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  1. #131
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    Someone was telling me, that 3.99% for 2 years was on offer from somewhere. Jees!
    Almost back to the 3% of the old State Advances Corporation. (Fixed for the full term, too!)
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  2. #132
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    Seems Adrian Orr is no respecter of predictors past, either.
    Quote Originally Posted by Perry View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by RBNZ on 24 Nov 2013
    The Reserve Bank predicts floating mortgage rates will rise to 7 or 8 per cent over the next two or three years and says buyers who entered the market in recent years with small deposits will be disproportionately affected.
    Yet another year later and all that can be said in relation to interest rates and that prediction is, well, WOW!
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  3. #133
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    Apr 2018
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    Quote Originally Posted by Perry View Post
    Seems Adrian Orr is no respecter of predictors past, either.


    Yet another year later and all that can be said in relation to interest rates and that prediction is, well, WOW!
    Clearly no NZ government has the balls to raise rates and improve our median income to price index. So what will fix it? The only one outside a NZ economy downturn due to lack of interest in Dairy, would be a dive in the US as usual, China is stagnant.

  4. #134
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    Quote Originally Posted by OnTheMove View Post
    Clearly no NZ government has the balls to raise rates . . .
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but, to the best of my knowledge, the gummint does not have that power / option readily available, pursuant to statute.
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  5. #135
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    Apr 2018
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    Quote Originally Posted by Perry View Post
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but, to the best of my knowledge, the gummint does not have that power / option readily available, pursuant to statute.
    Im meaning indirectly.

    Id rather get back to a nice steady 9% PA like pre 2000 than have a 20 year flat market. Rip the band aid somebody, please.

  6. #136
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    Sep 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by OnTheMove View Post
    Im meaning indirectly.

    Id rather get back to a nice steady 9% PA like pre 2000 than have a 20 year flat market. Rip the band aid somebody, please.
    Mate, the RBNZ, government and every other central bank and government around the world are doing everything in their power to not let that happen.
    Squadly dinky do!

  7. #137
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    May 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Davo36 View Post
    Mate, the RBNZ, government and every other central bank and government around the world are doing everything in their power to not let that happen.
    And that, my friend, is why we'll never have a property crash.

  8. #138
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
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    20 year property price predictions from OneRoof.co.nz

    The average price of a house in Auckland could rise to almost $3 million by 2040 - more than three times what it is now - according to new forecast data from OneRoof.
    The figures suggest Wairoa in Hawke's Bay will be the cheapest place to buy property in 20 years' time, with house prices there expected to rise to a still affordable $353,309.
    The most expensive to buy will still likely be Queenstown - but buyers there may have to stump up $4.79 million for a home, as opposed to about $1 million now.

    The figures come as one of New Zealand's leading agents told OneRoof that he expects Auckland to be be home to $20 million suburbs by 2040.

    OneRoof looked at the change in the median sale price for every territorial authority in New Zealand between 1999 and 2019 and applied the same percentage increase to current house prices. The exercise was to see what the prices would look like if the market surge of the last 20 years repeated itself over the next two decades.
    According to the data, Wellington's median sale price would hit $2.37 million - $1.62 million above what it is now - while Christchurch would rise to $1.25 million - an increase of $811,000 on the current median sale price.

    The data shows other big leaps: Dunedin, currently the most affordable major metro, could see its median sale price hit $1.97 million if it carries on its current trajectory, ahead of Hamilton, which could have a median sale price of $1.91 million. The boom in Whanganui could bring about a median sale price of $1 million by 2040.

    The forecast data indicates there will be just eight territorial authorities with a median sale price of less than $1 million - Wairoa ($353,309); Grey ($572,727); Buller ($654,545); South Taranaki ($720,000); Waitomo ($800,333); Tararua ($881,667); Westland ($957,586); Ruapehu ($972,426); and Gore ($993,103). Forty regions will have a median sale price of between $1 million and $2 million, 15 will have a median sale price of between $2 million and $3 million. The most expensive authorities will be Otago ($3.17 million) and Queenstown.

    OneRoof commentator and former Property Institute of New Zealand CEO Ashley Church says that secret to understanding the future of the property market is to understand its past. “Over the past 40 years we’ve seen house prices, in most of New Zealand, increase by between 70 percent and 100 percent or more, every decade – and there’s no reason to believe that that pattern will change."



    Source: https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/average-house-price-in-auckland-could-hit-3m-by-2040-37028
    Last edited by Chris W; 04-12-2019 at 12:18 PM.

  9. #139
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    Great misuse of stats.
    It's a big assumption that a change caused by a quantum shift ininterest rates will repeat in the next 20 years.

  10. #140
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    Apr 2018
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wayne View Post
    Great misuse of stats.
    It's a big assumption that a change caused by a quantum shift ininterest rates will repeat in the next 20 years.
    Lol bang on mate. That and the old 9% PA doubling housing is not the problem. The problem is median housing doubling in 3 years, ie Wellington. Volatility. Will we have an up and down market to even out over every 10 years or will we see a crash that puts us back to the 9% PA gains that made buying and selling proiftble in all forms of property investment.

    As for that is the reason the Bubble will never bust. IMO regardless of banks doing all they can, if lending from credit unuions etc have any volatility this will be passed on to our RBNZ and we WILL see interest rate rises. I think some people are just optimistic regardless of what is a ticking time bomb not a fizzer. Its not if, its when imo. If others disagree, so be it. But as for that oneroof quote, yeah nah. If so everybody will be leaving for Australia to have a chance at affordability and leave all the investors without tenants and 150% debt to GDP and a GDP that is looking flaky now with certain industries possibly turning sour (meow)


 

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