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  1. #1
    Join Date
    May 2008
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    3,558

    Default Who's Tony referring to?

    From Tony's BNZ Weekly Overview (8 July 2010):
    http://www.bnz.co.nz/binaries/w080710.pdf

    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Alexander
    There are those who forecast seemingly gleefully that the biggest global economic downturn since
    1946 and biggest financial crisis since the 1930s (overseas) would push the NZ unemployment rate
    to 14%, collapse house prices by 40%, and cause many other very bad things. These forecasters
    tended to be either left-wing, Muldoonist interventionists,
    Bernard Hickey?
    ... or people who liked or needed publicity in order to get either clicks on their websites or punters buying their various products.
    ??? Ollie, Kieran ??

    They may or may not now feel embarrassed about how bad their forecasts were but the point is they see an
    opportunity to restore some credibility by claiming they were merely mistaken in terms of timing and
    their forecast bad outcomes may still happen though in smaller versions.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Auckland
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    8,305

    Default

    All of the above I would say.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
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    Auckland
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    3,936

    Default

    reference to all 3 I think

  4. #4
    Join Date
    May 2008
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    Torbay, Auckland
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    Default

    I note that Westpac dont have such a rosy view as Tony.

    But even in Tony's reportings you can see a change in his perception of what he thinks will happen to house prices.

    Not so positive about his shortage of supply theory as he was earlier in the year.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    May 2008
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    3,558

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Bluekiwi View Post
    But even in Tony's reportings you can see a change in his perception of what he thinks will happen to house prices.

    Not so positive about his shortage of supply theory as he was earlier in the year.
    This is what you would expect - as the situation changes (like the drop in immigration numbers) then the forecasts will change.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    212

    Default

    One might reasonably expect a well paid economist to take into account the fact that a global recovery would reduce the number of Kiwis coming home, and increase the Kiwis going overseas again. New immigrants have always been pretty steady, its the Kiwis who are the moving variable (excuse the pun!).

    Or should we just accept that all of these bank economists are just a cynically cheaper way for the banks to get their brands on the TV news than prime time advertising rates, and that they are not paid to be right, but to be interesting? (Much like Mr. Hickey, but that might cut too close to some egos to be accepted...)

  7. #7

    Default

    You have to wonder don't you?

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    14,834

    Default

    Surely! One cannot help but wonder why
    banks have econo-mists in their employ?
    Economic soothsayers - after-the-fact!
    .
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Dunedin
    Posts
    607

    Default

    Can't be me because last time Tony A. stated something similar to this in his newsletter I got several calls asking if he was referring to me.

    So I contacted my BNZ Regional manager and asked him if Tony was referring to me.

    The regional manager asked Tony who said NO, he wasn't referring to me.

    Some people have delighted in misquoting me as having said values would fall by 30 or 40%... that rumour has already been proven to be untrue.
    Kieran Trass

  10. #10
    Join Date
    May 2008
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    3,558

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by kieran View Post
    Some people have delighted in misquoting me as having said values would fall by 30 or 40%... that rumour has already been proven to be untrue.
    What about your call for investors to fix at 10% for 5 years as the rates were going up?


    Quote Originally Posted by Tony
    They may or may not now feel embarrassed about how bad their forecasts were but the point is they see an opportunity to restore some credibility by claiming they were merely mistaken in terms of timing and their forecast bad outcomes may still happen though in smaller versions.


 

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