How does one know when we are out of the financial c##p?

[Taupo Tiger]

OK all you experts on this 'ere site.

How do you know or can tell when we will be out of this 'ere little recession we are in.

I mean really out of it and not just seeing these little dead cat bounces that seem to be happening all the time.

For example the Dow was up nearly 6% yesterday and some experts are asking whether that was the bottom or not.

Are our banks safe from falling over yet?

There is so much conflicting evidence being reported that I am confused.

So all youse experts on financial things out there (nzpat, Commercial Dan etc) how can you tell when the country is out of the recession?

[CENTRAL55]

My guess: When we look back (in May) and say, ahah we were right last May when we said things looked as if they were improving cos they've gained steadily since then !!

[Green Fish]

I do not follow the widespread assumption that a period of time will pass and that things will then return to "normal". What is normal?

Answer: Prices in NZ in 2000, just before our banks started betting on the re NZD/YEN carry trade.

Those prices are "normal", and we are nowhere near them at present.

So renters should be thankful to still be renters - whilst many thousands of post-2000 buyers (like me) are completely stuffed.

[mortgage broker]

Things always move in cycles. Yes things look bad, but every decade has its little tragedy. We have been on the verge of nuclear war, verge of IT systems collapsing, nearly wiped out by AIDS, Asian flu, terrorists, invaded by aliens, in the path of a meteor.

So I wouldn't wait for the knobs to be on the right setting before living. Its not really all that bad and when this financial mess is over we will have another big thing to worry about.

Thats coming from a self employed mortgage broker, I am right in thick of it and I think things are pretty good for me. Better than about 80% of the global population I reckon.

[eri]

IMHO

i would think one of the first signs would be a stable share market that is starting to show a predictable upward trend

and probably also when gold to starts trending downwards

and the reserve bank is confident enough about the economy to let interests rates move back up to head off inflation

all 3 of those should show before the slower real estate market starts moving upwards

[CENTRAL55]

IMHO

i would think one of the first signs would be a stable share market that is starting to show a predictable upward trend

Sorry but I disagree with your version of "stable". If it's stable then it isn't trending up, down or anywhere. IMHO this is a real part of the problem we have, the "fact" that things "must" trend UP, I would ask "why"? Are the companies doing their job any better ? making better products ? making more profit ? employing more people so being more "socially responsible" ? The answer (usually) to all these questions is more often than not NO, so why should their share price go up ? Purely because "speculators" expect their two bobs worth on top of the Company dividend which is all they "signed up for" when they purchased the shares. Same with the housing market, land sales, etc etc etc. In my opinion the whole basis for our current crisis is the belief that endless profits are both necessary and possible, it's turned the world into a huge pyramid scheme that is guaranteed to fail again and again until we change the system.

[Baron Silas Greenback]

Things always move in cycles. Yes things look bad, but every decade has its little tragedy. We have been on the verge of nuclear war, verge of IT systems collapsing, nearly wiped out by AIDS, Asian flu, terrorists, invaded by aliens, in the path of a meteor.

So I wouldn't wait for the knobs to be on the right setting before living. Its not really all that bad and when this financial mess is over we will have another big thing to worry about.

Thats coming from a self employed mortgage broker, I am right in thick of it and I think things are pretty good for me. Better than about 80% of the global population I reckon.

Well said, and good attitude.

You could spend yo entire life predicting doom of one type or another.

[Badger]

OK all you experts on this 'ere site.

How do you know or can tell when we will be out of this 'ere little recession we are in.

I mean really out of it and not just seeing these little dead cat bounces that seem to be happening all the time.

For example the Dow was up nearly 6% yesterday and some experts are asking whether that was the bottom or not.

Are our banks safe from falling over yet?

There is so much conflicting evidence being reported that I am confused.

So all youse experts on financial things out there (nzpat, Commercial Dan etc) how can you tell when the country is out of the recession?

This bear market has at least 20-30 years to wring out the imbalances in all economies on a planetary scale...

Nothing will really change though untill the way we do banking changes, and thats along way away...

The current fix's like "bail outs" and "quantative easing" "one day off out off ten" and "build a bike track" with gigantic corporate windfarms powering electric cars to a supposed green utopia will only extend the problems out further...

When the idea of *growth economics* is finally put to rest that will perhaps be a start to move in a different very over due direction...

[muppet]

But don't things run in seven year cycles?

[Badger]

There are bigger cycles than seven year cycles...

[cube]

But don't things run in seven year cycles?

Yes.

7 years of good times.
7 years of bad news
7 years of hoping that things will get better
7 years of despair
7 years of regret
7 years of wishing we'd never heard of property
7 years trying ostrich farming, possum pelts or options trading
then back to good ol' property again

[mattnz]

Peter Schiff's thoughts are that just at the time everyone thinks that everything has recovered will be the calm before the storm, when rampant inflation is just about to start.