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  1. #41
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    Sep 2004
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    Hastings
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    15,422

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    The story of which year was that, Cam, m'man?
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  2. #42
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    15,422

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    Jan 2010 was the original prediction.

    Stuff still has the story on its web pages.
    Quote Originally Posted by Stuff
    A leading economist believes New Zealand has an over-abundance of land and says prices will have to come down in the near future.
    Ten years on when apart and asunder
    Bang went guesses of a decade ago
    Econ-o-mists e'er make us chunder so
    For it's so plain just how little they know
    Last edited by Perry; 09-01-2020 at 09:12 PM.
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  3. #43
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    8,451

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    And then came a tidal wave of Chinese money.
    Squadly dinky do!

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
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    Don't put too much faith in economists' predictions, one economist says
    20 Mar 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Stuff
    Economists often get it wrong. There's good reason to think that the current claims suggesting a decrease in house prices could be incorrect. That might sound ironic, coming from an economist. But, let's look at the facts. Economists spend a lot of time forecasting the future. But, when you look back at previous predictions, especially in uncertain times, we often get it wrong. Property owners should, therefore, be wary of any forecasts that predict large and long-term declines in the New Zealand property market.
    A misunderstatment, at best. The first sentence should read:

    "Economists get it wrong, more often than not."
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  5. #45
    Join Date
    Apr 2018
    Posts
    258

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    Quote Originally Posted by Perry View Post
    "Economists get it wrong, more often than not."
    I think Bloomberg and economists should have said we SHOULD be receiving a major price correction, not we WILL. I do believe Bloomberg did not put a time frame though. But some have. Because it was going to take a major internal event or a major external economic event to put the correction into action. I think financially if you look a property market graphs its fairly obvious there are a lot of sectors (regions) that are ridiculously over priced. I think even the most one eyed investor can see that.

    Covid 19 is the kind of event that COULD do this. Especially given China is our major economic base now, not the USA like in 2002~

    So I thought when Jacinda got PM, she was HORRIBLE sounding on the world stage, but the harder things have gotten and thrown at her, the better she has got.

    Why would we have had any lock down if not full lock down. The only way to stop the spread is to remove potential hosts and with archaic measures, the only way to do this is to isolate people to family at maximum. We now know there is community spread, so good on her, level 4.

    This could not only save lives but it may be the stop of losing 40% of our property market. If we just let it live itself out we would have lost 1/5th of our population between 60-100yo.

    4 weeks minimum. Big deal. I think if it turns out 8 weeks still not a big deal. The sooner it is dealt with the sooner economies return to normal.

    We could have gone with what Britain was going to do and just it run its course and lose 100s of thousands of citizens. But even Britain realised this was non humane.

    So will be interesting to see if it has a major impact on the property market, given investors have pushed prices to the point of pull back, or the push back line in shares terms, in Auckland, if prices do dump 40%, young couples who scraped together $150k to buy a house on $100k family income, they will NOT be able to afford the extra $400-800k asked for by banks via extra mortgage repayments. I see the ORC dropped majorly (just after I bought a new PPOR grrrr), but even if you dropped mortgage rates to 1.5% that will likely just be enough to make repayments possible for some people and some property sectors (ie Wellinton suburbs with ridiculous medians ~ Remuera).

    My feeling is with Auckland losing 10-12% then flat lining it has already had a fairly substantial correction vs the rest of the country where investors moved to when Auck demand pushed back at the price point late 2016. Not saying Auckland and especially specific parts of the market wont lose 20% etc, but I feel the median price houses will lose the least. Normal homes with actual LAND in a median price point within feasible commuting. I think they will be fairly safe.

    Going to be an interesting few months.

    Perry please take care Bro, keep in touch and let me know if I can help in any way (outside money as I know Im a small fish in comparison haha) practically.

    Luckily my Mrs was already working from home 2 days a week and aside from Biology field work, her office work does not change. Just makes her expertise as a Senior Biologist (double PHD) harder to get to than being able to walk to her desk.
    Last edited by OnTheMove; 23-03-2020 at 02:25 PM.


 

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