Originally posted by OnTheMove
View Post
Announcement
Collapse
No announcement yet.
Another Prediction!
Collapse
X
-
-
20 year property price predictions from OneRoof.co.nz
The average price of a house in Auckland could rise to almost $3 million by 2040 - more than three times what it is now - according to new forecast data from OneRoof.
The figures suggest Wairoa in Hawke's Bay will be the cheapest place to buy property in 20 years' time, with house prices there expected to rise to a still affordable $353,309.
The most expensive to buy will still likely be Queenstown - but buyers there may have to stump up $4.79 million for a home, as opposed to about $1 million now.
The figures come as one of New Zealand's leading agents told OneRoof that he expects Auckland to be be home to $20 million suburbs by 2040.
OneRoof looked at the change in the median sale price for every territorial authority in New Zealand between 1999 and 2019 and applied the same percentage increase to current house prices. The exercise was to see what the prices would look like if the market surge of the last 20 years repeated itself over the next two decades.
According to the data, Wellington's median sale price would hit $2.37 million - $1.62 million above what it is now - while Christchurch would rise to $1.25 million - an increase of $811,000 on the current median sale price.
The data shows other big leaps: Dunedin, currently the most affordable major metro, could see its median sale price hit $1.97 million if it carries on its current trajectory, ahead of Hamilton, which could have a median sale price of $1.91 million. The boom in Whanganui could bring about a median sale price of $1 million by 2040.
The forecast data indicates there will be just eight territorial authorities with a median sale price of less than $1 million - Wairoa ($353,309); Grey ($572,727); Buller ($654,545); South Taranaki ($720,000); Waitomo ($800,333); Tararua ($881,667); Westland ($957,586); Ruapehu ($972,426); and Gore ($993,103). Forty regions will have a median sale price of between $1 million and $2 million, 15 will have a median sale price of between $2 million and $3 million. The most expensive authorities will be Otago ($3.17 million) and Queenstown.
OneRoof commentator and former Property Institute of New Zealand CEO Ashley Church says that secret to understanding the future of the property market is to understand its past. “Over the past 40 years we’ve seen house prices, in most of New Zealand, increase by between 70 percent and 100 percent or more, every decade – and there’s no reason to believe that that pattern will change."
Source: https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/average-house-price-in-auckland-could-hit-3m-by-2040-37028
Last edited by Chris W; 04-12-2019, 12:18 PM.
Comment
-
Originally posted by Wayne View PostGreat misuse of stats.
It's a big assumption that a change caused by a quantum shift ininterest rates will repeat in the next 20 years.
As for that is the reason the Bubble will never bust. IMO regardless of banks doing all they can, if lending from credit unuions etc have any volatility this will be passed on to our RBNZ and we WILL see interest rate rises. I think some people are just optimistic regardless of what is a ticking time bomb not a fizzer. Its not if, its when imo. If others disagree, so be it. But as for that oneroof quote, yeah nah. If so everybody will be leaving for Australia to have a chance at affordability and leave all the investors without tenants and 150% debt to GDP and a GDP that is looking flaky now with certain industries possibly turning sour (meow)
Comment
-
FYI from Matt Gilligan
Property prediction for 2020
Generally the biggest short-term determinant of property demand is interest rates and availability of credit (debt servicing and LVR testing rates). And in the second half of 2019, rates have plummeted 33% in NZ, and the testing rates have also softened in borrowers’ favour. All things being equal, property prices should go up, despite cyclically being overdue for, shall I say, a continued correction in NZ. So that’s my view, which changed in the second half of 2019 as rates fell aggressively. Investor confidence has returned, and demand for residential investment and home ownership is surging.
Comment
-
Originally posted by Perry View PostIn the context of the previous post (and many others hereabouts), does anyone have a finite definition of the expression: "correction?"
We're still waiting for it to happen....
It's a stupid term used by those who want to see others suffer.
Comment
-
'a 10% or more price decline that usually follows a temporary rise' - is one definition I found for 'correction' and it relates to shares, property etc.
cheers,
DonnaEmail Sign Up - New Discussions, Monthly Newsletter, About PropertyTalk
BusinessBlogs - the best business articles are found here
Comment
-
Originally posted by RBNZ on 24 Nov 2013The Reserve Bank predicts floating mortgage rates will rise to 7 or 8 per cent over the next two or three years and says buyers who entered the market in recent years with small deposits will be disproportionately affected.Originally posted by Perry View PostYet another year that wasn't replete with predictions coming true.
Comment
-
Originally posted by Wayne View PostGreat misuse of stats.
It's a big assumption that a change caused by a quantum shift ininterest rates will repeat in the next 20 years.
Unless overconfident Property mad kiwis get the lending for free 0% rates etc + local lenders are happy to leverage kiwis even higher how could anyone service an average house in Auckland at $3 million by 2040...... 20yrs from now .... I've been doing the same Fishing= exporting job for the last 20yrs and my wages have increased by 25-30% (living costs have increased by more !!)
At 3mill purchase price 20% (dep = $600k) LOW fixed rates- 1% 30yr fixed term loan(maybe we will go the way of the US) the buyer would still need= $1781 in weekly repayments (thats $92K pa)
Now what kind of household income are average kiwis going to be bringing in to pay those costs along with ongoing inflation in living costs... what is average kiwis incomes going to be $200K pa ?....
Overconfidence and the Bank of Japan's loose monetary policy in the mid-to-late 1980s led to aggressive speculation in domestic stocks and real estate, pushing the prices of these assets to previously unimaginable levels... (Its been done before to a Country with a much stronger economy)
Comment
Comment