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  • Holding Property Long Term Sux

    Hi Guys

    Just to enliven PT up a bit came across this statement from another forum. Please feel free to pull it to bits or agree with it.

    "I've studied buy-and-hold investment models for fifteen years. The mathematics of them are inherently flawed. Over time you can't make money faster than inflation or the percentage increase in population even if you pick the best area and the best property and both of those are difficult to do.

    Do the math on any investment property over a ten, twenty, thirty, fifty year or whatever period and you come to the same conclusion.

    Use some common sense. On a real estate investment, it is quite easy to make 30% in the first year after a quick rehab or improvement. Do you think you can make 30% year after year on the same property? When do you think your yield gravitates towards the median gain of all other similarly situated properties? It has to, it is unavoidable.

    How do you earn spectacular gains holding property decade after decade? You can't. All income properties will all appreciate at the same rate in a given area. The only way to earn high yields with rentals is to IMPROVE THEM and build equity yourself. Otherwise you are counting on marketwide appreciation and increases in rental income to make you money and how fast do you think that will compound? ONLY AS FAST AS OTHER SIMILARLY SITUATED PROPERTIES or in other words, at the market rates.

    Again, use some more common sense. The longer you own a property, the higher your maintenance and repair costs. As a building gets older, it needs more work. It wears out and the owner needs to fix things to keep attracting tenants and maintain the current rental income. Which property is going to appreciate at a higher rate? The new property with a lower expense ratio for the owner or an older property with a higher expense ratio? Every dollar in added expense per month per unit using a cap rate of ten is $120 in lost equity PER YEAR.

    It doesn't matter how you look at this question. You can use theoretical mathematical models. You can use empirical statistical studies. You can just use plain common sense. The bottom line is you can make more money faster, with less risk, and earn higher yields buying properties, quickly improving them to add value, and selling them to pyramid your equity than buying a property and holding it for years or decades for market appreciation and gradual increases in rental income."

    There it is, in it's entirety.
    Kieran Trass I would love you to comment on it in regards to the Auckland market please.

    Regards
    "There's one way to find out if a man is honest-ask him. If he says 'yes,' you know he is a crook." Groucho Marx

  • #2
    Hi,

    Yes, without any input a property will appreciate at the same rate as the rest of the market - the point with "buy and hold" is that the property market is better than most.

    I'm pretty sure Kieran or someone will kill the 'you can do no better than inflation or the population growth' statement with some well presented stats.

    Leverage - your property may only grow at, say 5%, but 5% of $200K is $10K, which is a decent return on your $40K deposit.

    And we haven't even started on cashflow and tax advantages yet......

    Happy holding

    cube
    DFTBA

    Comment


    • #3
      Leverage - your property may only grow at, say 5%, but 5% of $200K is $10K, which is a decent return on your $40K deposit.
      Very true Cube.
      It can get even better if you try, $0.00 Deposit and making $40k or more at time of purchase on a property that has more than enough income to cover costs in a good growth area.
      Try punching those figures into a calculator.

      Mind you. The "renovator" could arguably find the same deals using the same finance methods and then renovate for even more potential growth. They would however be exposing themselves Capital Gains Tax that we as long-term property investors in NZ are exempt from. This would taint them for all further property transactions giving them a whole different set of rules to have to abide by.

      Also, in order to continue recieving income they must continue to find "do up houses" and have them sell, regardless of market climate. When it comes time to retire they would still need to be active in the buy, renovate, sell, (& pay tax) scene which could be time (and effort) consuming.

      I personally like the idea of having an income stream regardless of whether I choose to work in the next 12 mths or not.

      Regards,
      Marcus.

      Comment


      • #4
        One major point that is not touched on is the ability to use OPM and also equity in your properties to finance further ventures (including buying do-ups to sell at a profit)

        If all of these profits were combined the return would far exceed inflation.

        Comment


        • #5
          If you hold onto the house long enough, the mortgage will be gone (unless you refinance it of course) but the income keeps on rolling it. If you refinance it, then you have a second property and twice the income and so on and so on...

          Although, if you sell them every now and then (maybe every 5 to 10 years), you can purchase a new property in its place and get a whole heap of new depreciation. The disadvantage is any depreciation write back that might occur.

          The article seems to be looking mainly at capital gains, and it is probably correct if capital gains is all you are interested in.

          Comment


          • #6
            Property traders versus property holders Mmmm,

            Reminds me of the tortoise versus the hare story...

            I think the author has some valid points but has conveniently missed some detail.

            YES traders can SOMETIMES make more money quicker than holders BUT:

            1) Tax - traders pay Capital Gains tax and don't get the benefit of ongoing tax breaks that holders get.
            2) Cashflow - Cashflow is king! Traders only get cashflow when they sell, holders have a stream of cashflow.
            3) Risk - I disagree that traders have less risk. Traders have much more risk because they are reliant on selling to realise cash. Traders usually get caught out by the property cycle because its easy to make money by trading in a rising market but not when the slump bites even with renovations! Just ask any banker who has more risk the trader or holder... Remember all developers are traders - and most of them hit the wall at some stage in their career. A few make it big but not many.

            The most successful investors I have met have a strong buy and hold preference. That doesn't mean they don't sell any property but just that most of their properties are buy and holds.

            Last week I dealt with a vendor who had a block of flats in central Auckland now worth over $3Million. They bought the block in 1976 for $175,000. In case you are wondering thats over a 10% capital gain p.a. compounding year on year for 27 years assuming they paid cash which they didn't. The flats now earn over $170,000 p.a. in rents!
            The author would have us believe these people should have renovated and flicked these flats in 1976... I guess they may have been able to make $30M by trading for the last 27 years but then again they may not have...

            Trading is a treadmill that is difficult to get off (without falling off) and as I often say "Property investment is a marathon...not a sprint"

            I'm off for a well deserved break so will be back next year.

            Merry Christmas
            Kieran Trass

            Comment


            • #7
              Hi Kieran

              Thanks for your input.

              Have a Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year and a well deserved break.

              Regards
              "There's one way to find out if a man is honest-ask him. If he says 'yes,' you know he is a crook." Groucho Marx

              Comment


              • #8
                I was able to borrow around $700,000 in order to buy a company because I had an asset base of IPs worth Just over 1 Million.

                I bought them with only $30,000 of my own money ( in total) using equity and the fact that I bought them all well below market value in order to buy more.

                Their total value plus the rental income enabled us to get the loan.
                If I had onsold them I doubt we would have got the loan based on cold cash alone.

                Now we have a merged company worth 4 Million and still own the IPs you do the math

                Comment


                • #9
                  I agree with all of you. For my 10 cents worth, there are also the costs of selling that need to be considered, as they reduce the effective return.

                  If you are just starting out, however, you may not have sufficient equity to enable holding on to a property while buying further "do-up's". In this situation you may be better off selling to move onto your next project and develop a better capital base.

                  But as long as you can hold onto the property you must be better off doing so. You don't need to sell a property to make use of the increased equity.

                  Merry Christmas everyone.
                  Andrew King,
                  Too many tenants in your property? Hire a sleepout from Cabin King and increase the rent
                  NZ Property Investors' Federation

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Hi Andrew,

                    Welcome to the forum, although I suspect you have been lurking for some time!!

                    Happy Christmas

                    cube
                    DFTBA

                    Comment

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