On average, earthquakes of magnitude 7.5 or larger strike along the Alpine Fault every 300 years - a relatively frequent rate in geological terms - and scientists say it's highly likely the next big quake will happen in the lifetime of today's population.
It last ruptured 299 years ago - producing a massive earthquake of about magnitude 8.0 - and has an average 30 per cent probability of rupturing in the next 50 years.
GNS Science maintains the rupture would produce one of the biggest earthquakes since European settlement of New Zealand and have a "major impact" on the lives of people across the country.
"We are still talking about a South Island-wide impact that will be felt across all of those different CDEM regions - that's why we need to do this work so we can get all of the plans in place.
It last ruptured 299 years ago - producing a massive earthquake of about magnitude 8.0 - and has an average 30 per cent probability of rupturing in the next 50 years.
GNS Science maintains the rupture would produce one of the biggest earthquakes since European settlement of New Zealand and have a "major impact" on the lives of people across the country.
"We are still talking about a South Island-wide impact that will be felt across all of those different CDEM regions - that's why we need to do this work so we can get all of the plans in place.
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