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How will the current boom end?
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How will the current boom end?
47Aussie recovery causing reversal in migration numbers19.15%9Government/RNBZ policy having an effect14.89%7China recalls capital en-masse10.64%5Gental return to 'normal' (whatever that means)17.02%8Global Financial Crisis V2.0 destroying confidence19.15%9Some other event4.26%2Boom? What Boom?0.00%0This is the new normal12.77%6Baby Boomers in massive 'sell up and go on holiday' move2.13%1Last edited by cube; 02-08-2016, 01:18 PM.DFTBATags: None
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External, the result of the currency wars will not be pretty.Free online Property Investment Course from iFindProperty, a residential investment property agency.
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With increasing unrest in the northern hemisphere, ongoing immigration and the lowest unemployment in years... when will it bust? Perhaps it with just stagnate for another decade?You can find me at: Energise Web Design
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The boom started with Auckland and will end only when Auckland has a price reversal
I think it will take 3 years for that.
If 30,000 homes can be built every year which quite plausible given the spurts in building permits being issued and skilled workmen getting relieved from Christchurch and moving to Auckland , the mad race to buy properties in fear of missing the bus will diminish.
Once a 100,000 new homes will be available, the trend will reverse as has happened in Christchurch
Only when this happens in Auckland, the rest of the country will follow suit.
We have to live with high property prices till 2019 as was written in a detailed article a few days ago
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Building a new home is much easier and faster then rebuilding a devastated home.
I think most of the homes in Christchurch were rebuilt, which require much more skill and time.
Most of the mass houses to be built in Auckland, I think would follow limited number of designs so that the engineering calculations would be eliminated and mass production of timber frames , windows , roofs , doors , kitchen cabinets would be possible.
This will reduce the requirements for skilled labour and ensure faster turn around of the labour force.
so with the same labour force, the output may go up several fold as compared to ChCH
Cheers
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Well if they're making 6 at a time on a section that will speed things up more than anything.
I'm sure the council will find a way to add more costs to keep things compliant.Free online Property Investment Course from iFindProperty, a residential investment property agency.
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Demand for skilled labour I.e. Builders, Plumbers, sparkles etc will skyrocket... Their costs will skyrocket with demand and bottle neck the speed of new builds... Problem is it takes 3-4 years to train these guys so not something that can be turned on fast.
this increased demand will also put up costs for existing home owners who need plumbing/electrical work diving cost us across the board...
if if you haven't designed a system for the increased demand be it building houses or demand on electricity grids or motorways you won't get the desired outcome...
In the housing market I can't see the preparatory work needed to facilitate the increased building happening so in my view there will be lower than needed building for the foreseeable future.
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Originally posted by Nick G View PostWell if they're making 6 at a time on a section that will speed things up more than anything.
I'm sure the council will find a way to add more costs to keep things compliant.
If I were 16 y.o. Now and the options ahead of me were finish school the 4yrs at Uni to then get an entry level corporate job OR do a trade (sparky) be qualified by 20 in a high demand environment for my skills.
I think that is the way I'd go.
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Originally posted by Don't believe the Hype View Postthis is is possible if you change design of construction... I.e multistory vs. townhouses... But still need skilled trades to fit out/finish...
If I were 16 y.o. Now and the options ahead of me were finish school the 4yrs at Uni to then get an entry level corporate job OR do a trade (sparky) be qualified by 20 in a high demand environment for my skills.
I think that is the way I'd go.
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Originally posted by cube View PostHow will it all end?
While the impetuous is difficult to predict in the current and rather unique environment, e.g. low interest rates, low inflation and high NZD (which forces the RBNZ to retain lower rates), a shock to the credit system is foreseeable where offshore events increase the cost of borrowing locally, much akin to the sub-prime crisis where offshore funding costs shot through the roof.
The monthly numbers for Mortgage debt credit growth is continuing to show grow YoY and at some point this becomes unstable, due to;
a) Bank's running out of money to lend (i.e. they hit capital constraints due to a finite local savings pool);
b) Borrowers face a diminishing marginal ability to borrow as the value of properties ultimately exceeds their affordability levels'
c) Offshore demand begins to wane.
c) Government intervention - i.e. the RBNZ intervenes to slow growth, potentially affecting either points a) or b) above, or the Government begins to cap foreign buyers (c).
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Originally posted by Boom View PostContinued stagflation, rising unemployment, and rising super/health costs for another decade eventually force a government to change either or both - baby boomers forced to sell en masse.
Don't hold your breath though, the old folks are tough from hanging on to careers through dog-eat-dog restructures, they have worked hard for what they have and won't be going anywhere any time soon.
Methinks you will have to wait until they shuffle off their mortal coil, and with their means don't be surprised if many are still around when you are feeling the years.
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