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  1. #1
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    Post Inside The Crucible (Precious Metals Updates)

    Hi all,

    I have access to some regular commentary and insights for precious metals. If there is interest, I can keep this thread up to date with these.

    Disclaimer: I may need to refer questions on to the author/s of the aforementioned resources.

    Kieran
    Last edited by kmor110; 12-03-2015 at 11:25 AM. Reason: proof-reading

  2. #2
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    Inside the Crucible by Adam Van Sambeek, Wednesday 11th March 2015.

    Last Friday's better than expected US jobs data was the catalyst to finally push gold out of its narrow trading range. Gold prices broke lower, triggering sell stops below $1180 support, as the upbeat data increased the likelihood the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the near term. Given that US rate rises and a strong dollar have been on the agenda a long time, I’m surprised by the extent of gold's reaction, especially as the downward spirals in many currencies could well create risks of their own.

    Some market observers looked to China to push gold prices back towards the key psychological level of $1,200, demand has so far been unimpressive, raising concerns that prices have further to fall. I’m imagining that this recent sharp drop in Gold is more technically driven rather than outright negative fundamentals. Although I too wouldn’t rush into Gold here as the charts look damaged, with a possibility we still test $1130. Call me a contrarian, but now seems the ideal time to obtain some low cost exposure to the upside. June Gold Call Options are my preferred method. Limit risk (premium) with unlimited upside potential.

    Not all is rosy out there, the US equities have tumbled in the last few days, while the market seems to have ignored news that the ECB has just rolled out a 60-billion euro-per month quantitative easing programme in a bid to prop up its ailing economy. Remember, a lot still depends on the Federal Reserve actually moving interest rates. A major fall in the share market may cause the Fed to hold off, while USD strength could keep inflation so low that the Fed waits even longer before they raise rates.

    http://morrisandwatson.com/blog/gold...a-good-option/

    Last edited by kmor110; 12-03-2015 at 02:38 PM. Reason: formatting

  3. #3
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    OMF Metals report by Kevin Morgan, Wednesday 11th March 2015.

    Summary and link to full report below:

    *Gold Hits Three Month Low *Silver Slumps, Eyes Major Support *Chinese Copper Imports Lowest Since 2011 *US Now on Daylight Savings Time

    Full Report: http://morrisandwatson.com/blog/omf-...port-11_03_15/
    Last edited by kmor110; 12-03-2015 at 03:05 PM. Reason: formatting

  4. #4
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    Inside the Crucible by Adam Van Sambeek Thursday 19th March.

    Apologies for the delay in our weekly report, but with so much riding on the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) report released this morning, it’s more beneficial to analyse its impact.

    Earlier this month a better than expected US jobs report fuelled speculation that the Fed would reveal a more hawkish stance in this morning’s announcement. In reality many were wrong footed by a subdued assessment of the US economy, leaving the market to rethink the timing of any increase in US interest rates. The FOMC noted that “economic growth has moderated somewhat” over the past month, which is a significant downgrade from the last statement wherein it said that activity rose “at a solid pace”. They also indicated that when interest rates do rise, they will likely rise at a slower rate than previously expected. Compared to expectations, this is a strongly dovish statement, resulting in a scrabble to cover and adjust positions.

    The most significant impact from the report was the sudden correction to the USD. The USD index (a basket of currencies against the US dollar) plummeting 5%, before settling 2.2% lower. Precious metals and commodities all benefiting, with Gold climbing back above US$1150 support to close near US$1170 (+1.6%), while Silver gained 2% to settle just shy of US$16 per ounce.

    Looking ahead, Gold still has plenty of headwinds, so I’m not getting overly excited unless we break and hold US$1180 resistance. As per last weeks suggestion, I do own Gold Call options, allowing me to benefit from any sustained Gold rally. With Platinum at US$1116, this is undervalued considering fundamentals, so I’m suggesting to hold and buy more with a view that we see a repositioning in the market which will carry Platinum to 1175-1180 resistance levels. (more on this next week)

    Link: http://morrisandwatson.com/blog/fomc...sd-correction/

  5. #5
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    When Tuesday blues strike remember that every cloud has a silver lining. Read the latest report by Kevin Morgan to find out OMF's recommendations.


    *Gold and Silver rebound on Federal Reserve *Try sell Gold at USD 1190 with a $15 stop OCO take profit at USD 1170 *Try sell silver at USD 17.05 stop at USD 17.50 take profit at SD 16.20


    LINK: http://morrisandwatson.com/blog/omf-...deral-reserve/

  6. #6
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    Gold backed up last week’s price gains, climbing back above our previously mentioned US$1180 resistance, reaching a 3 week high of 1195.30 overnight. Prices are on course to post their longest winning streak since January last year, with investors backing bullion over the past few days because of a slump in the dollar after the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on the US economy and diminishing likelihood of an early rate increase. The dollar remains the main driving factor of gold price and traders will be looking very closely towards (Fed officials') comments to gauge when and how rapid the rate hike will be.

    As manufacturers we've observed that, while bullion sales may have waned, weak prices have spurred an increased in demand of precious metal for manufacturing into jewellery, semi-finished and/or final products. This anecdotal observation has been supported by a recent report from New York-based CPM Group, forecasting an increase of over 4% in 2015 of fabricated Gold products. Marking the second straight annual rise, and feeding my optimism of higher Gold and Silver prices. Demand is still out there, just that we’re observing it in a different form.

    In last week’s report I pointed out an opportunity in Platinum, “at US$1116, this is undervalued considering fundamentals” and suggested that buying with “a view that we see a repositioning in the market which will carry Platinum to US$1175-1180 resistance levels.” Today’s platinum price now resides around US$1150, so we’re witnessing this correction unfold. If Gold continues its test of US$1200, then we should see our Platinum target met.

    By Adam Van Sambeek

    LINK: http://morrisandwatson.com/blog/why-...um-up-with-it/

  7. #7
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    It shouldn't have come as any surprise that following last week’s meteoric rise in Gold, involving the longest winning streak in over a year, we would witness some sort of correction. The pullback in gold picked up steam after Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen said late on Friday that an increase in the benchmark federal funds rate "may well be warranted later this year" given a sustained improvement in US economic conditions. This was enough to see Gold prices retreat back to $1180 support, having stumbled around the $1200 psychological resistance. Many may argue that last week’s rally is in fact the correction to a market in a strong downward trend. That may be the case, but more weight should be placed on Gold’s recent resilience and how convincing $1150 support has become.

    As stated many times before, USD is the main driving force for commodities, and in particular the increasingly public debate on when the Fed will raise interest rates. This has become highly speculative, with traders forecasting the Fed’s next move anytime data is released. Last night’s data was no exception, a weaker-than-expected ADP employment report followed by disappointing ISM Manufacturing data saw traders selling USD, with subsequent gains for commodities. This heightens volatility in an already uncertain market, making trading decisions increasingly difficult. Don’t expect any respite as we head into Easter, Employment and Non-Farm Payrolls are due tomorrow night, and in a holiday thinned market, expect volatility. (Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to show an increase of 245k with the Unemployment Rate holding at 5.5%. )

    I particularly like Bullion priced in NZD. Last night’s disappointing Global Dairy Trade auction saw the index fall 10%, while New Zealand Whole Milk Powder falls 13.3%. All this should put NZD under pressure, which is long overdue for exporters into Australia who've been suffering a near parity exchange rate of late. Happy Easter everyone.

    By Adam Van Sambeek

    LINK: http://morrisandwatson.com/blog/gold...driven-by-usd/

  8. #8
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    Gold consolidates just below the $1,200 per ounce with no fresh news or direction for traders to latch on to. Renewed dollar strength follows unclear FOMC minutes, which could’ve been interpreted anyway to suit your own view on the FED’s ultimate intentions. This is capping any sustained Gold rally. Gold failed to hold key 1205 support, after briefly climbing to 1224 just before Easter, returning to its high volume comfort zone of around 1200. Traditionally, precious metals now enter the seasonally-low period where physical demand historically declines. However, the yellow metal is showing resilience, with higher lows and higher highs, with the next few trading sessions crucial for bulls that we maintain above the 1190 level. Last night did see this level break, only to claw back losses, closing at $1193, after weaker than expected US retail sales and slump in small business confidence.

    Interestingly, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported that the Comex speculative traders increased their net-long positions in gold to 100,757 contracts, which marks a five week high, up from 80,019 a week earlier. A sustained build in price and an adjustment in current bearish sentiment, could rise the likelihood for further long accumulation and short-covering in the coming weeks. However this still poses risks, as this data proves the market remains highly speculative, and therefore vulnerable to price swings. Good news is we’ve already seen Crude oil prices recover 15% over the past month, leading a small commodity revival, as investors seek value in beaten up sectors. Will Gold and Silver follow suit?

    By Adam Van Sambeek, Treasury Manager.

    LINK: http://morrisandwatson.com/blog/will...ude-oils-suit/

  9. #9
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    Worth a watch from the 11min mark https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5CXTT_EYjA

    very bullish out esp Silver

    Disc-Holding 700oz Silver bullion, ASX Gold/Silver producers

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBM View Post
    Worth a watch from the 11min mark https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5CXTT_EYjA

    very bullish out esp Silver

    Disc-Holding 700oz Silver bullion, ASX Gold/Silver producers
    Hey JBM, it's an interesting point of view. What is stopping Japan from re-valuing gold? Or any other country for that matter?


 

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