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  1. #11
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    LINK: http://morrisandwatson.com/blog/be-c...-you-wish-for/

    Be Careful What You Wish For…

    Posted on April 29, 2015 by Kieran Morris

    After weeks of low volatility range trading, precious metals finally broke trend, with sharp losses seen last Friday, with Gold settling below the key support of $1180. Fridays have been particularly bearish sessions as investors concerned with holding long positions over the weekend opt to close positions out. Rumours that Greece was closer to a bailout deal after Thursdays summit of Eurozone ministers fuelled those concerns. However, the Greek debt situation still appears far from over, especially after Greek Prime Minister demoted lead negotiator and Finance Minister following months of ineffectiveness in resolving the countries debt obligations. This saw the yellow metal regain lost ground to close nearly $30 higher on Monday. In fact we’ve witnessed a complete turn-around in the fortunes of precious metals. On the one week performance, Silver led the surge higher jumping 6.1% higher, while both Platinum and Gold climbed 3% from this time last week.

    Meanwhile, the US dollar index has been dragged lower, after disappointing U.S data (weaker Consumer confidence) and dampened expectations that the Fed will hint at this week’s FOMC of an imminent rate hike. This is the latest in a series of lacklustre data from the states, with yesterdays the US flash services PMI also missing consensus. A weaker USD is positive for commodities like gold which are priced in USD as it makes them cheaper for non-dollar users. Unfortunately the weakness in USD has also pushed commodity currencies such as the NZD higher. So in NZD terms, Gold is still hovering around the $1600 NZD per oz. level. Undervalued on medium term charts.

    Looking ahead, the next 24 hours should be very eventful. Tonight we get an update on US 1st quarter GDP with estimates as low as just 0.1% annualised. Followed by tomorrow morning’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Then closer to home, we get the latest thinking from our own Reserve Bank. Expectations are that they will try and talk the NZ currency down given how low inflation is currently running. Personally I’m looking for higher levels in the NZD/ Gold levels in the coming week.

    By Adam Van Sambeek, Treasury Manager.

  2. #12
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    Gold settling below the key support of $1180
    Appears to be at US$1209 on the CNBC website at the moment.
    "There's one way to find out if a man is honest-ask him. If he says 'yes,' you know he is a crook." Groucho Marx

  3. #13
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    Hi Muppet, that particular piece of the article was covering a recent event - it stated that gold settled below 1200 "last Friday".

    A few sentences later the OP moves closer to the present position "This saw the yellow metal regain lost ground to close nearly $30 higher on Monday."

    The article is an opinion piece and is not intended to be used for live pricing. It solely aims to provide a market update from Adam's own perspective covering recent, current and sometimes speculating about future events.

  4. #14
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    Posted May 6th: http://morrisandwatson.com/blog/prec...volatile-week/

    Silver again out-shined with a 3% gain, Palladium + 2%, while both Gold and Platinum traded 1.5% higher from the same time last week.

    Trading hasn’t been without some trepidations, bullion traders once again closing positions into the weekend. Fridays have now become renowned for this mass exodus of risk. Gold sinking to six week lows, breaking below $1,170 per oz. before clawing back slightly into the close. Even a falling US dollar and generally poor US data didn’t support Friday's metal prices. Recognising this trend allows us to identify opportunities and eliminate panic decisions. Monday saw safe-haven buyers back in the market after developments in the Middle East over the weekend and bargain hunters restore last week’s Gold losses. Though the recovery did pick up steam following last night’s US data miss, temporarily reaching key psychological $1,200 level, to currently settle just below at $1,195.

    Fundamentals are slowly moving back in the favour of holding precious metals. Physical demand in Asia appears to be picking up again at the currently lower prices. While US data fails to deliver promised growth. Overnight, US trade deficit of $51.4 billion was much larger than the expected $41.2 billion and the worst reading since October 2008. This highlights the dollar's strong headwind effect on US manufacturing, eroding the country's global competitiveness. How long can the US dollar maintain present strength?

    Looking ahead, most participants should remain cautious ahead of Friday's blockbuster US non-farm payroll data, which is forecast at 231,000 in April, after an unusually weak reading of 126,000 in March. Following some soft US numbers and the central bank's shift to a data-dependent stance of monetary policy, the data could provide clues on when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, and therefore the direction of precious metals dominate pricing factor, the US dollar.

    By Adam Van Sambeek, Treasury Manager.

  5. #15
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    Strong Demand for Gold and Precious Metal Continues in Spite of Data-Filled Week

    Posted on May 13, 2015 by Kieran Morris
    LINK: http://morrisandwatson.com/blog/stro...a-filled-week/


    After a data filled week, precious metals still remain in relatively tight trading ranges, barely changed from this time last week. While we’ve still experiencing some whippy trading sessions, the ultimate outcomes have done very little to denote direction. Friday’s much anticipated US non-farms payroll data was viewed as positive on meeting market expectations. Revisions lower from last month’s pervious report perhaps tempered traders relief following a recent string of weaker economic releases. Although one piece of less negative data shouldn’t rise expectations of interest hikes happening anytime in June.


    Across in China, news of further stimulus from China’s central bank cutting their one year lending rate by 25 basis points to 5.1% should have a positive flow on effect for commodities. These changes are aimed stimulating their slowing economy to reach its 7% growth targets. Expectations are that this is not the last stimulus, with further easing to follow in the coming months. Lack of commodity demand out of China certainly hasn’t gone unnoticed by the precious metals sector.


    Closer to home, we’ve finally found some relief from a high NZD. Since the NZ Reserve Bank hinted it would cut interest rates if demand weakens and inflation remained low, many major banks have come out revising their interest rate forecasts. ANZ Bank is calling for interest rate cuts in both June and July, along with First NZ Capital calling for cuts. This resulted in sharp 2 cent correction in the NZD/USD. Adding fuel to calls for interest cuts, NZ employment data released late last week showed our unemployment rate for the first quarter remained at 5.8% vs expectations of a drop to 5.5%. Our rock star economy may be having Justin Bieber like fall from fame. This isn’t of course all bad, those holding Gold paid in NZD will be reaping the benefits. So noted in this report, I’ve fancied Gold in NZD terms, therefore the recent demise of NZD has seen Gold values in NZD climb 2%, while USD pricing remain stagnant.


    Gold's trading patterns appear to be forming a wedge, with declining highs, but with lows remain unbroken, forming progressively resilient support. This doesn’t mean that we can now assume a price floor is in place, it just highlights strong demand for Gold at the US$1150-1170 per oz. area. On the topside, we’ll need a break of US$1205 per oz. before we can feel more convinced about future higher prices. Otherwise we have a clear trading range in which we can sell into spikes around US$1200-1205 with protective stop losses close to US$1210 -1215 per oz. However, my preference is to buy on dips around US$1175-1180 per oz.


    By Adam Van Sambeek, Treasury Manager

  6. #16
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    21/05/15

    Hello all, I decided to delay this week’s report to accommodate the release of April's FOMC minutes this morning. After reading them however I’m not sure I should have bothered, there’s little to get excited about. The minutes show several members cast doubt on the likelihood of a June rate hike, which came as no surprise, but didn’t fully rule it out. There’s been contraction in US growth in the first quarter of the year, which was put down to bad weather and a strong US dollar. Expectations are that the US economy should show signs of accelerated growth, which could raise the chances of a September rate rise. I’m still picking later than this.

    There was little reaction in the Precious metals markets, with Gold futures closing up US$2.60 on the day to US$1,209.30 per ounce, down from the pre-FOMC level of US$1,212.30. Trade has ranged from US$1,202.7 to $1,213.2 over night. If you recall last week’s report I noted that Gold prices were forming a wedge pattern, comprising of lower highs and stable lows. This setup usually signals a break out pattern, which was realised last week when Gold burst US$1210 resistance last Wednesday, spiking to $1232 by Monday in very short order. Now that we’ve broken our old predictable trading ranges, I believe we’re now in a new higher sideways trading range. I’m expecting the US$1200 -1205 level to establish a new base, with Gold prices struggling at the 200 day moving average of circa US$1225- 1230 resistance level. Silver should also follow suit, after finally breaching US$17 resistance. This isn’t to say that we can’t retest lower levels, it just seems less likely that we will stay down for too long. It’s a matter of what can’t go down must go up.

    We’ve seen the continued benefits of a weaker NZ dollar, edging precious metals higher in NZ terms. Over the past month the NZD has given up 4.2%, touching intraday lows overnight of 0.7281. The Kiwi opens this morning below 0.73, buying just 0.7298 U.S cents. We’re now on the cusp of breaching 12 month lows as attentions turn to todays Annual budget release and key U.S manufacturing and housing data for direction and support.

    By Adam Van Sambeek, Treasury Manager


  7. #17
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    This week's OMF Metals Report by Kevin Morgan highlights gold and silver's retreat as USD is resurgent. See link for post with full report including trading recommendations.

    LINK: https://plus.google.com/u/2/b/106509...ts/2D6hXgDaq5M

  8. #18
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    Sometimes you get days where market reactions can be difficult to quantify. Take last night for instance, it was all one way traffic, buying USD, selling everything else.

    After a three day weekend, it was the somewhat hawkish comments made last Friday by Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen that ignited the US dollar rally. Yellen stated that recent data was encouraging and could eventually lead to an interest rate increase this year. Well, the market loved this well-defined hint, and following a night of mixed data, which had traders focusing on the positives, a 1.3% rally in the US dollar ensued.

    It is widely known that a strong USD dollar has an adverse effect on commodities, which saw in a broad based commodity and equity sell off. In an environment where herd mentality is rife, you tend to get overreactions in some sectors. This appears to be the case in the precious metals. In reality, we’ve seen no significant change in the macro environment for gold, which suggests recent price action may have been driven more by external influences, particularly the dollar.

    Greek talks remain unproductive and combined with the new fear of gains by Spanish anti-austerity parties in regional elections added to the mood of uncertainty. Equities have been looking toppy and while last night’s equity sell off was pretty orderly, this could easily turn into a stampede if it gathers momentum. All very good reasons for not selling Gold.

    Support in Gold is around the US$1180 level, which suggests that current levels of US$1187 per oz. should be viewed as tempting. If we were content buying these levels a couple of weeks ago, and nothing materially has changed, then we should be buying happily again. Silver at 16.75 per oz. is just ‘back filling’ last week’s sharp move higher. These corrections, after extended spikes higher, help build stronger foundations. View last night’s move as an opportunity, rather than a setback. Be bold when others are scared.

    #gold #hold #USD #greece

    By Adam Van Sambeek, Treasury Manager.

    LINK: https://plus.google.com/u/2/b/111147...ts/E61b7rpAZiX

  9. #19
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    Link: http://morrisandwatson.com/blog/trea...-for-platinum/

    It may be a shortened week, but already we’ve seen plenty of excitement. Monday saw a surprising spike in Gold prices, making a brief foray above $1,200, but with very little follow through, prices quickly retreated. I couldn’t find any explanation for this sharp jump in price, except that Mondays are notorious for thin volumes, and being the first day of the new month, we tend to see a fresh allocation of managed funds hit the market. Once again, Gold prices settled back into the regular trading range between US$1175 and US$1225.

    Meanwhile, Greeks and officials from the ECB and the IMF remain locked in negotiations. Greece looks set to make a first repayment of 300 million euros to the IMF on June 5, but it’s still unclear how it will pay off the rest of its debt. The immediate concerns surrounding the looming debt deadline may have eased, diminishing part of gold’s safe-haven appeal, but it may not all be bad for Gold. If a deal is struck, its highly likely to see a resurgence in the Euro, driving US dollars lower and overall benefiting commodities. Last night’s upbeat German unemployment data and positive Greece talks saw the euro claw back 2.5% against the US dollar, its biggest gain in nearly 3 months.

    Looking at other precious metals, Platinum has been the worst performing metal in the sector, sliding 1.4% through May. Palladium didn’t fare much better dipping 0.6%, under-performing Gold, which gained 1.5% and Silver, up nearly 4% on the month. I can’t find sufficient reason for the under-performance by the PGM’s, so I’m buying Platinum, particularly at current levels around US$1100.

    By Adam Van Sambeek, Treasury Manager.

  10. #20
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    OMF Weekly Metal Report 9 June by Kevin Morgan. Overview, commentary and recommendations on gold, silver and copper metals.

    http://morrisandwatson.com/?p=5138


 

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