Christchurch predictions over the next 5years

[eri]

On average, earthquakes of magnitude 7.5 or larger strike along the Alpine Fault every 300 years - a relatively frequent rate in geological terms - and scientists say it's highly likely the next big quake will happen in the lifetime of today's population.

It last ruptured 299 years ago - producing a massive earthquake of about magnitude 8.0 - and has an average 30 per cent probability of rupturing in the next 50 years.

GNS Science maintains the rupture would produce one of the biggest earthquakes since European settlement of New Zealand and have a "major impact" on the lives of people across the country.

"We are still talking about a South Island-wide impact that will be felt across all of those different CDEM regions - that's why we need to do this work so we can get all of the plans in place.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11729209

[eri]

"What's happened is now everyone who's needed a house has pretty much got one

and they're still building them.

They're building them flat out . . .

all these development companies are month after month submitting 20-30 consents each for essentially spec housing."

"There will be a correction.

The number of buildings and the total number of dwellings being built will fall off really rapidly.

It'll go below that business as usual level, because we've got a major oversupply at the moment.

Potentially that effect could run on for the building sector in Canterbury for the next two, maybe three years."

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/prop...-building-boom

[Nick G]

What's the population forecast like?

[Wayne]

To be expected - always happen.
I think the article explains it all very well.

[eri]

there was a 30 per cent chance of a major earthquake in the next 50 years.

The Alpine Fault last ruptured three hundred years ago in 1717, shaking the South Island at an intensity of at least magnitude-8 and causing the ground to break over a distance of at least 375 kilometres.

A new study...... revised the average time.... every 291 years, plus or minus 23 years.

Previously, the estimated rate was every 329 years, plus or minus 26 years.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/90081709/new-study-says-alpine-fault-quake-interval-shorter-than-thought-gns-science

[Courham]

And who would want to be living in Wellington when that one hits if it goes near the northern end of the South Island? At least CHCH has plenty of roads out of it

[eri]

your house could easily not get hit in the next 50 years

can't say the same about insurance premiums

[Nick G]

It starts. Still under what was there before the quake but as leases wind up I think the central city will start to fill up.

http://i.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/90017095/Hundreds-more-office-workers-join-march-back-to-central-Christchurch

[Courham]

Absolute waste of time (and ridiculous gov't policy to send gov't departments back there) to put offices back into former CBD. CBD was dying for decades pre-earthquake and no reason rebuild as it was, talk about living in the past but wouldn't expect anything less for the "visionaries" in charge o the rebuild. Retail had been dying for the past twenty years in the CBD as it headed to the suburban malls, will sending office workers back there save/reinvent a dinosaur from the past? Doubtful.

The whole business hub/ CBD should be heading west on the main arterials around the airport where the land is firm, not rebuilding on the swamps & streams around the Avon.

Craig

[Jeffa]

My prediction

There won't be any.

Ah yes,this sounds like all the nay sayers when I started buying in Manurewa back in 2011, then I started in Hamilton in 2012 then I bought 2 in Wellington in 2013 can you guess were Im buying now?...its the old saying be greedy when others are fearfull and fearfull when others are greedy..my pention started at 40 Bill

[Nick G]

http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/estimates_and_projections/ta-pop-projections-2013-43-update.aspx

Here's a screenshot of Christchurch median projections (as of 2013)



By how many houses does ChCh have too many? 1,000? That absorbs a population of 2,500 people? Which is about 1 - 1.5 years of pop growth? Recall that it takes about that long to go from scratch to completed house (including land prep) so unless people simply don't show up we could be back to ChCh not having enough homes by late 2018.

What am I missing?

[CHCBW]

Sound reasoning, interested to hear what others have to say on this

[grip]

a year on nothing has changed, the market is still flat.