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  1. #11
    Join Date
    Jan 2015
    Posts
    188

    Default

    Yep, theres never a boom and a gentle tailing off, its a boom and a bust.

    The chinese link to chch will be great though

  2. #12

    Default

    Do we accurately predict though that the world will always boom and bust like it always has, or has/will changing regulations or attitude or anything made a change for the better? As in, will a bust be as bad as previous busts?

  3. #13

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelKarabassis View Post
    Do we accurately predict though that the world will always boom and bust like it always has, or has/will changing regulations or attitude or anything made a change for the better? As in, will a bust be as bad as previous busts?
    I personally think that the "correction", would be very smoothly go through, rather than a sudden bust. The reason could be very complex, maybe the authority and bank lending facility still remember the lesson from 2007, investors suffered before become more sensitive nowadays and well prepared for the "correction". The key support is the low mortgage rate environment and it will keep for a while. I do not think it would be a major or big correction occur.

    Anyway, we need demand for house and population to go through this gentle correction. Not painful, even we cannot feel it for two or three years.

  4. #14
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Location
    Tavua, Fiji
    Posts
    3,347

    Default

    Unless you live there the real question is why would you bother buying there. It is arguably more risky than most other cities in New Zealand and is highly speculative. if you're a local then of course that's different but if you just want somewhere to invest go north young man. Tauranga, Hamilton, Palmy are all safer in terms of future EQ issues and uncertainty about rebuild quality and repatriation.

  5. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Posts
    213

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Damap View Post
    Unless you live there the real question is why would you bother buying there.
    Because it is NZ's second largest city..? Comes with a few advantages.

    By repatriation do you mean an exodus of Phillipinos post rebuild? Highly unlikely in my opinion (at least based on those I have met). They love it here. They work hard are very versatile and I am pretty sure they will have no problem finding work in the future. Rebuild will wind down but I'm picking a gradual wind down, not a bust.

  6. #16
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Location
    Tavua, Fiji
    Posts
    3,347

    Default

    No I meant people returning TO Christchurch.....

  7. #17

    Default

    Hi Orion,The point of my question is to have a discussion with other investors on our opinions of the future growth in Christchurch,That is the general idea of why this forum is used isn't it?,My opinion is things will stay flat for sometime,might be 5 years,could be 10..but I believe it will pay dividends to those that are patient..

  8. #18
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    Hawkes Bay
    Posts
    1,745

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Jasonm View Post
    Hi Orion,The point of my question is to have a discussion with other investors on our opinions of the future growth in Christchurch,That is the general idea of why this forum is used isn't it?,My opinion is things will stay flat for sometime,might be 5 years,could be 10..but I believe it will pay dividends to those that are patient..
    No, you may believe that but definitely no.
    If you start investing for capital gains, someday you will lose big time.
    Invest for cashflow, never try to pick the markets or buy anything because you think it might go up in value.
    If you enjoy doing that, try the casino or lotto, but not property.
    Most focus on doing exactly that, and most end up eventually losing it all.

  9. #19
    Join Date
    Jan 2016
    Location
    Christchurch
    Posts
    20

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by orion View Post
    No, you may believe that but definitely no.
    If you start investing for capital gains, someday you will lose big time.
    Invest for cashflow, never try to pick the markets or buy anything because you think it might go up in value.
    If you enjoy doing that, try the casino or lotto, but not property.
    Most focus on doing exactly that, and most end up eventually losing it all.
    I have to agree here. I have a few friends who invested just for capital gains, and I can't say they look pretty from my view point (not that they would admit it) Even though I live in Christchurch I will not invest here. We brought here to live but so far that's as far as I go in terms of buying in Christchurch for now anyway. But I must say it has been rather entertaining with all these different opinions and I am sure that is why OP posted it to get different opinions.

  10. #20

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by orion View Post
    No, you may believe that but definitely no.
    If you start investing for capital gains, someday you will lose big time.
    Invest for cashflow, never try to pick the markets or buy anything because you think it might go up in value.
    If you enjoy doing that, try the casino or lotto, but not property.
    Most focus on doing exactly that, and most end up eventually losing it all.
    I don't remember specifying that I only invest for capital gains but thanks for your concern..I do however buy properties in locations that I feel have a strong potential upside for future growth..There is a big difference between speculation and an educated long term buy and hold strategy.


 

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