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  1. #1
    Join Date
    May 2004
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    Bay Of Plenty, NZ
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    Default Jobless crisis could hit 11.2%

    22 February 2009

    Prime Minister John Key's jobs summit will be warned unemployment could rise to 11.2 percent over the next two years - a rate that exceeds the most pessimistic forecasts and is higher than the number of jobless in the last significant recession in the early 1990s.

    The warning comes from the New Zealand Institute in documents prepared for the summit, and is based on new research published in the United States last month on recessions originating in financial crises.

    Institute research director Benedikte Jensen said work done by eminent US economist Kenneth Rogoff showed such recessions were prolonged and associated with "profound" declines in output and employment.

    On average, real house prices declined 35%, with the decline stretching over six years. Equity market downturns lasted for at least three-and-a-half years and unemployment rose, on average, by seven percentage points.
    http://www.stuff.co.nz/4855563a13.html
    Patience is a virtue.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
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    346

    Default

    It is barely higher than the high of the last significant recession at 10.9% and more than likely in this major downturn.

  3. #3
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    May 2004
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    Default Key questions 11pc unemployment prediction

    23 February 2009

    Prime Minister John Key doubts unemployment will reach the dire highs predicted in an economic think-tank report.

    The New Zealand Institute yesterday warned of New Zealand's vulnerability to the global recession, saying unemployment could reach about 11 percent in the next two years.

    The institute's report followed last week's gloomy crown accounts, a government warning to the state sector it won't be getting more money for pay rises and comments by Finance Minister Bill English that restraint will be paramount in his first budget in May.
    http://www.stuff.co.nz/4856806a13.html
    Patience is a virtue.

  4. #4
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    Jan 2004
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    Whangarei
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    5,867

    Default

    11% Pffft... go visit Kaitaia where unemployment has been 30% for years!

  5. #5
    Join Date
    May 2004
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    Bay Of Plenty, NZ
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    Default

    11% Pffft... go visit Kaitaia where unemployment has been 30% for years!


    Patience is a virtue.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    Wellington NZ
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    1,802

    Default

    ...didnt the knowledge economy make it up there?

    oh hang on it must have been out sourced to Asia...

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
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    1,545

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by mattnz View Post
    It is barely higher than the high of the last significant recession at 10.9% and more than likely in this major downturn.
    You could probably add on to the new stats all the sickness beneficiaries that in the last downturn were on the dole. Remember Labour swapped them over (the unemployable!)
    Find The Trend Whose Premise Is False - Then Bet Against It

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    8,330

    Default

    I reckon John Key is playing this down. 'It won't be carnage' was the heading in Saturday's Herald. Well he's unlikely to come out and say 'It's going to be carnage!' now is he?

    I think many governments around the world are doing the same thing. They're all quite worried but they're all putting on a smiley face for the masses.

    David


 

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