I really dont like this type of estimate as I believe that better established areas closer to the harbour will increase more than the southern suburbs. Why? because there is less land and more demand for better suburbs for those with aspirations.
Announcement
Collapse
No announcement yet.
Capital Growth Auckland Next Ten Years
Collapse
X
-
Originally posted by Re@der View PostI really dont like this type of estimate as I believe that better established areas closer to the harbour will increase more than the southern suburbs. Why? because there is less land and more demand for better suburbs for those with aspirations.
Comment
-
Originally posted by elliot View Posteveryone says Auckland will have the best long term capital gain long term. My accountant says sell my rentals and buy 1 investment property in auckland. Where would one start looking in Auckland or where would you not look, ideas appreciated.
Auckland may have a higher capital gain but you most likely see a lower rental return so it kind of cancels it self out.
Plus if you are investing out of town you are going to have higher costs ie property management, maintenance, travel etc.
Comment
-
Harvey
No hard numbers. Just directionaly seems right. Although if you could pick the next Ponsonby then that would be really worth it. It is this suburb by suburb analysis that Kieren Trass speciallises in. He may have some numbers on it. Olly Newland also says to go for the leafy suburbs during the slumps or early in the cycle to get the growth. I assume that these leafy suburbs are the equivalent of the inner residential suburbs. Another benefit as well as growth is better tenants who are easier to manage,Doug
Comment
-
Originally posted by Harvey View PostWe have had 700 views but only 8 votes.
I'm personally "in the dark" about where prices in general will be in 10 years. The worlds economy seems to be unravelling around us and I'm as clueless as the next (honest/sane) person as to when things will change for the better. Anyone that believes that they possess a working crystal ball could run seminars with Tinkerbelle and Alice in Wonderland. I don't however like their chances of making such a "killing" in the current climate though...
Comment
-
Originally posted by Tan View PostIs your accountant a successful property investor?Where are your properties now?
Comment
-
Cube surely you have to be regional in your analysis? Land supply, migration trends, job markets, etc. I would agree Auckland will get 7%, but the rest of the country ranges from well done to overcooked. Net yields are terrible in small towns and their population poor and declining. (grossly generalizing)
PS just noticed this thread is About Auckland.
Comment
-
I have a worrying theory for house prices in Auckland, or anywhere in the next 10 years, requiring new builds, so anything where we will need to build a lot of houses, so I guess christchurch fits into that equation.
As eventually the value of existing housing is pulled up by the cost to build from scratch, of course if there isnt demand to build then this effect doesnt apply.
The cost to build new, in my view, is sky rocketing into infinity and beyond.
And there are many factors.
The cost of land, the land development costs at council, the cost to put in or upgrade services on the site, the cost to upgrade services to the site required by council, the rising cost of materials to build, the newer building compliance regulations to build, the silly things council require you to put in on your site, the silly reports council require you to have done.
Then you have the cost to actually build the basic house, which in the scheme of things could be the smallest cost of all.
At the end of that you have maybe a stock standard 4 beddie plus double garage for about 750k in an not so bad area ???
I dont think people are quite aware of the new build cost taking into account the full development cost to put it there with for sale sign.
It will probably take a short supply and rise in prices to create a demand for developers to meet.
That short supply and demand, once GFC eases, once the NZ economy gets into gear, once Auckland gets a move on, and new housing is required.
Say 2013 / 2015, then you could see 10 to 15% rises.
For now, I am thinking stable to 4%.
Unless its an inner city in demand area like say Epsom, where the short supply is reacting now.
Comment
Comment