduced. Just kept as a fear stick.

Pockets of the country will have house prices rise but will stabilise everywhere else to the point where it might be worth haggling again.
International share prices may rise now that Wall st completely runs the white house. If the fee's drop, might be worth a share invest. Big might.

Tourism will keep roaring along.

Psychic Pooky speaks....*

*Note: Based on history, the odds of Psychic Pooky being correct about any of the above is about 1 in 40 million. Buy a lotto ticket for better odds.

[Perry]

But buying a lotto ticket wont be as amusing.

[cube]

Russia to attempt to take over Ukraine, with the help of Turkey
NATO Helpless without the help of an indecisive US
Mike Pence removed from office after serious historical child abuse allegations.
Sarah Palin becomes VP
ISIS reduced to (yet) another group stuffing up the middle east, but no more so than any of the others.
Serious aggression in the South China Sea leading to a plane being shot down or a navy ship sunk on one side or the other.
Significant progress in the development of artificial (plant based or lab-grown) meat and milk, putting a spike in NZ's prospects.
Me to win $10M+ on Lotto (well, it is as likely as anything else I've written!)

[drelly]

Political chaos in the USA.
News starts to look more like an episode of Robocop
Military robots used in combat
Increasing resistance to religion

[donna]

Nice one - what a great read!

If Labour get in maybe the DTI for investors will too?

Probably not the predictions we want to hear, must less discuss - I wonder what the odds are on Prince Philip kicking the bucket in 2017?

I'm not going to win Lotto unless someone buys me a ticket.

[Perry]

A gNats - Winston First coalition, after the General election.

A short time later, Winston is deposed as NZF leader in favour of . . . . ?

Jareth Morgueman's Opportunist Party gets minimal votes.

[Rosco]

If interest rates go up I think some investors and home owners will get seriously burnt.

Auckland is a different market - I predict flat first couple of months of 2017 but overall still 5% increase over whole year in prices.

Rest of country - I think has over peaked. I think everyone has got greedy watching Auckland, and gambled. When the fundamentals of population growth and rent increases don't happen to the degree needed, the prices rises will stall. Then if interest rates go up, some investors especially will be forced to sell in next 1-3 years. So I predict Hamilton and Tauranga down 5-10% in 2017. Rest of the country to stall, basically flat year, and might go down if jumped too much in 2015 and 2016.

I don't think debt to income levels will come in, but they would be a good way to protect house buyers and investors. Basically stops people pushing too far and stops them getting in trouble.

Ross

[Perry]

National Super

Now that Shonkey's gone, look out for an announcement about increasing the eligibility age for National Super. But not until after the 2017 election - of course!

---

New Prime Minister Bill English will not renew his predecessor's pledge not to raise the retirement age.
13 Dec 2016

Many experts say Super is becoming increasingly unaffordable and the age of entitlement needs go up. John Key said he would quit as prime minister before raising the retirement age of 65. Mr English said he would not make any similar commitment. "I'm not making the same pledge as the previous prime minister did. That was a product of its time, where there was a need to establish trust.

That last bit is pollie-code-speak for "need to buy votes."

[Learning]

Increase in retirement age to 67. Starting in 2018 at 3mths a year over next 8 years.

Interest rate increase fizzles back down to 0.5% above current after a short spike.

Labour improves on last election result but still falls well short. Winnie sells the kingship to Nat for grey hair's policies.

Dunne losses seat or doesn't run. End of United Future.

US, Trump survives assassination attempt, would be assassin doesn't.

UK negotiaties a watered down EU distancing and largely remains in the EU.

[Jackson77]

Predictions for 2017

Heya its that fun time of the year when we all get our crystal balls out and start predicting. It will be funny to look at them at the end of next year and see what came through and what didn't!

Here are mine:

- Immigration and Housing become the major news stories of 2017, I think there's a massive undercurrent of anti-immigrant feeling building up in the last 2 years
- National lose the election undone by JK leaving, housing situation getting worse (and highlighted by the media), Bill being ineffective. Greens/Lab/NZ First govt come in but do nothing on housing in 2017
- Regional NZ continues to see house price increases driven by investors priced out of AKL and WAIBOP. My bank manager was saying they are seeing a lot of customers buying in Tokoroa, Whakatane and Rotorua post 40% LVR
- Auckland slows down but maybe increased competition in under $800k range as FHB and recent immigrants compete in that area. Still think AKL will grow +5% in 2017
- People looking to move up the ladder may find it harder to service loans due to long term rate hikes so fall in turnover of $800k-$1.2m homes that are further away from the city, not in good school zones
- Rents increase on the back of rate rises, homelessness increase, more overcrowding of tenants
- Threat of DTIs on investors post election
- New CVs coming out in Auckland October 2017- will be interesting to see if this "locks in" the gains of the last 3 years
- ABs lose to the Lions 2-1
- Blues make the Super Rugby playoffs

Hmmmm what else????

[Anthonyacat]

Thought there was already a Predictions thread? Oh well, reckon they'll merge them if there was.

I predict Trump takes the White House in January, and is bored of it by March, but doesn't admit this until September. Ceases active presidential duties by year end, figurehead only.

Or are we only talking NZ stuff?