Towns face struggle as population gets greyer
The Dominion Post
Small towns are facing a struggle to survive as families get smaller and populations get older. The ageing of the population and the rise of childless couples will translate into more households but, in some rural districts, fewer people, a study suggests.
The findings of a report by Statistics New Zealand yesterday on household projections to 2031 were met with concern with some rural mayors.
Wairoa Mayor Les Probert said the population decline was worrying but was a national trend. "We have a problem that many areas face: young people move away and we have a fairly large older population."
In the rural Hawke's Bay town, households are expected to drop by 300 to 3000 by 2031 and its population to fall by 1900.
"The choice is really whether we try to grow Wairoa, which is fairly difficult, or whether we focus on having a small prosperous community," Mr Probert said. "We are doing our best to maintain our population."
The study forecasts that there will be 619,000 one-person households by 2031, of which two-thirds will be made up of people aged 55 and over.
Although all regions are predicted to have more households by 2031, compared with population, Taranaki, West Coast and Southland are expected to have fewer people in total.
Of the 73 territorial authorities, nine will have fewer households than in 2006, and 32 are projected to face a population drop, including Otorohanga, South Waikato, Waitomo, Kawerau, Opotiki, Wairoa, Ruapehu and Rangitikei districts. In Rangitikei, there were 1700 two-parent families in 2006, but that is predicted to drop to 900 by 2031. Over the same timespan, one-person households are forecast to rise from 1500 to 1900.
Rangitikei Mayor Chalky Leary doubted the change would be that drastic but said it was a concern.
"It's a rural New Zealand issue. The kids round here are heading for the big smoke, whether that be Wellington, Palmerston North or London. We are getting an older and older population."
The average size of households is forecast to drop to 2.4 people, driven by the rise of couples without children and the decline of two-parent families.
POPULATION ON THE MOVE
Snapshot of NZ households by 2031:
* New Zealand's population is expected to reach 5.09 million by 2031.
* The number of households will be 2.09 million.
* Auckland will account for 62 per cent of our population growth and have 35 per cent of all households.
* The smallest average household size in 2031 is projected to be 1.8 people, in Buller. The highest will be in Manukau city with 3.0.
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/2604...s-greyer#share
The Dominion Post
Small towns are facing a struggle to survive as families get smaller and populations get older. The ageing of the population and the rise of childless couples will translate into more households but, in some rural districts, fewer people, a study suggests.
The findings of a report by Statistics New Zealand yesterday on household projections to 2031 were met with concern with some rural mayors.
Wairoa Mayor Les Probert said the population decline was worrying but was a national trend. "We have a problem that many areas face: young people move away and we have a fairly large older population."
In the rural Hawke's Bay town, households are expected to drop by 300 to 3000 by 2031 and its population to fall by 1900.
"The choice is really whether we try to grow Wairoa, which is fairly difficult, or whether we focus on having a small prosperous community," Mr Probert said. "We are doing our best to maintain our population."
The study forecasts that there will be 619,000 one-person households by 2031, of which two-thirds will be made up of people aged 55 and over.
Although all regions are predicted to have more households by 2031, compared with population, Taranaki, West Coast and Southland are expected to have fewer people in total.
Of the 73 territorial authorities, nine will have fewer households than in 2006, and 32 are projected to face a population drop, including Otorohanga, South Waikato, Waitomo, Kawerau, Opotiki, Wairoa, Ruapehu and Rangitikei districts. In Rangitikei, there were 1700 two-parent families in 2006, but that is predicted to drop to 900 by 2031. Over the same timespan, one-person households are forecast to rise from 1500 to 1900.
Rangitikei Mayor Chalky Leary doubted the change would be that drastic but said it was a concern.
"It's a rural New Zealand issue. The kids round here are heading for the big smoke, whether that be Wellington, Palmerston North or London. We are getting an older and older population."
The average size of households is forecast to drop to 2.4 people, driven by the rise of couples without children and the decline of two-parent families.
POPULATION ON THE MOVE
Snapshot of NZ households by 2031:
* New Zealand's population is expected to reach 5.09 million by 2031.
* The number of households will be 2.09 million.
* Auckland will account for 62 per cent of our population growth and have 35 per cent of all households.
* The smallest average household size in 2031 is projected to be 1.8 people, in Buller. The highest will be in Manukau city with 3.0.
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/2604...s-greyer#share
Here's the Statistics New Zealand Report: Subnational Family and Household Projections: 2006(base)–2031