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  1. #1
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    Default 'Tsunami' to hit Australian real estate, US forecaster predicts

    'Tsunami' to hit Australian real estate, US forecaster predicts

    From: AAP
    September 11, 2011 5:26PM

    AUSTRALIA'S love affair with property is about to turn sour as an "economic tsunami'' looks set to hit world markets, American economic forecaster Harry Dent says.

    Mr Dent, who arrived in Australia today, predicts the world will experience a second, deeper downturn, which will arrive between the beginning and the middle of next year.

    Starting in Europe, the downturn will spread to the US, China and eventually Australia, he said.

    "Australia is probably the best place in the world to survive this, but we do think Australia will not escape as well as it did from the last crisis (in 200,'' Mr Dent said.

    At the centre of the coming debt crisis is real estate, the forecaster says.

    "People in places like Sydney or Tokyo or Miami say, 'Hey, real estate can never go down here, we're a great place, everyone wants to move here, there's not much land for development', and what I say is that is exactly the kind of place that bubbles,'' Mr Dent said.

    "Outside Hong Kong and Shanghai, Australia is the most expensive real estate market in the world compared to income.''

    Mr Dent said Australia's house prices would return to late 1990s or early 2000 levels.

    Driving all these changes is simple demographics, specifically the peak of the baby boomers' spending, Mr Dent said.

    "We predicted this (current) downturn in the US 20 years ago,'' he said.

    "We said that in 2007 the peak number of baby boomers will reach their peak spending. They would have bought all their homes and then they will start saving for retirement ... and that you are going to see this downturn.''

    The drop-off in spending will affect everyone, even mighty China, Mr Dent said.

    To survive the incoming "economic tsunami'', Mr Dent said investors should sell their excess real estate and buy up assets in US dollars.

    "Gold and silver are going to crash, they're a bubble,'' he said.

    "Once we write down all these crazy debts, we are going to destroy a lot of dollars that were created in the boom and that makes the (US) dollar a lot more valuable.''

    Mr Dent is in Australia to promote his book, The Great Crash Ahead - How to Prosper in the Debt Crisis of 2010-2012, and will be speaking at the Secure the Future conference in Sydney and Brisbane in October.

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/life/h...-1226134204439
    "There's one way to find out if a man is honest-ask him. If he says 'yes,' you know he is a crook." Groucho Marx

  2. #2
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    Default

    A worse depression than the last one will cause gold and silver to crash... I don't think so!

  3. #3

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    Authors like to make extreme predictions to sell books. That been said, I hope he is wrong, as NZ prices would follow a similar trend to Australian prices if he is right.

  4. #4
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    Default

    Others predict gold to go as high as $5K an once as more flee from stocks and the currencies tumble.
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  5. #5

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    Old Glory will recover eventually, too many of us to turn the lights out.

  6. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by twoandcounting View Post
    NZ prices would follow a similar trend to Australian prices if he is right.
    Maybe only in Auckland and that could do with a correction, the rest of the country is far from bubble

  7. #7

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    USA prices still dropping, alot of Clients are from Australia as there prices continue to rise...so eventually it has to crash the question is when?

    Alex

  8. #8
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    New-home sales headed for record low in 2011

    Sales inched up slightly in October, but it looks as if annual sales will be even lower than last year's tally, which was the smallest number sold in nearly 50 years.

    By Teresa at MSN Real Estate Nov 28, 2011 12:11PM



    The number of new homes sold inched up slightly in October, but builders aren't throwing any parties.

    2011 is shaping up to be the worst year for the sale of new homes since the Commerce Department began keeping records in 1963, with sales below even last year's record low.
    "It looks like 2011 will be another year the homebuilders would like to forget," Michael Larson, a housing analyst at Weiss Research in Jupiter, Fla., told Bloomberg. "Sales remain depressed, lending standards are tight, and pressure on pricing remains due to an ongoing influx of distressed used homes."


    Builders sold 1.3% more new single-family homes in October than they did in September. This October's sales were 8.9% above the number of sales in October 2010.


    The rate of sales for October would yield total nationwide sales of 307,000 for the year. That's considerably fewer than the 323,000 homes sold last year, the lowest number in nearly 50 years and less than half the number sold in a healthy market.

    More at
    http://realestate.msn.com/blogs/list...1-5be347177e6f
    "There's one way to find out if a man is honest-ask him. If he says 'yes,' you know he is a crook." Groucho Marx

  9. #9

    Default

    New homes mean nothing in today's real estate market. Investors are buying foreclosures. Look at Most major market new homes yes down , foreclosure sales up. Common senses new homes , really don't give true measure on what the market is doing..


    just my two cents

    Alex

  10. #10

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    Yep... I think if this will go down it will mean a very bad weather for the market. Everyone will be doing it's share as to not to let this happen.
    Market is going for the better and will still be going...


 

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