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Thread: Interest Rates

  1. #5961
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
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    826

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    I see my bank Westpac 5yr down to 3.89% basically what I signed up for 1yr back JUL19 ... wow thats brilliant longer term hedge as rates will at some stage before long will be forced up
    here prob 1-2yrs out from present ...

    As unemployment rises 20%+ / loan defaults hit record highs in turn dropping NZ credit rating.. its all looking very dicey we aren't getting past it as easy as we did during the GFC with little pain

    We have far too much employment in the sectors that will be hit the hardest.. some 20% kiwis employed in property+tourism sectors lent alone retail
    Last edited by JBM; 26-03-2020 at 01:51 PM.

  2. #5962

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    Hi JBM - I predicted wrongly that interest rates would sky rocked after the last financial crisis in 2008 - in a number of places they tried to increase rates only to have them quickly come back down.

    Why do you think rates will raise this time ?

  3. #5963
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    Apr 2004
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    Quote Originally Posted by Don't believe the Hype View Post
    Hi JBM - I predicted wrongly that interest rates would sky rocked after the last financial crisis in 2008 - in a number of places they tried to increase rates only to have them quickly come back down.

    Why do you think rates will raise this time ?
    Paper money and out-of-control national debts have always devalued the currency and caused major inflation(which needs higher rates to fight) ... now GFC was bad where the credit markets came close to collapse ... but going off the present operations from the FED their is talk we could see a bail-out some 10X larger than the GFC!! ..so you have those factors of just trillions more currency flooding into economy while businesses are going out of business = less products less competition =higher prices etc

    Then we have the issue of the lenders with huge leverage in the present bubble housing market esp. in Aus ... not sure if your've watched "The Big Short" Movie
    But it can be like domino's falling .. and we have so much bad news hitting I can't see the BOND market staying good for much longer.. and with the FED at ZERO they can't go any lower>> like they did with the much smaller GFC so surely the real risks of holding these HUGE debts must demand a higher rates of return or why hold?

  4. #5964

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    Thanks - JBM... so to distill it the economic reasons I feared higher interest rates in the GFC still apply its is simply the scale of the bail out being far larger which makes the chances of higher interest rates more likely.

    Is that what you're saying?

  5. #5965
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    Apr 2004
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    826

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    Quote Originally Posted by Don't believe the Hype View Post
    Thanks - JBM... so to distill it the economic reasons I feared higher interest rates in the GFC still apply its is simply the scale of the bail out being far larger which makes the chances of higher interest rates more likely.

    Is that what you're saying?
    Well a major driver yes but I could be wrong and we could see negative rates introduced.. but I find that hard to compute here in little NZ who will be happy to take are growing debts(when we roll over govt bonds etc)and risks tied to are nations high debt to incomes and poor savings record... NZ love affair with property is coming back to bite.. primary industries will really be the backbone that will dictate how we come out of this mess IMHO

  6. #5966
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    15,438

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigWal_v2 View Post
    3-11-2018.
    The reasons interest rates are likely to rise worldwide are . . . .
    If only we knew what the future will bring, eh?

    Chinese fortune cookies, anyone?

    Quote Originally Posted by chook View Post
    23-10-2018
    With the NZ dollar tracking down, and the US economy strengthening, interest rates could start to rise ??
    Oops - cancel that.

    Quote Originally Posted by GLin View Post
    4-4-19
    It's a signal the whole economy is going down south. Expect redundancies from NZ companies to accelerate.
    That was in relation to the OCR, but is occurring, even though for quite different reasons.
    Last edited by Perry; 04-04-2020 at 08:52 AM.
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  7. #5967
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
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    826

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    I see some sub 3% rates 1-2yr fixed turning up... looking good for my re-fixing in JUL

  8. #5968
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Wellington
    Posts
    423

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    Quote Originally Posted by JBM View Post
    I see some sub 3% rates 1-2yr fixed turning up... looking good for my re-fixing in JUL
    Which bank?

  9. #5969
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Torbay, Auckland
    Posts
    3,938

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    I am happy with my 3.05% for 18 months.

    No commentators expect "much" decline from here, and banks cant even process new loan apps so they are not wanting to compete with specials - at the moment.

    Some feel there could be a slight drop to maybe 2.95% latter this year.
    Paul Magill B.com
    Bluekiwi Property Consulting

  10. #5970
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Posts
    165

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bluekiwi View Post
    banks cant even process new loan apps
    Is that true?

    I had BNZ call me the other week asking when I would like to complete my application.


 

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