Dannemora/Flat Bush and Upcoming Otara?

[Invader_X]

Hey guys what are your thoughts on house prices continuing to increase in Dannemora and Flatbush with Otara as an upcoming suburb?

I'm looking at this from a long term perspective.

When it comes to property, is it worth waiting for recessions before going in? I have a feeling the OCR is going to go up again.

[PTILoveYou]

As long as HNZ stays, old part of Flatbush and Otara don't have a future.

http://i853.photobucket.com/albums/ab99/biralo/Capture_zps1d913f7d.png

Home owners drive up house prices.

When you have HNZ occupying 50% or more of houses in an area, not many houses would be for sale.

Then you would say supply would be low, so that must be good for prices!

But if you are a home owner, and if you know there are lots of HNZ in the area, and the local school would not be very good (most novice parents believe better Decile = better school). So why would they want to buy a home in this area??

[elguapo]

with Otara as an upcoming suburb?

Otara is the new Ponsonby.

[Damap]

Otara is the new Huntly. Since adding the new off ramps so you can avoid it completely and most people will........

[donthatetheplayer]

Love those hnz maps Gary. Have you got one of New Lynn and Glen Eden?

Not sure about those suburbs Invader. You might be waiting a while. Same with waiting for a recession. Timing the market is a hard game to play. Buy when you can.

[PTILoveYou]

Love those hnz maps Gary. Have you got one of New Lynn and Glen Eden?

Not sure about those suburbs Invader. You might be waiting a while. Same with waiting for a recession. Timing the market is a hard game to play. Buy when you can.

http://i853.photobucket.com/albums/ab99/biralo/Capture_zps4b14c877.png

[AMR]

There's a good* part of Otara and a bad part of Otara (*relatively speaking).

The good parts of Otara have had very good price rises in the last few years. These would be Franklyne Road / Alexander Cres and surrounding (the north-west side of MIT), the part of Otara closer to Flat Bush / Clover Park (Dawson Road, further east the better), and the East Tamaki area (Johnstone Road / Antrim Cres / Tyrone Cres and around there). I've owned in Otara for the last two years and initially had some tenancy troubles but these have long been sorted. My current tenant is pretty good, has a job and hasn't missed a single rent payment in the last year. This part of town is still significantly cheaper than Papatoetoe and Otahuhu nearby.

Gary's map pretty much sums up what I think is the bad part of Otara. My general rule would be no duplex-type / townhouse-type state houses and no pylons / motorways / noisy roads. Single level state houses I would be ok with. This covers most of the old 'Narcotics Triangle' between East Tamaki Road, Preston Road, and SH1.

Investing wise at the moment, I would back Otara over Manurewa in terms of gentrification. Re-development is happening pretty quickly from the Flat Bush end.

[donthatetheplayer]

Thanks Gary. Love your work. What is the date these were recorded at? I notice some HNZ properties aren't included. I wonder how many others aren't on there.

[donthatetheplayer]

Anecdotally, I have friends that bought in Manurewa recently and they suggest it's gentrifying with good young families buying into the area. Location wise Otara looks better on a map.

I've always thought Otahuhu is in a great location and will have to be a popular spot eventually - as long as sea level don't rise too much..

[PTILoveYou]

Thanks Gary. Love your work. What is the date these were recorded at?

Councils like to keep their records up to date, so I would say it's pretty current.

Thanks Gary. Love your work. What is the date these were recorded at? I notice some HNZ properties aren't included. I wonder how many others aren't on there.

Are you sure? Have you checked that against RPNZ or PropertyGuru??

Btw the map will not show private properties leased to HNZ.

[donthatetheplayer]

Maybe it doesn't include cross-leases where HNZ only owns part of the cross-lease?

[PTILoveYou]

Maybe it doesn't include cross-leases where HNZ only owns part of the cross-lease?

Well HNZ does have a few entities to hold their properties under, so I'm not sure if they are all included, but I like to think majority 95% are on the council system.

[Invader_X]

So in terms of Flat Bush/Dannemora area, will houses there eventually flat line?

Parents bought a house there back in 2001 when botany town centre was only a Pak N Save and warehouse. The house was around 200k and now they have buyers for 900k.

of course you have to take into account inflation, rise in wages etc but I have two choices:

1) Go into a shared investment with parents into a dannemora/flat bush 3 - 4 bedroom home and have tenants.

2) Or buy around Otara.

What would be a better investment?

I'm mostly after long term. Still starting out in life and don't have much cash to throw around trading yet.

[PTILoveYou]

I would personally borrow the deposit from the parents for a short set period of time, then buy in Papatoetoe or east Manurewa.

[Glizzle]

In the long term your have to be a brave man to bet on any parts of south Auckland on the west of the Motorway to outpace the East.