Another Prediction!

[Dean@Massiveaction]

True Donna, you should see how they are treating Obama over exactly this!

[ENP]

Why does it really matter what you all think? How many of you predicted the property boom in early 2000's 2-3 years before it happened? Which of you predicted the GFC problems 2-3 years before those happened?

Even "experts" can't get it right.

[Perry]

As a rough rule-of-thumb, take what most
experts say and do/expect the reverse.

An old saw goes:

The invincible ignorance of experts
arises because they think they think;
Therefore they'll never know that
they don't know.

[eri]

can i toss this in then?

the brain is the organ which with we think

we think.....

[donna]

Here's an interesting book:

"Wrong" Why experts keep failing us and how to know when not to trust them by David H Freedman.

It says sharing ideas in forums and blogs is better than listening to 'Experts' - Yay!

Cheers,

Donna

[Davo36]

Why does it really matter what you all think? How many of you predicted the property boom in early 2000's 2-3 years before it happened? Which of you predicted the GFC problems 2-3 years before those happened?

Even "experts" can't get it right.

Shrewdly put ENP.

I've given up forecasting, especially about the future.

[fudosan]

Just listened to replay of several past interviews with US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke re economy. He's dead wrong in all forecasts regarding the housing bubble, subprime crisis, ...

[Bob Kane]

Why does it really matter what you all think? How many of you predicted the property boom in early 2000's 2-3 years before it happened?

Kieran Trass did and we didn't have PropertyTalk to share the info.
Bit of a shame, aye?

Which of you predicted the GFC problems 2-3 years before those happened?

We did have PropertyTalk by then and it was widely discussed before it happened. Gatekeeper was onto it at an early stage.

Even "experts" can't get it right.

But if you listen to other points of view then you can make better decisions than if you only had your own point of view.

[watchful]

Kieran Trass did and we didn't have PropertyTalk to share the info.
Bit of a shame, aye?

Evidence please?

[muppet]

From http://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article...-for-2011.html

OCR predictions for 2011

The official cash rate (OCR) is predicted to increase by 25 basis points in June to 3.25% with only two further increases by the end of 2011 according to a www.mortgagerates.co.nz survey of economists.

Wednesday, December 22nd 2010, 7:26AM

by Jenha White
Opinion is split on the second increase, with ASB and Westpac expecting the OCR to rise to 3.50% in September, whereas ANZ and BNZ believe the second increase will be more significant with 50 basis points making it 3.75%.
December 2011 projections are more widely divided with ASB and Westpac expecting the OCR to end the year at 3.75%, ANZ expecting 4.00% and BNZ 4.25%.
BNZ economist Tony Alexander says in the Weekly Overview that the economy is growing but not by all that much.
He says the level of disappointment has been so great that after raising the official cash rate by 50 basis points over June and July earlier this year the Reserve Bank called a halt and now suggest they won't be raising it again until the June quarter of next year.
"It is very unusual to have such an interruption in a tightening cycle but these are very unusual times which we are living through and sure as eggs are eggs unusual things will happen again next year."
He says that for the moment floating still looks good and is great for all those people wanting to get their debt levels down as quickly as possible. But at some stage it will pay to flick into a fixed rate.
He says overall BNZ's expectation is that the economy will be seen as finishing this year on a weakish note, starting next year also weak, but accelerating as the year progresses driven by a variety of factors eventually taking growth to 3.6% for the calendar year.
He predicts factors driving growth will be:

• Rebuilding Christchurch following the earthquake.
• Rugby World Cup.
• Record average commodity price feed-through.
• House construction lift late in the year in response to shortage worries growing.
• Business capital spending slowly improving as a productivity focus returns in light of a labour market potentially tightening up rapidly.
• Low NZD/AUD exchange rate.

But says there will be offsets from things like the following.

• Tightening fiscal policy
• Drought
• Structural debt tolerance shift of unknown magnitude.
• Tightening monetary policy from mid-year probably.
• Easing net migration inflows.
• Potential shocks from offshore.
• High fuel prices.

[Choc]

But if you listen to other points of view then you can make better decisions than if you only had your own point of view.

So very true!

[67910241]

You have some very good points there Steve. One reason for if you are sitting on cash you don't let it burn a hole. If you can't find a reasonable deal just sit in a PIE.

Cash is rather good when unsure what to do, but I found the precious metals to be just marvelous performing in 2010. Way better than any bank interest let alone property, and definitely leaves one more in control than the stock market. Am still extending my position although a bit more slowly. Not sure how 2011 will work out though. An Asian driven double dip might kill even gold / silver, and it would positively destroy everything else but the treasury bonds.

Hey but with the way the deficits are going maybe even the bonds get obliterated at some stage!

[fudosan]

I've been tracking gold and silver since 2008. Silver crashed to below $10 in 2008. Once it broke through $20 in Sep this year, the rise has been spectacular.

Maybe a pull back and then followed by a rise above $30?

[67910241]

Silver crashed to below $10 in 2008. Once it broke through $20 in Sep this year, the rise has been spectacular.

Maybe a pull back and then followed by a rise above $30?

You mean, JP Morgan crashed it below $10 in 2008? Wish I bought all the way back then eh!

[donna]

Markets back to same level pre. Lehman Bros - so just a couple of years to bounce back - not a bad effort and growth expected....umm so CNN reported a couple of hours ago.

Cheers,

Donna